Best play?

[adhoc3]

[hv=n=saxhaxdqtcaq9xxxx&s=sj9xxhkqt9xdaxxcx]133|200|South dealt 3NT.

Lead Sx, took by Q, a small S forced A. Now, where's the best line?[/hv]

 

Edit: The bidding is quite inrrelevent. Opps keep silent.:blink:

[zimzam]

If spadelead is most likely 5-card (you dont tell anything about that) I would play Ace of club and small club. if spadelead is more likely 4-card I play for Hearts running and see what happens. There can be several different ways to play after the hearts depending on defenders discarding.

:P

[whereagles]

Even if hearts run, I'd still have to I take the club finesse or make up some endplay, so I might as well start by finessing the club :)

[lowerline]

[hv=n=saxhaxdqtcaq9xxxx&s=sj9xxhkqt9xdaxxcx]133|200|South dealt 3NT.

Lead Sx, took by Q, a small S forced A. Now, where's the best line?[/hv]

 

Edit: The bidding is quite inrrelevent. Opps keep silent.;)

I immediately duck a club. You will win if the king is doubleton. I think this is better chance than dropping the jack of hearts and finessing the king of clubs.

[jikl]

I would like to know west's 2nd ♠

 

Sean

[SoTired]

the trouble with trying the hearts, even if they win, you only have 8 tricks and need a extra club or diam trick. Plus you have some bad entry problems. Club finesse is higher percentage than CKx.

So small heart to K, take club finesse. If it wins, AC and small club. Opps cannot cash more than 2 more spades.

[kenberg]

It appears to me that it is difficult to find nine tricks unless you can get at least two tricks from the club suit. Further, if clubs behave nicely then all your problems are solved as long as you preseve an entry.

 

Leave the ace of hearts on the board. Lead a small heart to your hand and finesse the club queen. If it loses you are not dead, but definitely on life support. If it wins, cash the ace of clubs. If they split, I imagine we can see what comes next. If they do not split then abandon clubs, cash the ace of hearts, come to hand with a diamond and hope you can run hearts for 1+5+1+2=9 tricks. This line wins if the king of clubs is onside and, additionally, either the clubs are 3-2, the hearts are 3-3, or the jack of hearts falls doubleton. With these three possibilities, it seems that the odds are only slightly worse than the 50-50 chance for the onside king of clubs.

 

The reason you are not quite dead if the club finesse loses is this: Possibly rho started with three clubs and two spades, at most 3 hearts, along with the diamond king but not the diamond jack. Say he returns a heart after taking the club king, killing the heart entry to the clubs. Cast the ace of clubs and lead a third club, throwing spades. They have now won a spade and two clubs but they cannot get to the remaining spades, while you can get to the clubs. If a diamond is returned, let it ride to the Q. If a heart is returned, lead a small diamond towards the board and insert the ten (or cover the jack if lho plays it). When this is taken by rho, you are home given the distributional assumptions. I would not call this last very likely, but it does provide a breath of hope if the club finesse loses.

 

 

All in all, this line must be something like 50%. I see nothing better.

[adhoc3]

[hv=d=n&v=b&n=sa4ha6dqtcaq86532&w=skt82hj74d976ckt7&e=sq75h832dkj532cj4&s=sj963hkqt95da84c9]399|300|Scoring: IMP

1C---1H

3C---3NT//

 

Openleading S2 4 Q 3, S7 6 8 A[/hv]

 

I was too lazy giving all details, sry.

 

There're 3 options:

 

1) ♣ finesse: 50%, drop ♥J is a must.

2) ♦ finesse:50%, drop ♥J is a must.

3) Play for ♣Kx: < 50%, no need drop ♥J.

 

I played for 3) with no clear calculation. Wish many genius here can give comparison.

 

I'm now thinking could there be a better way to combine these options？

 

Run ♥AKQ if J dropped, play the rest ♥ to see what opps duck.

 

[hv=d=n&v=b&n=sa4ha6dqtcaq86532&w=skt82hj74d976ckt7&e=sq75h832dkj532cj4&s=sj963hkqt95da84c9]399|300|Scoring: IMP

1C---1H

3C---3NT//

 

Openleading S2 4 Q 3, S7 6 8 A[/hv]

 

Then play a small ♦ toward QT, if East has ♣K, the contract fails.

 

If HJ not dropped.... that's another story.

[kenberg]

Playing as I did works here. Leave ace of hearts on board, come to hand with the king of hearts. Hook the club. It works. Cash ace of clubs. When rho follows, then unless he is playing a very deep game, the clubs are splitting. Throw a diamond under the ace of clubs and lead another club. You get six clubs, three side aces, and the opponents cannot take five tricks first, whoever wins the club (if rho wins the club and has a spade to lead through your holding then either your Q will win or the suit is 4-3). The heart Jack is irrelevant once rho follows to the second club. As the cards lie, you take ten tricks (two hearts six clubs, a diamond and a spade, and lho cannot cash more than one spade when in with the club).

 

So in short, I am saying that if the club finesse works, there will be no need to drop the jack of hearts (contrary to your assertion in option 1) unless clubs are 4-1. If the club finesse works and rho shows out on the ace of clubs, then you do need to bring in the hearts, but you have the entries to do so if the heart suit behaves.

 

This is as much of a combined chance as I could get, but it works as the cards lie, works with the clubs lying as they are regardless of the heart lie, and works with the king of clubs where it is even if the clubs are 4-1 providing the hearts split 3-3 or the Jack is doubleton. And as noted earlier there is an outside chance of bringing it in if the club finesse fails.

 

Ken

[willow23]

With the overtake of q♠ and small back ..I do not expect another ♠..so ...when I get in, play out hearts and take ♣ finesse..let opp finesse the ♦ or ♣ suits for me..:)..

 

Fingers crossed...