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Double or not?


dcvetkov

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I would not consider double. I'm too likely to get in trouble when partner bids some number of hearts. I think the choice here is really between pass and 3NT.

 

If partner has singleton diamond and enough for game, she will balance on this auction. If partner has two diamonds and 12-13 points (or more) she will probably also balance. The danger is that partner has three diamonds, or that partner has two diamonds and something like 10-11 high. Of course, a 3NT bid carries its own risks, particularly that LHO has most of the outstanding values and manages a double. There is also an issue here that suits are likely to break badly and missing kings or queens tend to be behind me, so that the normal 26 hcp and two balanced hands may not actually make 3NT.

 

My guess here is that 3NT will make about half the time. But some of the times 3NT is making, partner would manage a balancing bid, and some of the times 3NT is failing LHO will find a double. I think passing is the least of evils here, although it's not hard to construct examples where pass is the wrong choice.

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3N. Hopefully we can shut out the diamonds with my Axx. I've been murdered in these 3N's before, but I've had a lot more where I catch pard with the expected 9 count and it rolls.

 

I always find it curious that this hand overcalls NT over a 1, 2 AND 3 opening. Its also my experience that the 1N overcall is the one that gets most frequently punished.

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