Best play for 3 tricks (NT)

[Trumpace]

[hv=n=shj32dc&s=shat98dc]133|200|[/hv]

 

You need 3 tricks from the hearts and you have only outside 2 entries to dummy.

 

You use one entry to dummy to play a heart to the Ten and you win the trick.

 

What is the best play now?

 

Was a heart to Ten the right play in the first place?

[Trumpace]

Sorry meant to put in the Beginner/Intermediate forum. Can this be moved there please?

[1eyedjack]

I would have run the J rather than small to T, so that if it wins you are in the right hand to lead the next card in the suit without wasting entries. It sounds like you have enough entries anyway, but without the whole hand cannot be sure that using the entry up needlessly costs nothing

 

Then when J wins, repeat the finesse. If second finesse loses cross back to take the finesse again against the remaining honour.

 

The play is essentially the same if you start with low to T (winning): use entry to table to lead J next, run it (or cover RHO). If J loses to LHO use final entry to repeat finesse.

 

All this does assume that there is nothing from the bidding or play to affect the a priori odds of particular opponent having a concentration of values, whether in this suit or generally, and there is no danger hand etc.

[erki_]

Low to ten is correct. If hearts are 3-3, it doesn't matter whether to lead J or 2, but more likely they are 4-2. If West has Kx and East Qxxx and you lead J, it will lose to K and you have only one entry to repeat the finesse and eventually you'll lose trick to Q too.

If both opponents play low now, you are forced to guess the position. If you are playing vs. beginners, it's probably best to go to dummy and repeat the finesse, if against experts, cashing A might be correct play.

[SoTired]

Play low to 10 first is correct. If 10 wins, lead low to J on second round in case West ducked with Kx. Always play J on 2nd round to unblock.

[1eyedjack]

My bad.

 

Agree with low to T

 

SoTired - after you play low to J on second round and it loses to RHO honour (after LHO plays low because he started with either xx or Hxx(x) instead of the hoped for Hx), presumably you now play for the drop. So you end up losing when RHO started with KQxx (when, ironically, running the J on first round gains). If instead you take a finesse on the third round you lose when they broke Hxx opposite Hxx and also when LHO started with Hxxx and RHO with Hx (when again running the J on first round ironically gains). But then, if you are going to play for the drop on the third round you might as well cash the Ace on the second round instead. That loses to KQxx in RHO (but then so does duck, duck, drop). But it wins when they break 3-3 or Hx falls in either hand.

 

It seems right, if T wins, to cross back and lead J.

You lose if LHO started with Hx but make when LHO started with Hxx or xx. A lot of defenders would find it hard to duck with Hx to start. Perhaps not so hard with Hxx

[P_Marlowe]

<skipped>

[jdonn]

Just food for thought.

 

How do people continue if low to the ten holds? Go back to dummy to run the jack with your last entry? But maybe a sneaky west ducked Kx...

 

So continue a low one from hand back to the jack instead? Ok, east wins the Q and maybe west ducked twice with Kxx...

 

I am just saying that without one more entry to dummy there is no sure way to continue. Obviously with three entries you could finesse three times.

[SoTired]

you are right, jdonn. low to J loses to clever west who ducks twice with Hxx. leading J loses to clever west that ducked once with Hx. It is pure guess (from isolated info presented) from what holding West has ducked.

 

And either method works when East has both honors.

[1eyedjack]

you are right, jdonn. low to J loses to clever west who ducks twice with Hxx.

It is even worse that that. If you refer to my earlier post it also loses to a west who ducks twice with Hxxx.

 

It is pure guess (from isolated info presented) from what holding West has ducked.

 

It is certainly a guess, but if by "pure" guess you imply that one guess is as good as another then I would disagree. The number of hand combinations that make up West holding the various possibilites vary with the possibility being considered, so the correct play (which may or may not be the winning play on an individual occasion) is to "guess" that West has the more frequent combination. The likelihood of West holding xx, Hx, Hxx, Hxxx are not identical, even if you do not take into account the likelihood of his initially ducking with Hx(x..)

 

And either method works when East has both honors.

And yet (as mentioned earlier) the one method that FAILS when East has HHxx is to cash the Ace on the second round (after the ten has held), although that line is superior to leading low to Jack as it picks up Hx opposite Hxxx either way round, which is more frequent. (Not that I am recommending cashing the Ace, my line is to cross to repeat the finesse, I am just saying that it is better than leading away from the Ace on second round).

