5 or 6?

[Finch]

Matchpoints, love all, LH opponent opens.

 

[hv=d=w&v=n&s=sxhadakj109xxxcak7]133|100|Scoring: MP

1♠ P 4♠ ?[/hv]

 

[Edited the vulnerability]

[luke warm]

i voted 6, but at matchpoints 5 might be better

[paulg]

I think 6♦ .. push them to the final guess and only let them have one chance. They seem likely to bid over 5♦ and will have a better idea what to do over 6♦ than I do over 5♠.

 

Paul

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

 

5D.

 

You need 2 cards to make 6D,

but most likely partner wont

have those cards.

And 5S is not making, ... in other words

I know what to do over 5S.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[adhoc3]

5 for me. But 66.7% voted for 6 so far. How many will bid 6D in a money tour? maybe 95%:rolleyes:)

[Walddk]

6♦. Let them make the final (wrong hopefully) guess, and if you are left to play there, as little as ♦xx (not 32!) and ♣J10 may be enough.

 

Roland

[whereagles]

6♦ seems fair. I got 11 tricks in most layouts and a fairly good shot at a 12th.

[mikeh]

6♦. Let them make the final (wrong hopefully) guess, and if you are left to play there, as little as ♦xx (not 32!) and ♣J10 may be enough.

 

Roland

ditto

[hatchett]

6♦

 

Even when it's not making some of the time the opponents are going to save in 6♠ which they presumably think will be cheap.

[pclayton]

Its funny how different cliches can apply. :P

 

I think I'll 'stay fixed' with 5♦. I don't see why the opponents will take the push to 6♠ at equal colors, especially after they've pushed us to an uncomfortable level. While I have boundless respect for the opinions of Roland and Mike, I think they are really hoping for the opponents to rescue them from 6♦ with a phantom.

 

Assuming we have a spade loser, we are playing pard for a very specific card to make 12 tricks.

 

I'll take the $, thank you.

[Walddk]

Assuming we have a spade loser, we are playing pard for a very specific card to make 12 tricks.

I also assume we have a spade loser, but I don't think it's extremely unreasonable if we find partner with something like

 

♠ xx

♥ Jxx

♦ xx

♣ Jxxxxx

 

Even with as little as that, 6♦ has play.

 

Roland

[Free]

If 6 works out ok, this probably wouldn't be asked... 5♦ :wacko:

[neilkaz]

Can I bid 5 1/2 D ?

 

OK since I can't, I'll just bid 6D on this freak hand and avoid the unpleasant decision of what to do over 5S if I bid 5D now.

[Finch]

A huge vote in favour of bidding 6♦. My partner held the hand, and bid 6♦. He said afterwards he couldn't decide (at matchpoints) whether to bid 5 or 6, but he'd never jumped to slam in this auction before, so this seemed a good opportunity.

 

The readers here are a lot more aggressive than the average English club player (OK, I might have guessed that). From the frequencies I deduce that about 560 pairs overcalled 5D and either played there or defended 5Sx, and about 440 pairs overcalled 6D and played there. There are quite a few more results that aren't clear.

 

The winning action is 5♦, as partner's hand is not entirely suitable:

 

x

109xxxx

x

Jxxxx

 

Even opposite that pile of dross 6D has play (which implies it is indeed the correct call), but you have to lose a spade and a diamond.

 

Brian Senior, who wrote the commentary, didn't even mention the possibility of overcalling 6. But then he definitely wrote the commentary in a bit of a hurry, as some glaring mis-analysis on other boards shows.

 

Full details are at http://www.simpairs.com/freq.asp?session=003996 (board 1)