Mosene Posted July 14, 2006 Report Share Posted July 14, 2006 [hv=d=e&v=n&s=sq75hq42dk6ca10874]133|100|Scoring: MP[/hv] The bidding went, 1S, P, 2clubs, p,2H, p, 2s, p3h p, 4s, all pass What do you lead? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArcLight Posted July 14, 2006 Report Share Posted July 14, 2006 The 2 Club bid should show at least 10 HCP, and probably more. If playing 2/1 then certainly more. Pard probably doesn't have much, say 2-6, perhaps in Diamonds, but not in Clubs (we have the Ace and Dummy thought enough of teh Clubs to show them) Dummy should have 3 Spades, maybe 4. Probably 5 Clubs, maybe 4. That means declarer and pard are short in Clubs. Declarer is probably 5=5=2=1 (we and dummy have almost all the Clubs) Will Dummy be ruffing hearts? We have 3, Declarer 5, and maybe the other 5 are 2-3. Dummy could be something like 3=2=3=5 We should get our Dime K, Spade Q, Club Ace. What about the Heart Q? will it be ruffed out?If Dummy has 2 hearts then one ruff establishes them. I see no way to prevent that. Leading a trump gives away a trick and declarer will then establish hearts. If Dummy has 3 hearts, the declarer may have 4 losers Every lead is horrible.Leading a club established dummies Clubs. I do NOT cash my Club Ace.Leading a heart may give away a trick, and help establish them.Leading a Spade probably costs a trick and doesn't stop the heart establishment. I think it unlikely pard has the Dime Ace, so the play Club Ace, Dime K, Dime to Ace, and Dime ruff/trump promotion is unlikely, but we may have to reconsider that. BUT thats the only choice I see. 1. Lay down the Club Ace2. Play the Dime K3. Lead a dime to pards ACE4. Overruff the Dime return, or discard and win the Spade Q. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted July 17, 2006 Report Share Posted July 17, 2006 ♦K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted July 17, 2006 Report Share Posted July 17, 2006 ♦K me too... i don't like a club lead, it seems bad to set up dummy's KQJxx before we get our 4 tricks ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArcLight Posted July 17, 2006 Report Share Posted July 17, 2006 Play the Club Ace so pard doesn't return Clubs and so declarer can discard a loser on a loser. If you don't take teh CLub Ace NOW you might never get it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted July 17, 2006 Report Share Posted July 17, 2006 ♠x Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted July 17, 2006 Report Share Posted July 17, 2006 I agree with the sentiment that every lead looks horrible. I'd prefer to be defending at imps, at which form of scoring the ♦K looks clear: it is unlikely to cost the setting trick and rates to be the most succesful attack. In fact, this lead looks like the best even at matchpoints. Of course, if I choose that lead (and I do) I will probably catch dummy with AQJ Qxxx in the minors, and declarer with x Jx <_< Oh well. The ♦ lead can win in more ways than it loses, since even when it is 'wrong', it may turn out to be irrelevant: dummy's ♣ may be establishable to discard the ♦ loser I eliminated on the lead, as one obvious example. As it is, I retain control of ♣, probably retain my trump trick, may establish partner's ♦Q, and might even hit partner's ♦A. If so (that is, if the ♦K wins) I will have to decide whether to cash the ♣A... that will depend upon what I see in dummy... before continuing the ♦ attack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mosene Posted July 17, 2006 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2006 I led the K diamonds. Dummy had Q10, and declarer had AJX. Wanted to see if it was a reasonable shot (even at MP's). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willow23 Posted July 17, 2006 Report Share Posted July 17, 2006 Though call ..as every lead seem to help opps... I am sceptical about the A♣ since one opp is showing a 6♥/5♥ hand and may very well be void in ♣ as his p may have a suit..I do not like leading K from Kx ..unless bidding from p ..hints he may have A♦..and I get a ruff by K♦ then small to the A♦... Under the circumstances, although everything points towards the K♦ lead..I would lead the 2♥.. The suits my p may have honor points in are the ♥ and ♦... It would hurt me to loose my K♦...besides they should break somewhat evenly..so i would hope to make later... Here goes nothing 2♥..played...:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilkaz Posted July 17, 2006 Report Share Posted July 17, 2006 K of D seems to have the most going for it to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted July 17, 2006 Report Share Posted July 17, 2006 K of D seems to have the most going for it to me.Although I prefer to play a forcing game against two suiters, here that seems unlikely to work so the best chance it would seem would be to score 2 hearts, a diamond, and a spade. I lead a spade and hope the hand is: [hv=n=sj54ha2dq65ckj852&w=sq32hq43dk7ca10643&e=sk6hk105d98432cq97&s=sa10987hj9876daj10c]399|300|[/hv] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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