 

Basically, there is no line that covers all bases. My line loses to Hx with West.

 

If West has Hx he can always beat me provided that I am committed to a repeated finesse. If I start by running the J he beats me by winning the first round. If I start by low to the T he beats me by ducking. So I lose against Hx with LHO. But I make on all other occasions where it is makeable, and I reckon that that is as good odds as I am going to get.

 

That being the case, there is not a whole heap of theoretical difference whether I start by running the J or start by low to the T. On balance I go with low to the T on the grounds that LHO is more likely to misdefend by winning with Hx after low to the T than he is to misdefend by ducking with Hx after first round running the J, so I give myself a slight unquantifiable edge by low to the T.

[jdonn]

Without deeply analyzing your post, I notice a couple things:

 

- Hx with LHO is more likely than xx by odds of 8 to 6, so it seems like the wrong thing to play to lose to. Pretend you are missing KQ5432.

 

K5 K4 K3 K2 Q5 Q4 Q3 Q2

54 53 52 43 42 32

 

- Leading the jack first also loses to singleton K or Q on the left.

[kfgauss]

Without deeply analyzing your post, I notice a couple things:

 

- Hx with LHO is more likely than xx by odds of 8 to 6, so it seems like the wrong thing to play to lose to. Pretend you are missing KQ5432.

 

K5 K4 K3 K2 Q5 Q4 Q3 Q2

54 53 52 43 42 32

 

- Leading the jack first also loses to singleton K or Q on the left.

You're forgetting about x-KQxxx.

[1eyedjack]

Without deeply analyzing your post, I notice a couple things:

 

- Hx with LHO is more likely than xx by odds of 8 to 6, so it seems like the wrong thing to play to lose to. Pretend you are missing KQ5432.

 

K5 K4 K3 K2 Q5 Q4 Q3 Q2

54 53 52 43 42 32

 

- Leading the jack first also loses to singleton K or Q on the left.

Perhaps you could clarify the alternative line that you think is superior, in order to check against the various other holdings that might gain or lose.

 

My prefered line (low to T, cross back and run J) ONLY loses against Hx with LHO (who ducks the T). But it does not ONLY gain against xx with LHO, so comparing the frequencies of those holdings in isolation is inconclusive.

 

You refer to LHO having singleton H. Although much less frequent than the other combinations, this only seves to strengthen the argument for low to T on first round, followed by crossing and running the J on the second round.

 

LHO holding singleton small is an irrelevancy, as either low to T first or running the J first both succeed.

[kfgauss]

Without deeply analyzing your post, I notice a couple things:

 

- Hx with LHO is more likely than xx by odds of 8 to 6, so it seems like the wrong thing to play to lose to. Pretend you are missing KQ5432.

 

K5 K4 K3 K2 Q5 Q4 Q3 Q2

54 53 52 43 42 32

 

- Leading the jack first also loses to singleton K or Q on the left.

Perhaps you could clarify the alternative line that you think is superior, in order to check against the various other holdings that might gain or lose.

 

My prefered line (low to T, cross back and run J) ONLY loses against Hx with LHO (who ducks the T). But it does not ONLY gain against xx with LHO, so comparing the frequencies of those holdings in isolation is inconclusive.

 

You refer to LHO having singleton H. Although much less frequent than the other combinations, this only seves to strengthen the argument for low to T on first round, followed by crossing and running the J on the second round.

 

LHO holding singleton small is an irrelevancy, as either low to T first or running the J first both succeed.

My comment was meant to support your line, which I agree is the correct one (i.e. low to 10, then back & finesse again). The variant line of cashing the Ace after leading low to the 10 (presumably what Josh was suggesting) only does better on Hx-Hxxx holdings and only does worse on xx-KQxx and x-KQxxx holdings.

 

Andy

[jdonn]

Without deeply analyzing your post, I notice a couple things:

 

- Hx with LHO is more likely than xx by odds of 8 to 6, so it seems like the wrong thing to play to lose to. Pretend you are missing KQ5432.

 

K5 K4 K3 K2 Q5 Q4 Q3 Q2

54 53 52 43 42 32

 

- Leading the jack first also loses to singleton K or Q on the left.

Perhaps you could clarify the alternative line that you think is superior, in order to check against the various other holdings that might gain or lose.

