Defensive Problem

[joshs]

Both Vul,

You hold AJT98x T - J876xx

 

In first seat you choose to pre-empt in spades (I chose to open 3S, others might choose 2S and judge later whether to bid clubs, some might elect to pass and guess later)

LHO overcalls my 3S bid with 3NT and RHO raises to 6N.

 

Partner lead the spade 7 and dummy has:

Problem 1:Kxx AJ8xx AKx T9

 

Declarer plays low from dummy at trick 1.

What card do you play at:

1a. IMPS

1b. MPs

 

Problem 2: change the heart 8 in dummy to the heart 7

[bid_em_up]

I'm not so sure the form of scoring matters much in either case (hand one or two). If it makes, you're screwed, no matter what. There is not a lot of reason to be concerned about conceding an overtrick but certainly, you must attempt to beat 6N.

 

LHO has overcalled 3N on what? Qxx K?? QJ??? AKQ? While we dont know his exact distribution at this point, I would guess it to be 3-2-5-3 or 3-3-4-3/3-3-3-4. While he certainly may hold 4 hearts, my feeling is that he doesnt. (Most players will X holding the other major and good hand).

 

On hand one, I would play the spade 8, conceding 1 spade trick to declarer and hope that the bad suit breaks do him in.

 

Hand two is a little trickier because now partner very may well be able to prevent the run of the hearts, but if we duck the spade, he will not have a 2nd one to return to us. I think on this one, I win the spade A, and return the 8 (or possibly the 7/8 of clubs, there is no way declarer is ducking this to the 9/10 in dummy at this point in the play).

 

Of course, I have been wrong before! :D

 

Edit: A little more thought says that it may be best to play the 8 on either hand(and definetely on the first). If NT were to be played by RHO, you cannot lead a spade at trick one without presenting him the ability to develop 2 spade tricks (if needed).

 

Since the 3♠ opening was a non-standard opening, you may have already gained in your auction. It is entirely possible that you have gained a trick by having LHO bid NT first, ensuring that you can hold the opponents to only one spade trick. However, I am not sure that this factor would come to mind at the table, at trick 1, and would probably play as first suggested.

[whereagles]

If it makes, you're screwed, no matter what.

Now, that is very, very true!

 

As for what I'd play.. laterzzz

[kenberg]

Here are a couple of layouts that seem reasonable. The heart spots are not specified, I'll say why.

 

[hv=w=sqxxhkqxdqxxxxcak&e=skxxhajxxxdakxct9]266|100|[/hv]

 

[hv=w=sqxxhkqxdqxxxxcak&e=skxxhajxxxdakxct9]266|100|[/hv]

 

If you go up with the ace of spades, declarer wins the return, plays one round of hearts, and spreads his hand.

 

Suppose you duck. Declarer takes his Q and has another ten tricks on top.

 

Consider the first hand: Declarer runs his hearts, pitching spades. Truly partner has a discarding problem but presumably if you pitch the 3-2 of clubs, or whatever the bottom two spots are, this will be count and not attitude. Partner saves all five of his dimaonds and now it comes down to the spots. Declarer cashes a high diamond and now knows the distribution exactly. Perhaps he can endplay partner by cashing the top clubs, dummy's remaining top diamond, and putting pard in with a D spot. Perhaps he can, perhaps he can't. But if you play the ace at T1, declarer has no problems.

 

 

Second hand: Now partner has six diamonds and two clubs. In theory, declarer can make the hand. He ducks a diamond early while he still has the transportation to then cash out the high diamonds, then the hearts, ending on the board squeezing you in clubs and spades (the d duck rectified the count and parter has only two clubs, the threats are the long club in hand and the spade honor on the board.). In reality this seems unlikely. If declarer runs hearts first, pitching spades and hoping for a favorable discard, he no longer has the transportation to cash a high d, observe the split, then duck a d and cash all the dimaonds anding on the board. So he should go down here as long as partner reads the situation well. Granted it could get tricky if declarer has good diamond spots.

 

 

Both the above hands seem perfectly reasonable possibilities.

 

 

Now about the 7 and 8 of hearts. Let's try the 7 first. Declarer hold three spades (we certainly assume he does). If we duck the spade, will we lose the ace? Declarer takes the Q and takes what he can take. If he has three hearts, he can perhaps run the hearts and toss off the spades from hand and maybe you never see your ace. But if his heart holding is weaker, say Kxx, he cannot run the hearts and so, after he gets what he can get, he likely will be in his hand still holding a spade. So the spade may not be lost. With the 8, this gets tougher.

 

I think it is generally best to duck, but I have not thought through enough hands to say this with any confidence.

