1eyedjack Posted September 18, 2006 Report Share Posted September 18, 2006 [hv=d=e&v=n&n=s98765ht65djcq954&w=skq42h98daqt92ckj&e=sajhakj742d43ca72&s=st3hq3dk8765ct863]399|300|Scoring: IMPE...S...W...N1♥..P...2♦..P2N..P...3♠..P3N..P...4N..P6♥..P...6N..PP...P Lead ♣3[/hv] Drawing a veil over the bidding, which is essentially natural (2N = 15+ and would not normally have a 6th Heart), this hand cropped up in a sequence of 13 consecutive hands on which we scored positive IMPs on each hand with this exception, when most of it was thrown away by going down in a slam that most of the room was bidding and making. I was West, and probably should have passed 6♥. I read the 6th Heart accurately but was worried that there may be 2 Heart losers in 6♥ on a bad break when there were 12 tricks elsewhere in NT. Probably fallacious reasoning, but for better or worse you are in 6N, not 6♥. Those in the making slam were divided between 6N and 6♥ anyway. We took a failing (free) club finesse at trick 1, a deep diamond finesse at trick 2, the T losing to the singleton J, and later a losing heart finesse. Rather an unlucky combined set of circumstances, but probably the non-optimal play for all that. Any takers for the best play? It is easy to see how to make with all 4 hands exposed, but you only have the luxury of seeing the E-W cards. I have a feeling that playing ♣J from dummy at trick 1 was probably an error, in that if N has the Q then you probably want to win trick 1 in dummy rather than in hand, but hey, the J might have held, so I really don't know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awm Posted September 18, 2006 Report Share Posted September 18, 2006 Seems like you were playing for diamonds coming home for 4 tricks, or the heart finesse on without both diamond honors offside. With this line basically: (1) You're down if diamonds are KJ offside, roughly 25%.(2) You make if diamonds are KJ(xx) onside, also roughly 25%.(3) You make if diamonds are Kx(x) or Jx(xx) onside, roughly 40%.(4) You make if diamonds are Kxxx(x) onside and the heart hook is on, around 5%. Tallying this up you get about 70% to make. A better line is to start by playing on hearts. I suggest leading the ♥AK. With this line: (1) You make if hearts are 3-2 or singleton Q/T. This is roughly 80% ignoring 5-0 breaks.(2) You make if diamonds are KJ(x) onside when hearts don't break, roughly 5%.(3) You make if diamonds are Kx(x) or Jx(xx) onside with the long hearts in LHO hand, around 4%. This is something like 89% to make. I've ignored 5-0 heart breaks but you can switch lines early after someone shows out on the first heart in these cases. On the actual hand the second line makes all 13 tricks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1eyedjack Posted September 19, 2006 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2006 Your analysis looks good to me. One point of care might be what card to play from dummy at trick 1. If you play ♣K then you must unblock the ♠AJ before cashing the top Hearts. Otherwise if South wins the third Heart with ♥Q (the suit breaking 3-2) and exits with ♦x through dummy's ♦AQ you would be forced to try the ♦ finesse. So, contrary to my previous instinct, playing ♣J at trick 1 seems to be right. If it wins then all options are preserved. If it is covered by Q and A then communications to both hands are preserved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finch Posted September 20, 2006 Report Share Posted September 20, 2006 No, I don't think it actually matters. You can win the CK at trick 1 before playing on hearts. If after cashing the AK of hearts you discover they are playing for 1 (or 0) losers you then unblock spades before playing a third heart. Now you have the CA as an entry to the hearts and the DA as an entry to the spades. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkle Posted September 20, 2006 Report Share Posted September 20, 2006 Your analysis looks good to me. One point of care might be what card to play from dummy at trick 1. If you play ♣K then you must unblock the ♠AJ before cashing the top Hearts. Otherwise if South wins the third Heart with ♥Q (the suit breaking 3-2) and exits with ♦x through dummy's ♦AQ you would be forced to try the ♦ finesse. So, contrary to my previous instinct, playing ♣J at trick 1 seems to be right. If it wins then all options are preserved. If it is covered by Q and A then communications to both hands are preserved. The ♣K is the right card to play at trick one, precisely because you're cold if hearts can come in for one loser. If you apply the analysis you did on the ♣K to the ♣J, you'll find that sometimes you have to take the diamond finesse even when hearts come in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finch Posted September 20, 2006 Report Share Posted September 20, 2006 One of us is missing something....Win the club in hand, and play 3 rounds of hearts (assuming they come in for 1 loser). You have the AJ of spades as entries to hand to run the hearts, and you have 2 minor suit entries to table (CK and DA) to get back to the spade suit; they can't remove both of them after winning the heart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkle Posted September 20, 2006 Report Share Posted September 20, 2006 One of us is missing something....Win the club in hand, and play 3 rounds of hearts (assuming they come in for 1 loser). You have the AJ of spades as entries to hand to run the hearts, and you have 2 minor suit entries to table (CK and DA) to get back to the spade suit; they can't remove both of them after winning the heart. Oops. You are right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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