 

My prefered line (low to T, cross back and run J) ONLY loses against Hx with LHO (who ducks the T). But it does not ONLY gain against xx with LHO, so comparing the frequencies of those holdings in isolation is inconclusive.

 

You refer to LHO having singleton H. Although much less frequent than the other combinations, this only seves to strengthen the argument for low to T on first round, followed by crossing and running the J on the second round.

 

LHO holding singleton small is an irrelevancy, as either low to T first or running the J first both succeed.

My comment was meant to support your line, which I agree is the correct one (i.e. low to 10, then back & finesse again). The variant line of cashing the Ace after leading low to the 10 (presumably what Josh was suggesting) only does better on Hx-Hxxx holdings and only does worse on xx-KQxx and x-KQxxx holdings.

 

Andy

I wasn't recommending anything, merely pointing out that there is no sure answer. You can cater to ALL those holdings by leading low from hand if low to the ten holds. I am just pointing out that you will still lose to something in that case, which is LHO ducking Hxx (and again on the way back up).

 

My real point is just that there is no sure answer. This is the kind of problem that is influenced by even slight knowledge of the shape and strength of each opponent's hand.

[kfgauss]

I wasn't recommending anything, merely pointing out that there is no sure answer. You can cater to ALL those holdings by leading low from hand if low to the ten holds. I am just pointing out that you will still lose to something in that case, which is LHO ducking Hxx (and again on the way back up).

 

Not only does this lose to Hxx-Hxx when they're aware enough to duck (and hey, we're already assuming they're aware enough to duck from Hx-Hxxx), it also loses to Hxxx-Hx, which none of the other lines lose to either (which they also have to duck from, but this one's easier). This makes it substantially worse.

 

My real point is just that there is no sure answer. This is the kind of problem that is influenced by even slight knowledge of the shape and strength of each opponent's hand.

 

Sure, but absent much info, low to 10, then back & finesse is superior in number of cases and in addition, in the cases it loses, the opps have to find a duck from Hx.

 

Andy

[foo]

??? WITW?

 

The best way to play Jxx:AT98 for 3 tricks, especially if you have limited entries to the short hand is to play the J, intending to run it if not covered and win the A if the J is covered.

 

You will win 3 tricks on all layouts except where both missing honors are off-side (in this case, LHO).

When both missing honors are off-side you will take 2 tricks.

 

Odds are ~3/4 that you will get 3 tricks.

 

...or was there a joke being played on someone by posting bad advice that I'm missing?

[jdonn]

??? WITW?

 

The best way to play Jxx:AT98 for 3 tricks, especially if you have limited entries to the short hand is to play the J, intending to run it if not covered and win the A if the J is covered.

 

You will win 3 tricks on all holding except where both missing honors are off-side.

When both missing honors are off-side you will take 2 tricks.

 

Odds are ~3/4 that you will get 3 tricks.

 

...or was there a joke being played on someone by posting bad advice that I'm missing?

You are missing the point of the discussion.

 

Say you are in the dummy now, with just one more later entry. Running the jack on the first round loses to Kx or Qx on your left, since you can only repeat the finesse one more time. Leading low to the ten in your hand on the first round guards against that, since you can run the jack later and hold the lead in that hand.

 

It's obvious to finesse, it's just a matter of starting with the jack or low.

[1eyedjack]

Running the jack on the first round loses to Kx or Qx on your left

and, as you pointed out earlier, running the J (with only one spare entry) also loses to stiff honour offside when low to T gains.

[foo]

??? WITW?

 

The best way to play Jxx:AT98 for 3 tricks, especially if you have limited entries to the short hand is to play the J, intending to run it if not covered and win the A if the J is covered.

 

You will win 3 tricks on all holding except where both missing honors are off-side.

When both missing honors are off-side you will take 2 tricks.

You are missing the point of the discussion.

 

Say you are in the dummy now, with just one more later entry. Running the jack on the first round loses to Kx or Qx on your left, since you can only repeat the finesse one more time. Leading low to the ten in your hand on the first round guards against that, since you can run the jack later and hold the lead in that hand.

 

It's obvious to finesse, it's just a matter of starting with the jack or low.

Whether you run the J or hook the T, you lose to Hx on your left.

Clearly, it also does not matter what you do if the suit is split Hxx:Hxx

 

Also, if both missing honors are offside and protected, you are only taking 2 tricks regardless of what you do.