 

 

An afterthought: With the second hand I give, declarer might play the king from the board at T1. You have to rise, else he can establish another spade trick and claim. But then the count is rectified and you will eventually be squeezed in spades and clubs, again since partner has only two clubs. I suppose it is not likely declarer would do that.

[Codo]

If I win the spade now, I got one trick but present my opps with two.

If I duck now, they will have one trick and I will win zero.

As both opponents hands seems to be quite balanced and all suits will break really ugly, I would believe, that they are really desperate about tricks. So I will duck and hope, that they won´t have twelve tricks to cash.

[kenberg]

Still w/o claiming I know what is best, here is another possibility of interest (to me):

 

[hv=w=sqxxhkxxdqjxxxcak&e=skxxhaj8xxdakxct9]266|100|[/hv]

 

If you duck the spade, declarer can make the hand: Take the Q, cash the king of hearts, finesse the 8 and claim for 1+5+4+2=12 tricks. He can do this, but will he? Playing to the 8 is right as they lie but he will probably at least consider other options.

 

On the other hand, if you win the ace and return, say, a club then declarer can test the diamonds, find the split, and realize he only needs to finesse the jack of hearts since if N holds the Q9xx of hearts he will be squeezed in diamonds and hearts on the run of the spades and clubs. He does still have to worry about an original QT on his right however, so maybe he will go wrong. Taking the ace at T1 relieved him of the necessity of playing to the 8, however.

 

Change the 8 to a 7 and now the squeeze still works if you take your ace, and I doubt the hand can be made if you duck.

 

I suppose I should work up a few hands where taking the ace is mandatory. They surely exist, but the ones where the duck is right seem to come to mind with less effort. The danger of a red suit squeeze against partner if you take the ace of spades seems to be pretty realistic, as does the possibility that declarer won't even need it to find 12 tricks.

[mikeh]

Glad I am not making this guess at the table.

 

Matchpoints, the decision is, I think, easy.

 

There is no reason to think that 6N will not be a popular contract: RHO has enough to drive to slam and his ♠ holding is such that he would not usually opt for a ♥ contract even if given lots of room... now, had you passed and never bid, maybe he'd play a 5-4 fit in ♥, but that scenario seems unlikely.

 

So I disagree, strongly, with those who say that you are screwed at mps if they make: I would not expect a good board if they make but, especially in a decent field, it won't be a terrible result UNLESS they make an overtrick.

 

OTOH, going plus will be an excellent result.

 

To me, the risk of an overtrick arising from ducking is much greater than the chances that a duck will result in setting the contract. Seeing the overtrick possibility is routine anytime declarer has at least 3♣ headed by the AK. Give him a horrible 3N overcall of Qxx K9x QJxx AKx or a more plausible normal overcall of Qxx KQx QJxx AKx, and watch what happens after your duck and the run of 9 red tricks... you are crushed in the black suits.

 

As against that, it is not very easy to come up with 3N overcalls where there is any realistic hope of setting the contract by ducking: most require declarer to hold precisely AK ♣, to avoid a squeeze on you, altho I think there are some other layouts where declarer cannot cash his red winners in the correct order...

 

Therefore, at mps, I preserve my 25-35% of the board by taking my Ace rather than chase the relative moonbeam of a plus score....it's not that I think that a 30% board is good... but it is better than a 5% board.

 

And, of course, there is still a small chance that ducking allows declarer to make an otherwise unmakable contract, by driving out a red suit stopper in partner, and then making me go to bed with my A.... it is not easy to construct such a hand but I suspect it exists.

 

At imps, in a short match, the overtrick may be important: ever lost or won a match by an imp? I have.

 

But the odds now definitely suggest playing for the set if one can be seen as a significant possibility.

 

This is where the declarer hands containing AK tight in ♣ come in: because that holding negates the prospect of a black suit squeeze for either the 12 or (if you duck) the 13th trick.

 

I would rate the expectation of beating 6N at low.... but high enough to warrant the taking of the chance.

 

I would duck with both hands... and I am not sure that the odds change very much with the change of spot in the ♥ suit.

 

After all, the change of spot is irrelevant unless declarer has specifically 3 ♥s, and even then may not affect the hand at all... maybe declarer has the 9 or he has QJ10xx in ♦. More frequently, it will make no difference because declarer is a favourite to hold the ♥KQ!

[awm]

Normally declarer will have either four diamond tricks and a club or two diamonds and three clubs (if declarer lacks a club card he probably has ♦QJxx). So taking the spade ace will lead to making as long as declarer can play hearts for five tricks. Ducking the spade ace can set the contract in a number of positions: for example, suppose partner has ♦QTxxx(x) and two small clubs. Now declarer has five hearts, three clubs, a spade, and two diamonds -- but there's no real play for the 12th trick. Of course, there are many positions where declarer can take 13 tricks if we duck the spade ace (who said partner has to have anything?).

