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With the odds or psychological?


Line a or b  

15 members have voted

  1. 1. Line a or b

    • Run J[CL] at trick 2
      9
    • Unblock hearts. Cross to [CL] K, cash Hearts and run [CL] T
      2
    • Cross to [CL] K and run T
      4


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As it's hardly impossible that clubs are 4-1, I shall play a club to the king and a low club back to the 9.

i) If everyone follows and the 9 holds I have 9 tricks and can guess whether to run winners or play a diamond at once for the best chance for 10.

ii) If LHO blows I also have 9 tricks (5 clubs, 3 hearts, 1 diamond)

iii) If LHO wins and they don't cash out I will be OK as long as they don't play a third club back at once. And I really don't think anyone will find this in practice, so I don't think it's a risk.

 

Second choice is an immediate club to the 10.

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As it's hardly impossible that clubs are 4-1, I shall play a club to the king and a low club back to the 9.

 

 

iii) If LHO wins and they don't cash out I will be OK as long as they don't play a third club back at once. And I really don't think anyone will find this in practice, so I don't think it's a risk.

 

A heart back would also leave you blocked up.

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The problem with the immediate play through LHO (I would never run the J... I'd play low to the 10... unless my LHO was so weak that I thought I could work out where the Q was by leading the Jack) is that it is mildly anti-percentage in the suit and it relies, if it loses, on rho being robotic.

 

LHO may be able to give a readable smith/reverse smith echo, but most don't play that and it might not be readable anyway. But, regardless, using the rule of 11 (assuming a 4th best lead) allows rho to know that playing on is probably futile.. and probably not neccessary right away.

 

LHO, if he wins an early return, may go wrong, hoping that RHO controls the suit, but RHO knows, at trick 2, that any finesse is working. So RHO (who probably already knows that we are likely 2=2=4=5... well, he would against me, since I open 1 with 4=4 in the minors... what do you know? I've finally found a hand on which opening 1 with 4=4 might gain an edge :) ) can and should think about switching to .

 

Ok, maybe I am giving the opps too much credit.

 

I'd play a to the 10 against 90% of the opponents against whom I play. I'd play a to the K and run the 10 against top defenders. I think that this line is the highest percentage line against really strong defence by a small margin, but the psychological line is the best against most defenders, by margins inversely proportional to the skill of the defenders.

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I will led a spade too. The clubs don´t run away, but maybe I don´t need them or get more informations before I have to attack them.

If nothing special happens, I will unblock in Heart play to the King of Club, cash Hearts and finesse in Club.

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:) I'm off four top tricks, so I can be down one right away if I misguess clubs. I lead the Q to get up to eight tricks - 2, 4 and 2. I am risking the chance that spades are Kxx opposite AQ9x, AND they find the right defense. But, remember, nobody overcalled spades. Assuming I survive this threat (or LHO ducks the Q), my idea is to get max info before guessing the Q. Who knows, maybe I will find a squeeze/end play?
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Well ..quite a pickle we have here..:)

 

Would win with the K and finesse the 10...chances are honors are split...and may get return...

 

 

 

All or nothing :)

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