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Bidding problem


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Pass. I'm guessing this worked badly or this wouldn't be a problem?
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I pass. Who knows who can make anything? Opposite a typical white v red 3 of xx x KQJxxxx xxx, 5 will be expensive even if trump are 3-2 and 4 is cold, while on other hands, 4 may be failing: xx Qxx AJxxxxx x... he leads his stiff .

 

Bidding 5 requires the parlay that 5 goes for no more than 500 and that 4 makes. Passing wins whenever 5 is too rich or when 4 fails.

 

While, individually, I estimate that 4 will make more often than not and that 5 will fail by 300 or 500 more often than by 800, I don't like the parlay odds.

 

Note that I am not factoring in a playable 5. Assume 4N is takeout: will we really pass 5 doubled, when we could be in a 5-2 fit rather than a 7-1 or 7-2? Count me out of that gamble.

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I don't have a problem with anyone saying that the hand xx x KQJxxxx xxx is a 4 preempt: I might do that myself.. the point was that even that good a playing hand (for a preempt) offers no help in 5... make it xx x KJxxxxx xxx and (I assume) you'd prefer 3 and you get my point.

 

BTW, for what it is worth, I am not generally a 4m bidder. 5m yes, 3m, yes, but 4 minor forces them to bid game all too often: either when they might have played 3M or in circumstances in which our partner has to make the last guess. Having said that, I well recognize the advantages of removing the forcing change of suit by responder and the cue bid, and, as the entries in my internal database change over time, I may become a readier 4m bidder than I am now.

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