 

So my answers would be:

 

At MPs, take the ace. No reason 6NT= is necessarily a bad score on this board. Setting this contract seems unlikely.

 

At IMPs, duck the ace when dummy has ♥8. Declarer can probably play hearts for five tricks, but if I'm lucky partner has ♣K or ♦Q and declarer may simply not have enough tricks to make.

 

At IMPs when dummy has ♥7, things are less clear. If partner has some heart cards (say K98x) then taking the spade ace could actually set the contract when ducking would let it make. And there's also the one imp from the trick one decision. Nonetheless I think ducking is right.

[kenberg]

In a sense, the question skews the answers. Abstractly, declarer could hold KQ, KQx, Kxx or Kx of hearts. The 8-7 issue is most important when declarer holds Kxx so I suppose he has it.

 

Still, I am interested in what actually happened. I'm ducking at any form of scoring with either the 8 or the 7 in dummy. If it is wrong, I expect it will be because I get squeezed for 13 tricks in the black suits at the end. I'm willing to chance it, even at mps.

 

 

Btw, I would have passed with the spade club hand. Any tables in 6H down 3?

 

Show us the hands?

 

Added later:

 

 

Speculating on the 8-7 issue, I came to this. I think I am right about the trick total:

 

A: Declarer takes 13 tricks if you duck.

[hv=w=sq32hk32dqj32cak2&e=sk54haj854dak4ct9]266|100|[/hv]

 

 

B: Declarer takes 11 tricks if you duck.

 

[hv=w=sq32hk32dqj32cak2&e=sk54haj854dak4ct9]266|100|[/hv]

 

 

Oops. In hand B there are also only 11 tricks if you don't duck. But change the club spot to a diamond spot:

 

C: 11 if you duck, 12 if you rise:

 

[hv=w=sq32hk32dqj32cak2&e=sk54haj854dak4ct9]266|100|[/hv]

 

Challenge: Construct dummy with the 8 of hearts so that there are 12 tricks if you rise, 13 if you duck, and if you change only the 8 to a 7 there are 12 if you rise, 11 if you duck.

[joshs]

Sure declarer's actual hand was: Qxx Q9x Qx AKQxx

 

I ducked, Declater won, led the HQ partner not covering, and then took hise 5Hearts and 3 daimonds and squeezed me in the blacks for making 7. Not a tragity at IMPS, but at mps the over trick will matter some (probably turns a 30% board into a 10% board).

 

Note partner had 1480 shape!

 

At the other table, the contract was 4D-x, down 4 for 1100, which lost out to the slam.

[bid_em_up]

I ducked, Declater won, led the HQ partner not covering, and then took his  5 Hearts and 3 diamonds and squeezed me in the blacks for making 7. Not a tragedy at IMPS, but at mps the over trick will matter some (probably turns a 30% board into a 10% board).

My problem with this logic is that in either case (if you duck or you rise) 6N ends up making, so you only cost yourself 10-20% mp's by ducking at trick one, but if you rise, you almost assuredly allow 6N to make for what essentially the same bad board.

 

Overall, I still think the duck is correct.....as you will gain much more than 20% if doing so results in 6N -1.

[kenberg]

Sure declarer's actual hand was: Qxx Q9x Qx AKQxx

 

I ducked, Declater won, led the HQ partner not covering, and then took hise 5Hearts and 3 daimonds and squeezed me in the blacks for making 7. Not a tragity at IMPS, but at mps the over trick will matter some (probably turns a 30% board into a 10% board).

 

Note partner had 1480 shape!

 

At the other table, the contract was 4D-x, down 4 for 1100, which lost out to the slam.

Thanks. It seems the 8/7 doesn't matter here. Run the Q then the nine, or if the Q is covered come back with the nine for a proved finesse.

 

 

I certainly acknowledge that ducking at mps is a gamble at the least. I'd still probably do it. I have definitely done dumber things. Just ask my partners.

 

Ken

[joshs]

Yeah the 8 vs 7 only matters when Decalrer has Kx Kxx Qx Qxx where the x is smaller than 8. So if partner has Q98x or K98x he has a heart trick by force. Now unless partner also has a slow diamond trick AND the CQ or partner has the DQ, declarer has 11 top tricks (including the heart finesse) and can squeeze partner for a 12'th if you take the ace. I still think that taking the ace and partner getting squeezed because of it is more likely than ducking the ace and declarer has time for 11 tricks in the other suits/ or has a strip squeeze against partner, but it took me a long time to come to that conclusion...