3NT

[Finch]

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=sk10hak6542da4ca96&s=s864hj8dqj62cqj108]133|200|Scoring: IMP

1♦ x P 1NT

P 3♥ P 3NT

all pass[/hv]

 

EW play (more or less) standard american. West leads the Queen of spades. The King wins in dummy.

Plan the play.

[mikeh]

Two lines occur to me:

 

1. Cash a top ♥. If the Q appears, come to the J and tackle ♣. If the Q does not appear, play another top ♥ and, if the suit breaks, a third. If the suit doesn't break... well, if east has length, exit the ♠10 and hope that west has AQJ9 of ♠. If west has the length, cash the ♣A, playing west for 4=4=4=1 with stiff ♣K.

 

This line rates to fail if west wins the 3rd ♥, unless East had Qx.. because if west had Qxx, he is probably missing a minor king... altho AQJx Qxx Kxxxx K is possible... he is not 4=3=4=2 with 15 hcp.

 

This line also rates to fail if West had Qx ♥, since now the odds are against him having both kings, but he might not open 1N with AQJx Qx Kxxxx Kx.

 

2. Lead a ♥ to the Jack. This wins anytime east has the Q.. no matter how the ♥ suit breaks, west has to have the missing minor Kings. However, if west holds the Q, the defence can (almost always) arrange to cash the ♠ and lock you in dummy with a ♥.

 

 

So if west has the ♥Q, we are probably going down on line 2 and sometimes, but less often, by line 1.

 

If east has the Q, we are okay on line 2 but in real trouble on line 1 unless ♥ are 3-2.

 

I am going for line 1... top 2♥ and (if the suit breaks) a third. This seems to match or beat line 2 on all 3-2 ♥ breaks and wins on one of the 4-1 breaks as well.. the stiff Q. While the auction and the lead suggest that a good ♥ break is less than the a priori 68.5%, I feel the residual chances plus the chance of stiff Q exceed the probability of the ♥Q being 4 or 5 times on my right.

[sfbp]

You are gonna lose 3 spades unless West started with exactly AQJ :)

 

Forget dem heartzzzzzz.......

 

Play A and another diamond, to guarantee you a diam trick and entry to hand

 

Now finesse clubs when the smoke dies down. You make when west has Kx.

 

I bet this is the 4=4=3=2 1D opener.

[cherdano]

How about exiting with the spade T at trick two? The plan is to go back developing hearts after they cashed their spades, reverting back to Mike's line 1. The advantage comes when LHO has ♥Q and not ♣K, and the defense either cannot (♠AQJ9) or doesn't work out to play a heart through from the East side.

I.e. it gains genuinely when LHO has ♠AQJ9 ♥Q ♦K, and on a possible defense mistake when he has the same high cards and ♠AQJx.

 

Against the opponents I usually play, I think this defense mistake would be a pretty good additional chance.

 

Arend

[sfbp]

I knew i was no good at this.... if they take the diamond right away you can't get ingress to hand. OTOH West should now be endplayed in hearts and clubs, so it comes to the same thing?

[Finch]

I was just thinking about mike's comparison of lines...

Even if you catch singleton queen of hearts, you still aren't home.

Ace of hearts, heart to the jack, queen of clubs (winning)

Jack of clubs (winning)

Now what?

 

Now you need to decide if clubs are 3-3 (play a third round and set up hearts), or if the DK is right (run the DQ).

 

What's more, line 1 (3 round of hearts) needs West to have the S9 if East has 4 hearts.

 

Maybe you get the idea that I like a low heart towards the Jack....

 

Anyway, this wasn't from a match I played so I'm afraid the defence is better than we are used to. At the table declarer went for cherdano's line and played a spade at trick 2. EW cashed the spades finishing in the East hand (dummy discarding two hearts and declarer a diamond) and East now switched to the 10 of hearts (!).

 

What are you doing now?

[Finch]

Well, everyone has lost interest so I'll tell you the full hand.

 

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=sk10hakxxxxdaxca9x&w=saqjxhqd109xxckxxx&e=s9xxxh109xxdkxxcxx&s=sxxxhjxdqjxxcqj108]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

This is from the Spingold Semi: EW were Katz/Jacobs and declarer Meckstroth.

 

If you take my preferred line (low heart towards the Jack) you go off.

 

If you take mikeh's preferred line (Ace of hearts first) I think you will go off: ace of hearts, heart to the jack, Q & J of clubs winning.... and now what? How do you not lose 3 spades, a heart and either a club or a diamond?

 

If you take Meckstroth's line you have a chance to make: exit in spades, they cash them and then East switched to the H10. If you duck this you can actually make it: ace of hearts, heart to the jack, 2 rounds of clubs ending in dummy, set up the long heart... and East is endplayed into giving you a diamond trick (2 clubs, 2 diamonds, 4 hearts, 1 spade). At the table he played the HJ on the H10 and went off.

[winkle]

If you take mikeh's preferred line (Ace of hearts first) I think you will go off: ace of hearts, heart to the jack, Q & J of clubs winning.... and now what? How do you not lose 3 spades, a heart and either a club or a diamond?