Even KQ:xxxx rates to make you lose 2 tricks unless you somehow know that is the layout.

 

You are in Dummy =now=. You are only getting back once more.

 

If both missing honors are onside w/ that opponent short (but not KQ tight), they are going to split their honors most of the time no matter what and again you are limited to 2 tricks because of your limited dummy entries.

 

Your best chance for 3 tricks when both honors are on side and you are short dummy entries is to put the J on the felt and hope for xxx:HHx, xx:HHxx, or x:HHxxx and for RHO to Do The Wrong Thing.

 

That odds are against "fooling" Them. So play the suit "by the book".

[Stephen Tu]

Whether you run the J or hook the T, you lose to Hx on your left.

 

If you run the J 1st round, you lose 2 tricks vs. everybody with Hx. If you hook the T, you only lose to those good enough to duck with Hx.

 

If both missing honors are onside w/ that opponent short (but not KQ tight), they are going to split their honors most of the time no matter what and again you are limited to 2 tricks because of your limited dummy entries.

 

Huh? If KQ(xxx) is onside, the opponent is not supposed to split, and if they do, you have the T98 so you get your 3 tricks by winning A and driving out their other honor.

 

Your best chance for 3 tricks when both honors are on side and you are short dummy entries is to put the J on the felt and hope for xxx:HHx, xx:HHxx, or x:HHxxx and for RHO to Do The Wrong Thing.

 

Low to the T, then crossing back to run the J if it wins, works equally well vs. all these holdings. Running the J pays off to LHO holding the stiff Q or K, which low

to the T does not. Plus low to the T puts pressure on LHO to find the duck with Hx.

 

 

That odds are against "fooling" Them. So play the suit "by the book".

The book play is low to the T, then cross back & run the J if it wins.

[jdonn]

Whether you run the J or hook the T, you lose to Hx on your left.

Clearly, it also does not matter what you do if the suit is split Hxx:Hxx

 

Also, if both missing honors are offside and protected, you are only taking 2 tricks regardless of what you do.

Even KQ:xxxx rates to make you lose 2 tricks unless you somehow know that is the layout.

 

You are in Dummy =now=.  You are only getting back once more.

 

If both missing honors are onside w/ that opponent short (but not KQ tight), they are going to split their honors most of the time no matter what and again you are limited to 2 tricks because of your limited dummy entries.

 

Your best chance for 3 tricks when both honors are on side and you are short dummy entries is to put the J on the felt and hope for xxx:HHx,  xx:HHxx, or x:HHxxx and for RHO to Do The Wrong Thing.

 

That odds are against "fooling" Them.  So play the suit "by the book".

Foo...I've missed you :) Now let me try this again, very very slowly.

 

[hv=n=sjxx&w=skx&e=sqxxx&s=sat98]399|300|[/hv]

Dummy has Jxx, you (declarer) have AT98. You are in your hand with two outside entries to dummy. You use one of them to go to dummy now. And here the paths diverge.

 

Your way:

If you next lead the jack, it will go low, 8, king. Now you get in again. You use your second and final dummy entry. Now this is the position

 

[hv=n=sjxx&w=skx&e=sqxxx&s=sat98]399|300|[/hv]

You lead another, it goes low, ten, low. You are now stuck in your hand with no more dummy entries, so you can't finesse again. You end up taking two tricks in the suit, which consist of your one winning finesse on the second round, and the ace.

 

Now back up the train to....

 

The correct way:

Instead of leading the jack on the first round, you lead low, low, 8, king. Now you get in again. You use your second and final dummy entry. Now this is the position

 

[hv=n=sjxx&w=skx&e=sqxxx&s=sat98]399|300|[/hv]

The oh so crucial difference here is the jack still remains, so when you lead that card and it goes low, low, low you have HELD THE LEAD IN DUMMY to repeat the finesse one more time. You end up taking three tricks in the suit.

 

Do you see it now? I didn't make up an imaginary point about fooling the opponents. I didn't make reference to a nonexistant book. I simply demonstrated why leading low toward the ten on the first round of the suit is superior to leading the jack.

 

Note that both methods work equally well or badly when the KQ are both onside, both offside, Kx/Qx on your right, and Kxx/Qxx on your right. The critical case is the above one, with Kxxx/Qxxx on your right. (I am ignoring breaks worse than 4-2 but the solution does not change.)

 

Do you see it now?

[foo]

EDIT: deleting post