Look deeper

[pclayton]

Played in a TG yesterday where we were (mostly) outclassed. Pard was acting like a lunatic, but we didn't lose by a lot. Here's an interesting hand I played:

 

[hv=d=e&v=e&n=sxxhxdq8xxxcakt7x&s=stxxhaqtxd9xxcj9x]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

RHO opens with a 15-17 NT and LHO transfers with 2♥. Pard comes in with 2N. You take a preference with 3♣ and LHO smacks it.

 

You wince as the opening lead of a small heart is made; RHO plays the K and you win the A. After pitching a spade on the QH, you see that this hand actually has a play.

 

Take more time than I did at the table and try to reconstruct as much about the unseen hands as you can. Both opponents are very good.

[mikeh]

We have received a very, very strange lead. It sure looks like LHO is 5=3 in the majors and RHO is 3=5. LHO lacks a clear ♠ lead so does not hold AK or KQ or QJ9. He did not make the 'normal' lead of a trump. That suggests that he is very worried that a trump lead will be even more dangerous that the clearly dangerous ♥ lead.

 

The 'normal' play for me at this moment would be to lead ♦: I have to lose 3 tricks in the suit on all lies of the cards, so get that going now before dummy gets tapped.

 

But if I do that, I am going to end up having to play for the trump Q to drop doubleton. Can I do better?

 

 

I do not think that I can hope to win if RHO has 3♦, because that gives LHO 3 trump, and the normal end position will have me on dummy with good ♦ and me in hand with a good trump, but LHO sitting behind me with a small trump...and I cannot shut that out: I'd lose 1♠, 3♦ and that low trump.

 

So I think I need trump 2=3 and that means ♦ are 3=2.

 

I play a ♦ at trick 3. RHO wins (let's assume he wins the 10 or J...see below if he wins a top honour)and plays on ♠. I take the tap on the second round, exit in ♦, take the tap and exit again: now LHO is on lead. He leads a ♥ and I ruff once again: reducing to the 2 good ♦ and the AKtrump opposite a stiff ♥ and J9x ♣. I cash the AK, dropping LHO's Qx and lead a good ♦ through RHO. I overrruff and cash the high ♥...which required that LHO's ♥ be Jxx.

 

All of this means that LHO has to hold a fairly specific hand: something like:

 

Kxxxx Jxx K10x Qx and RHO AQJ Kxxxx AJ xxx

 

But, of course, RHO might hold AK tight in ♦.... I will have catered to this by leading a low ♦ towards dummy and ducking at trick 3. The play thereafter is actually pretty easy: I'd win the return (eventually) and cash the top trump and concede 2♦ tricks... even if the opps get a ♦ trick, they do so at the cost of a tempo, and a ruff from the long trump, such that I lose only 1♠, 2♦ and a ruff.

 

So my line caters to the unlikely example I gave above as well as, for example, AJxxx xxx J10x Qx opposite KQx KJxxx AK xxx.

[ArcLight]

We have 16 HCP they have 24. RHO has ~16, LHO~8.

 

LHO knows this, and didnt led a trump to cut down ruffs. Either he's void and made a Zia double and theer si a 5-0 trump break, or LHO has the trump Q,

 

LHO didn't lead Spades so he probably has an unsupported Ace.

 

Thats 6 of his ~8 HCP, maybe a Spade J or Q also, given his length, maybe.

Also, from the lead of a low♥ indiating an honor maybe LHO has the Jack.

That may be all his HCP.

 

Spades are 5-3

and hearts are 3-5

With 4 hearts LHO would bid Stayman.

 

 

LHO is 5=3=(3/2 or 2/3)

RHO is 3=5=(3/2 or 2/3)

 

 

The lead was fortuitous. Im thinking of a dummy reversal.

 

Entries to hand to finesse in trumps are a problem!

Can't pull trumps now, as we need to run ♦ and don't want to get tapped in other suits in dummy.

 

Lead some ♦ maybe they ruff with a long trump. After Dimes are gone, place A K of trumps.

 

Play for West to have a Doubleton Q of trumps.

 

LHO has

AJxxx

Jxx

xxx

Qx

 

RHO has the rest

[joshs]

weeeee

[mikeh]

weeeeeeeeee: edited in response to josh edit :)

[cherdano]

All of this means that LHO has to hold a fairly specific hand: something like:

 

Kxxxx Jxx K10x Qx and RHO AQJ Kxxxx AJ xxx

Wouldn't LHO rather lead a spade from this hand?

 

I will take a stab at assuming that RHO doesn't have the ♥J, for he might play the J from KJxxx. I would think LHO needs to have ♠A, for not leading the suit in preference to his heart lead. He also needs the ♣Q for not leading a trump. That means he can't have a high diamond honor. Can he have ♦JTx? I am not sure, he might lead from that instead from ♥Jxx, but it's not so clear since he probably knows diamonds are dummy's second suit.

If LHO has Axxxx Jxx Jx Qxx I don't think I can make it without misdefense for the reasons given by Mike. Misdefense isn't impossible, though: Ruff a heart, lead a diamond -- RHO may hop up from AKT. Repeat... (Take the likely spade tap in dummy, and lead a diamond again.) In fact, this line looks pretty reasonable, as it also caters legitimately to Axxxx Jxx JTx Qx.

 

Arend

[1eyedjack]

A reasonable distribution that can allow me to make is East holding

[hv=s=saqxhkjxxxdakcxxx]133|100|[/hv]

A Spade or Diamond lead would beat it, and a Heart or Club lead lets it through. I have no reason to believe that he has made the best opening lead, so I play for that.

[1eyedjack]

By the way, for what it is worth I looked up the hand and shoved it though DF, confirming that against best defence (on the actual lie of the cards) there is no way to make, even after Heart lead.

[pclayton]

By the way, for what it is worth I looked up the hand and shoved it though DF, confirming that against best defence (on the actual lie of the cards) there is no way to make, even after Heart lead.

This is right. You can't legitimately make the hand against most layouts. :( Sorry if I implied you could.

 

I think the best shot is to take the spade pitch, hook the club (1x) and draw trump and lead a low diamond off the board. RHO may pop with AKx (what he actually had) and you got him.

 

Of course you can also legitimately make with AK tight too. It's also perfectly logical for LHO not to lead a diamond from JT tight with a trump holding like Qxx.

 

Yes you can divine a lot about the unseen hands, but it doesn't do you a lot of good ;)

[winkle]

I think the best shot is to take the spade pitch, hook the club (1x) and draw trump and lead a low diamond off the board. RHO may pop with AKx (what he actually had) and you got him.

If you draw three trumps, the hand is an open book and there is no way righty is going to pop the diamond king. On the other hand, the line exposes you to -300 when you could've gotten out for -100.

 

[edit] Maybe I misunderstood and you mean drawing just two rounds of trumps.

[pclayton]

I think the best shot is to take the spade pitch, hook the club (1x) and draw trump and lead a low diamond off the board. RHO may pop with AKx (what he actually had) and you got him.

If you draw three trumps, the hand is an open book and there is no way righty is going to pop the diamond king. On the other hand, the line exposes you to -300 when you could've gotten out for -100.

 

[edit] Maybe I misunderstood and you mean drawing just two rounds of trumps.

But it doesn't help to draw only 2 trump since they can score a diamond ruff.

 

Anyway, the hand is something of a lost cause anyway.

[winkle]

But it doesn't help to draw only 2 trump since they can score a diamond ruff.

That's ok. Even if they get the diamond ruff you're going to make, losing 1 spade, 2 diamonds and a ruff.

 

This is still assuming righty popped the king.