Play 4H.

[kgr]

[hv=d=s&v=b&n=s75ht83dj8caq8753&s=skj2hak962dkqt4cj]133|200|Scoring: IMP

1H-2H-4H[/hv]

Lead ♠3 for Ace of East. East continues ♦5 for Ace of West. West returns a ♦ for the K in your hand (♦3 by East).

You play ♥A (4 and 5 by opps); ♠K (4 and 9 by opps) and ruff ♠J in dummy (♠6 in West and ♠Q in East).

Now you play ♥T from dummy, the ♥7 from East...

Do you play ♥K or ♥9?

(opps advanced, suppose standard signals and play).

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The above was actual play, but while reviewing this I saw it doesn't matter. If East had ♥QJ75 then he should have inserted the ♥J to this last trick and he still makes 2 ♥'s.

So, Suppose that you did ruff with ♥T iso of with ♥8 and so now you play ♥8 from dummy and East plays the 7 (having lost 2 tricks):

-

8

-

AQ8753

*

-

K962

QT

J

[temp3600]

When the last trump is lead from dummy, East knows declarer's exact shape. He knows South only has one entry to dummy - not enough to execute any kind of coup around the trump suit - so with an initial trump holding of QJ75 he should have split his honors, securing two trump tricks.

 

So I'd go up with the king, playing for 3-2 trumps.

[kgr]

When the last trump is lead from dummy, East knows declarer's exact shape. He knows South only has one entry to dummy - not enough to execute any kind of coup around the trump suit - so with an initial trump holding of QJ75 he should have split his honors, securing two trump tricks.

 

So I'd go up with the king, playing for 3-2 trumps.

yes, you are right.

East started with QJ75, but didn't play an honour here.

I wondered if I should have made this, but it seems like there is no normal play to make 4H.

[kenberg]

When the last trump is lead from dummy, East knows declarer's exact shape. He knows South only has one entry to dummy - not enough to execute any kind of coup around the trump suit - so with an initial trump holding of QJ75 he should have split his honors, securing two trump tricks.

 

So I'd go up with the king, playing for 3-2 trumps.

yes, you are right.

East started with QJ75, but didn't play an honour here.

I wondered if I should have made this, but it seems like there is no normal play to make 4H.

It seemed certain this was the case, since no one asks a question where the answer is "Assume the suit splits 3-2". Running the 8 could well lead you to lament "I made the safety play for the 4-1 split but unfortunately they split 3-2 and I went down"

 

Given that diamonds are either 4-3 or 5-2 (as you know at the time) and hearts are either 3-2 or 4-1, as you also know at the time, the 5-2 diamond split is (by my calculations) significantly more likely than the 4-1 heart split.

 

The clues from the play are scanty. The D shift at T2 has some risk if defender holds three diamonds of allowing declarer to toss a spade if his spade holding in hand is lighter and his diamond holding stronger, but E may feel it necessary to start the diamonds from his side. Still, with three diamonds I would expect a spade continuation. Weak evidence, but all in all it seems that losing the 8 and then seeing another diamond from W, ruffed by E, is the greater danger.

 

So yep, I go up. In fact, anticipating this choice, I would have continued with the king of hearts at T4. If you are not going to run the 8 there seems little point in waiting.