Is it a guess? (Part 1)

[Walddk]

In the last round of the PABF Championships in Shanghai this deal came up (rotated for convenience):

 

[hv=d=n&v=e&n=sa754haq52dakckj7&s=shk9dqj8763c98532]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

After North had shown a strong balanced hand and South both minors, South became declarer in 6♦. Not a great spot but a little better than the 6♣ they were in at our other two live tables.

 

West led ♠K won in dummy (club pitch). Declarer then cashed ♦AK, both opponents following, and ruffed a spade. Next came a low club, 6 from West and .... ?

 

Provided that you can do the right ting at all, is it a pure guess or ..... ?

 

(to be continued after you have decided whether to insert the jack or king).

 

Roland

[whereagles]

Finesse jack:

- If it makes, low to the king next, or try for some variation of the vice squeeze.

- If loses to the A you might still make on a club/heart squeeze.

 

Finesse king:

- If it makes, you need some sort of squeeze without the count in clubs/hearts.

 

The jack seems simpler.

[Finch]

I assume we drew the 3rd round of trumps first? Otherwise we look a little silly when they take a club ruff.....

 

Even if we don't lose two club tricks at once we still have to find a 12th trick from somewhere. There are two sources for this:

 

i) The AQ of clubs are onside (or the Q10 if we fancy putting the 7 in instead)

ii) A squeeze

 

In our dreams, we play a club to the jack and ace, win the heart return (say) in hand, cash the CK, ruff the last spade and cash the final diamond squeezing someone in hearts and clubs. The great thing is that we have lost a club trick and hence rectified the count; playing a club to the king (winning) doesn't rectify the count.

 

There are some other squeezes possible but that's the one that doesn't need us to guess the layout and isn't broken up by a club back after the club loses.

 

However, it's not really worth thinking about these squeezes because a good East player will duck the ace of clubs. I'm sure there are still some squeeze possibilities once that has happened but they are going to be seriously difficult to play.

 

So for an easy life, I would put in the jack of clubs. As that is going to hold (unless it loses to singleton ace or the queen), I shall return to hand with a spade ruff and play another club. If the Queen goes in, I play the king and hope either the ace is onside or the ace is doubleton and I have a squeeze.

 

If the 10 goes in I shall look at the ceiling and decide if LHO has AQ10x or Q10x.

[jvage]

It should be possible to compare the different alternatives. All 3 can either work directly (by establishing clubs) or by enabling a ♣/♥-squeeze. For simplicity I assume RHO will always play low with the ace (except with A, AT or if he got the queen) and that LHO would always play the 6 if possible (even if having the 4, not considering probabilities, restricted choice theory or signalling tendencies). I also assume Frances does not find any clues written in the ceiling and end up playing the king in her latest scenario, since this keeps the squeeze chances if LHO got QTx.

 

1. Playing the 7:

Wins in 4 cases (LHO got AQT64, AQT6, QT64 and QT6), but no additional squeeze chances.

 

2. Playing the J:

Wins directly in 4 cases (AQT64, AQT6, AQ6 and AQ64). Additional squeeze possibilities in 3 cases (QT64, QT6, Q64).

 

3. Playing the K:

Wins directly in 1 case (AT64). If you plan to just play a small club next if the king wins and no Q falls (to rectify the count for a squeeze) a squeeze is possible in 3 cases (AT6, A64, A6).

 

This simplified analysis indicates that playing the J is best and that the 7 is better than the K. But playing on Vugraph one may consider that playing the king is the fanciest play :)

 

John

[pclayton]

The 7 wins (over the J) wins with QTx(x,x) on left. Not a strong favorite.

 

The King wins in some situations and can lead to some interesting winkle positions in the endgame if one opponents guards spades.

 

The J seems to be the most flexible. I immediately win with AQ on left (something that will be very embarrasing if I play the K) and I retain a lot of squeeze chances if it drives out the A.

[Walddk]

[hv=d=n&v=e&n=sa754haq52dakckj7&s=shk9dqj8763c98532]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

After North had shown a strong balanced hand and South both minors, South became declarer in 6♦. Not a great spot but a little better than the 6♣ they were in at our other two live tables.

 

West led ♠K won in dummy (club pitch). Declarer then cashed ♦AK, both opponents following, and ruffed a spade. Next came a low club, 6 from West and .... ?

Thanks for excellent analysis by all of you. I think we agree that objectively nothing is "right" or "wrong". So let's assume that you are "inspired" and ask for dummy's king.

 

It holds, East contributing the 4. Provided that West did not start with AQ6 or AQ106, how do you proceed? Does it make any difference if East had followed with the 10?

 

Roland

[Winstonm]

Ruling out some esoteric and remote squeeze chances, seems this is a variation of restricted choice - the play of the 6 tends to deny possession of the 4, as with both either card could be played at random without affecting the outcome. If RHO does hold the 4, then stiff Q and stiff Ace and stiff 10 are ruled out, leaving these relevant holding: 4, 104, A4, Q4, Q104.

 

The Jack wins in 3 cases - even assuming 11 outside tricks and the club play as the 12th, it appears that the play of the 6 by LHO makes the finesse of the Jack a 3/2 favorite (of the 5 relevant chances) as it eliminates (if restricted) some of the 4/1 and 5/0 breaks.

 

If LHO had played the 4, he could have had AQ104, Q1064, Q104 or Q64. It would seem to me that if LHO followed with the 4, a finesse of the 7 would be the best chance.

[keylime]

Curious: I wonder if a partial elimination helps this situation any.