balancing question

[flytoox]

White all, in 4th seat, you hold:

S: QXXX

H: QXX

D: AKX

C: AXX

 

West open 3H, two passes to you. What do you do now?

 

1. Pass. 2. Dbl. 3. 3N.

[whereagles]

There's a pretty good case for passing... but I'll try 3NT.

[Blofeld]

3NT is my first choice, followed by pass. I think it's pretty close between the two and if you catch me in a different mood I might say pass.

 

Double is a distant third.

[hrothgar]

I really dislike 3NT

 

This hand has 3 tricks on offense. Where are the other six coming from?

Sure, partner might have KQxxxx in clubs. Then again, its equally likely that RHO is sitting on the same. I don't even have a decent Heart stopper.

 

I'm not firmly convinced about the relative merits of pass and double (I lean towards pass), but 3N just doesn't appeal.

[whereagles]

Well, it is true that 3NT puts all eggs in the same basket. But it does offer the best chance of making a game. The alternative of doubling puts you in 4♠ when it's right but that's about it.

[kenrexford]

First, I ask how good the heart suit must be at the top.

 

Then, I grunt and look disturbed. I count on my fingers and mouth "one, two three..."

 

Then, I double, with a shaky voice.

 

I think that shows this hand.

[mikeh]

Tell us whether this is imps, mps or other.

 

If mps, pass seems clear. Pass has just got to be our best chance for a plus... it will be a small plus, but any plus wil get us a good score if bidding generates a minus. And bidding, whether that be double or 3N, seems likely to result in a minus.

 

Our hand is flat with very poor ♥ should partner be declarer... double almost guarantees that and may well result in a 4 level 4-3 fit.

 

If imps, then the upside of bidding is relatively much more attractive. If we make game as infrequently as 30% of the time, and do not ever go for a number, then bidding is going to be, on average, the better choice.

 

That caveat about not going for a number looms large on this hand: it would not be the least bit surprising to have RHO hold a decent hand short in ♥... now doubling exposes partner to a resounding penalty double.

 

So if I were to bid, it would be 3N... that rates to be the best game and also the contract that fails the least amount (altho when it fails a lot, it will really fail a lot :) )

 

But I pass at all forms of scoring. So why did I ask what the scoring was? Because I think pass is clear at mps and not-so-clear at imps.

[mike777]

Pass, I doubt partner has 11+ hcp and short hearts.

[barmar]

I'm very wary about balancing over 1st-seat preempts. RHO can pass with pretty good hands when he doesn't have trump support.

[Al_U_Card]

Did you use big "X"'s to make the hand look more impressive than it is? If you split the difference after subtracting your 15 and opener's 8, you still get pard's random 7 count.....on a good day. Will this make 3 S? With the expected bad break? This hand is so unpalatable that even it's defensive values are only barely acceptable. Sometimes preempts work (ie. hope to open this hand 1NT and be happy to make) and ya just gotta pass....so I do.

[Codo]

No points, no tricks, no stopper, no shape, no bid.

[pbleighton]

"No points, no tricks, no stopper, no shape, no bid."

 

Well said.

 

Peter

[Winstonm]

This looks like an automatic pass and a bad result because of it else it wouldn't have been posted. :P

 

Sometimes, you just get screwed and there's nothing sensible to do about it.

[HeartA]

I would bid 3NT as well.

[ewj]

I think I would pass actually

[neilkaz]

I pass expecting 3NT to be a bad bet and 4S, if we get there after dbl to be almost as bad.

[SoTired]

50/50 between dbl and pass. very close. really a poker decision. I know my partner does not have 12hcp and short hearts, because then would bid.

 

3N is a real crap shoot bid. My heart stopper is nebulous (my RHO has Kx or Ax whenever I bid 3N with Qxx. ALWAYS), I do not have a good source of tricks, and I am relying on partner having a better than average holding.

 

So if I do bid, it will be dbl. Let partner share some of the blame. If partner has ♥KT, I want partner declarer in 3N, not me. 3N for sure loses the spade suit, which may be our best contract. Dbl allows us to play a 3S or 4m part-score.