opening lead

[zasanya]

[hv=d=w&v=b&n=sqj108hak643d1085c9&w=sa73h87dj7cqj10742]266|200|Scoring: IMP

p-p-1nt-p-

 

3nt

p-p-p

lead ♥10 [/hv]

 

Your leads : 4th highest , top of sequence, top of internal sequence, low from honor, high from doubleton, MUD.

What card do you play now; if ♥K what next?

[jillybean]

10♥ looks like lead from 10:x, I would return 5♦

attacking ♠ looks good but I dont have enough entries

[SoTired]

Well - what card did declarer play under the ♥K? If declarer played the 5 or 2, I return a ♥4 (original 4th best) and hope partner has ♥109x. If declarer dropped the J or Q, I will cash my ace next, hoping partner started with ♥10952. I will be fooled if declarer drops the Q or J from QJ92. If so, I will return the ♠Q, but it will probably be too late. Only if declarer drops the ♥9 will I smell a rat.

[HeartA]

SQ to knock out the only entry in dummy.

[SoTired]

ooops... wasn't looking...

[Finch]

This is a good hand for keeping opening leads simple.

My partners just don't lead from 10x on this sort of auction. They wouldn't usually lead from 109x either. They lead their longest suit. If it equally likely that partner has selected a doubleton or a 4-card suit, you give yourself some very tough problems in situations such as this one.

 

Seeing the 87 in dummy, I simply assume that partner has Q109x and win the king then return a low one to ensure they are unblocked. (If partner has a nasty habit of leading an honour from 109xx and declarer plays the Q or J on the first round I cash the other top one and trust partner to unblock).

 

Returning a spade to take the ace off dummy requires that partner has both the king of spades and a club stop, as well has having led from a short suit.

[1eyedjack]

If partner has one of the Club honours (either Ace or King, and with or without the Spade King) and the Hearts are running, then a Spade switch does not look to cost. We will still come to the Hearts.

 

If partner has the Spade King and either the Diamond Ace or King, then a Spade switch will beat the contract even though the Clubs are running and even if the Hearts were running.

 

If partner has the Spade King and one of the Club honours (Ace or King) then a Spade switch is required, for reasons already stated.

 

If 1N is 15-17 then partner rates to have 5-7 points, so any of the above scenarios is possible in theory, although the choice of lead undoubtedly affects the particular odds.

 

The times that a Spade switch costs are

1) when Declarer has running Clubs and 9 top tricks but 5 top Heart losers, and

2) when declarer has a club "hole", Spade King, and single Heart guard. Even then he may have some work to do in the red suits to work up to 9 tricks

 

Personally I go up with Heart King at trick 1, and switch to Spades if declarer follows low, but I have the "sp" ready.

[mikeh]

I agree with Frances.

 

Even if we assume (erroneously, in my view) that the 'return a ♠' layout is as likely to lead to a set as 'return a ♥', the psychology is all wrong. If we return a ♠ and declarer has something like Kxxx Jx Axxx AKx, how would your partnership feel? Partner has made an entirely normal lead; your side has 5 tricks off the top, and you switched.

 

OTOH, any intelligent partner will sympathize with a ♥ continuation, so even when it is wrong, it is normal. It is far better to play it straight and occasionally lose by NOT doing something brilliant than it is to try to be brilliant and fail.

[1eyedjack]

I am quite happy to be convinced that a Heart continuation is correct, but I would tend to discount psychological factors. Time and again I see partners getting upset because I did not blindly lead back their suit "for the sake of partnership harmony". Sod it, if they are so small minded then I am minded to find another partner.

[mikeh]

I am quite happy to be convinced that a Heart continuation is correct, but I would tend to discount psychological factors.  Time and again I see partners getting upset because I did not blindly lead back their suit "for the sake of partnership harmony".  Sod it, if they are so small minded then I am minded to find another partner.

I strongly recommend a different partner in the cases to which you refer: but even the best partners tend to be discouraged when playing with anyone who chooses the 'brilliant' over the mundane , absent an indication that brilliance is the higher percentage choice. And the ♠ switch is a classic example of that tendency, imho.

[1eyedjack]

You may be right. Personally I think he may get discouraged if I make whichever play doesn't work, if he has that tendency. If he has the black kings he will be discouraged if I continue Hearts, and tell me to look at dummy and doesn't the spade switch stand out etc etc.

[mike777]

If we have not bid a suit I notice I tend to get much better results leading from strength rather than making a blind lead hoping to find partner's suit or making a passive lead.

 

OTOH many players in the Forum tend to make passive leads very often as opposed to very seldom.

[whereagles]

Indeed. This isn't the time to try and be 'clever'. There are many chances open in the heart suit, so let's try the simple solution first. K and another.

[jillybean]

This is a good hand for keeping opening leads simple.

My partners just don't lead from 10x on this sort of auction.  They wouldn't usually lead from 109x either.  They lead their longest suit.  If it equally likely that partner has selected a

Seeing the 87 in dummy, I simply assume that partner has Q109x and win the king then return a low one to ensure they are unblocked.

Ah, I didnt realise 10 from Q109x is standard, if I had to lead from this I would lead the X :(

 

jb

[Winstonm]

It appears partner has no long, good suit to lead so you would assume some type of flattish distribution 3334 or 3343; however, Q109x of hearts cannot be ruled out either nor 1098x of hearts. A very difficult problem. The only way to guess is to create hands that are likely - assuming partner holds 6-8 HCP.

 

If declarer holds: Kxx, Jx, Axxx, AKxx we have to cash now.

 

Some presumptions:

 

if partner held Kxxx, 109x, KJxx, xxx he most likely would have led a spade or diamond.

if Kxx, 109x, Kxxx, xxxx, most likely a diamond.

if Kxx, 109xx, Kxx, xxxx most likely a heart.

if xxx, Q109x, Jxx, Kxxx most likely a heart.

 

With partner marked with 6-8 HCP he would not be so weak as to attack a shortish suit in hopes of hitting partner's length as one might do when holding 0-3 HCP. It is also unlikely he has made a passive lead unless he holds something like KJx, 109x, KJx, xxxx.

 

In short, I am going to win the King and return a 4th best heart unless declarer drops the J or Q - this caters to partner having led from Q109x, 109xx (Q or J from declarer), or 109x (when partner holds A or K of clubs.)