Two of a kind, part I

[Finch]

Both from the Brighton teams.

[hv=d=s&n=skq1084ha98d7cq1086&s=s73hqj6da95cak975]133|200|Scoring: IMP

1NT (12-14) P 2♥ P

2♠ P 2NT P

3NT all pass[/hv]

 

3 of diamonds lead (4th highest) to the king, ducked.

4 of diamonds return (original fourth highest) ducked to the Jack, spade discard.

Queen of diamonds, spade discard, 6, Ace.

 

You play five rounds of clubs, LHO having started with 3.

On the second & third clubs, RHO discards the 6 and Jack of spades.

On the fourth club, LHO discards the 2 of spades and RHO the 2 of hearts.

On the fifth club, LHO discards the 3 of spades, dummy the S10 and RHO the 3 of hearts.

 

The Queen of hearts is a winner, everyone following low.

Now what?

 

(opponents play reverse attitude/standard count discards, but don't read too much in their discards once they know the diamonds are established).

[MickyB]

My line -

 

Give MI during the auction to avoid the diamond lead, make 10 tricks on a heart lead, then have it ruled back to 3NT making two-thirds of the time and going off the other one-third.

[kgr]

Seems like RHO has ♦T. He didn't deblock it, so I assume that RHO had 5-card ♦.

I play RHO has kept:

♠A

♥x

♦T2

♣-

I will only make this if RHO has ♥T, so I continue with ♥J

[mikeh]

The play in the ♦ suit tells me that the suit was QJ53 opposite K10642, and I am going to have to play RHO for AJ3 10xxx K10642 x

 

So I lead the ♥J

[starfruit]

If the opening lead is true, ♦s must be 5-4

Thus ♥K must be onside, otherwise RHO will take it and cash at least 1♦ and 1♠ for -1(he knows that you can't have enough HCPs to hold ♠A.

Therefore, there exists only 2 lines of play left :

1)♥J for a chinese finesse or if lucky, pinning the ♥T.

2)Play a♠ and hope for the best.

 

What about RHO's hand?

He's know to have exactly 1♣, at least 2♠, 4♦, 2♥s.

If he has exactly ♥Txxx(where it's correct to play for option 1), he must have started with 4=4=4=1.

Seems like this isn't quite possible from his 2 initial discards including the ♠J, so I'll play for option 2.

 

Looks like the final trick will either be coming from ♠ or the defense being force to help you finesse in ♥. (LHO having ♥K and RHO having ♥T)

 

P.S. 5♣ looks pretty cold btw

[Joe de Balliol]

Well, it looks like I have to pick either a stiff HK onside or a stiff HT offside. I go with the former. Heart to the ace.

[ArcLight]

I don't think the ♥J is a Chineese finesse.

It must be the case East has the 10.

 

If West had K T x in hearts, they would cover the Q, establishing the T as a 3rd round winner.

Thus East must have the 10. East has discarded 2 hearts and played low on the Q for the 3rd.

 

Run the ♥J, covering if West plays the K.

[Finch]

Joe has put the question nicely - after we've played one round of hearts, is the king now singleton on our left, or the 10 now singleton on our right?

 

The opponents have been slightly sneaky in concealing the two of diamonds, but as mikeh points out you can work out the diamond position anyway: the opening leader cannot have started with the 10 (would have led the queen), so RHO has it. If RHO has only 4 diamonds, RHO would have unblocked the 10 on the third round. Consistently, LHO has unblocked the other top diamond honour on the third round, so the original layout must have been QJxx on our left and K10xxx on our right.

 

The question is whether LHO started with

 

Axxx

Kx

QJxx

Jxx

 

(RHO being 2551) and the contract always had 9 tricks

 

or

 

xxx

Kxx

QJxx

Jxx

 

(RHO being 3451) and RHO has been triple squeezed

 

The second layout is slightly more likely, so MickyB's ruling doesn't seem that unreasonable (I haven't worked out the exact odds).

 

Anyway, the second layout is also the one at the table, so if you played the other heart honour next you pinned the H10 in RHO's hand and made it.