Instead of the CJ on the second round of clubs, play a low club to the 9, then set up hearts.

[Finch]

Yes, that works better.

I'm sure that's what mike meant by 'work on clubs' as well, it didn't occur to me at the time.

[pclayton]

I didn't see this on VG. (Similar to Mike's "A") - Whats wrong with K♠, A-K♥, ♥? Assuming ♠'s are 4-4, they have to give you the entry to hand to take whatever minor hooks plus the hearts.

 

Obviously you can switch gears when the ♥Q drops.

 

I think this line is superior to a ♥ toward the J or an immediate exit of a spade.

[Finch]

I didn't see this on VG. (Similar to Mike's "A") - Whats wrong with K♠, A-K♥, ♥? Assuming ♠'s are 4-4, they have to give you the entry to hand to take whatever minor hooks plus the hearts.

 

Obviously you can switch gears when the ♥Q drops.

 

I think this line is superior to a ♥ toward the J or an immediate exit of a spade.

What's wrong with it is that it needs _both_ minor suit kings onside, as well as hearts 3-2.

 

A heart towards the Jack needs only the HQ onside (singleton HQ onside may lead you to go off, admittedly).

 

A, K and another may be superior, but it certainly isn't so by a large margin.

 

In fact, it's hard to see how an immediate exit of spades can be worse than A, K and a heart, and I suppose has to be better because they may do something helpful having cashed them (as indeed happened at the table). I didn't think of the play-another-spade line until Meckstroth did it, but I'm becoming more attracted to it as time goes by.

[pclayton]

I didn't see this on VG. (Similar to Mike's "A") - Whats wrong with K♠, A-K♥, ♥? Assuming ♠'s are 4-4, they have to give you the entry to hand to take whatever minor hooks plus the hearts.

 

Obviously you can switch gears when the ♥Q drops.

 

I think this line is superior to a ♥ toward the J or an immediate exit of a spade.

What's wrong with it is that it needs _both_ minor suit kings onside, as well as hearts 3-2.

 

A heart towards the Jack needs only the HQ onside (singleton HQ onside may lead you to go off, admittedly).

 

A, K and another may be superior, but it certainly isn't so by a large margin.

 

In fact, it's hard to see how an immediate exit of spades can be worse than A, K and a heart, and I suppose has to be better because they may do something helpful having cashed them (as indeed happened at the table). I didn't think of the play-another-spade line until Meckstroth did it, but I'm becoming more attracted to it as time goes by.

Fair enough, but after a low heart toward hand you still have to guess which minor K LHO holds, even if you catch RHO with the Q.

 

At face value, if Meckstroth exits spade at T2, it deserves serious consideration.

[sfbp]

What I didn't even notice about my line (♦A, small ♦) is that if the ♦K happens to be with East then what is he going to do? They can cash their 3 spades. It doesn't matter who is on lead because now you have 3 clubs, 3 diamonds, 2 hearts and one spade. Fourth club not needed. You have to make sure you cash the ♦J at the right moment, but you are in the Spingold, n'est-ce pas?

 

So I would have lucked out, probably for the wrong reasons. I don't even mind when East leads the 10 of hearts. As I said before, who cares about the hearts?

 

Where I fail is if West has every single face card except the ♥Q and 3 or more clubs.

 

Exposing the ♦K seems to be a good idea. Exposing the ♣K won't help because the diamonds are still blocked.

 

(added after the first coffee of the day)

 

Oh, never mind - East leads a heart and I still have to guess to duck it in order to get back to hand.

[Finch]

Does this really work?

After ace and another diamond, which East wins, they cash the spades ending in East, and play a heart (West is pretty much markd with the Queen now). You are stuck on dummy.

[sfbp]

East won't lead one if he has 2 or 3, right?

[pclayton]

I've thought about this a lot this morning and its one of those rabbit-hole type hands. A few observations:

 

LHO has AQJx of spades and very well may have AQJ9.

 

LHO (probably) needs two of the 3 for his opening bid: ♥Q, ♦K and ♣K. Furthermore, if LHO has all three of these cards, there is a chance he is balanced and has a routine 1N opener. So there's a good chance RHO holds one of these cards. My line of ♥AK, ♥ needs LHO to hold both minor kings, because the defense is routine to cash the spades and LHO to lead the minor K he doesn't have.

 

Therefore, a low heart toward the Jack is developing a lot of appeal for me. I will make on 4-1 splits with Qxxx on my right, since I can make 3 hearts, a spade and easily develop 3 clubs and 2 diamonds by finessing through West. If the heart loses to west, we can't make, however, we still have an outside chance if and only if West started with the stiff ♥Q, since he can't lock us on the board and will be forced to win all of the spades if holding AQJ9, assuming LHO also has both K's.

 

Lets look at Meckstroth's line: What is the defense to do after winning the 3 spade tricks? Logically, LHO will shift to the minor K that he does not have. Then what do I do? Hearts aren't established and the defense has the tempo. If LHO has both minor kings (and RHO holds the ♥Q), a ♥ shift doesn't sink the contract, but it doesn't have any material gain over the other lines either. But I suppose it gives the defense a chance to err.