joshs Posted June 9, 2006 Report Share Posted June 9, 2006 You are palying 2/1, your opps are playing precision: P-P-4H-? [hv=d=w&v=n&s=skxxxhdj9xcakxxxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv] a. what do you bid? Lets say like me, you made an agressive x. and the auction continued:P-P-4H-xP-4S-P-P5H-P-P-? b. What now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kfgauss Posted June 9, 2006 Report Share Posted June 9, 2006 This depends a lot on your style of doubling/removing doubles of 4H. If partner likes to take out your takeout doubles, I'll pass now, but if partner thinks he needs reasonable shape to take out your doubles of 4H, then 5S is very tempting, but I'm still not sure I could bring myself to bid it. [Part a also depends on this consideration: if partner likes to take them out, sure I'll double, but if not, I would have passed. I suppose this means that in no case would I now be bidding 5S, as I either would've passed initially or I'd pass now.] Andy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pclayton Posted June 9, 2006 Report Share Posted June 9, 2006 Pard heard my double of 4♥ and passed the shoe to me. I don't think I have anything really special so I'll pass. It sounds like RHO is really heavy for 4♥. I'm guessing both 4♠ and 5♥ are -1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted June 9, 2006 Report Share Posted June 9, 2006 Is this really a problem? Pass, pass, pass. Sure they may not make it, sure you might make something, but you have done enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_U_Card Posted June 9, 2006 Report Share Posted June 9, 2006 Sometimes a pass is just that. You have 6 losers for a spade contract. To make 5S pard needs a 7 loser hand........and if he has it, why didn't he open? They may make 5 or 6 or 7 on the lead, they might go down too, once you have pushed them up a level, sit back and enjoy the fruits of your labor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted June 10, 2006 Report Share Posted June 10, 2006 I would also start with a double, but now I'm passing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcphee Posted June 10, 2006 Report Share Posted June 10, 2006 Isn't partners pass forcing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cade909 Posted June 10, 2006 Report Share Posted June 10, 2006 Pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted June 10, 2006 Report Share Posted June 10, 2006 Isn't partners pass forcing? Why should it be forcing? He never showed any values, and neither did you (extra's that is)... :rolleyes: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted June 10, 2006 Report Share Posted June 10, 2006 If I were to bid, and it is borderline, I'd bid 5C. Double has a huge risk of catching partner on no good suit and leaving in the double. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted June 11, 2006 Report Share Posted June 11, 2006 Isn't partners pass forcing? Yes. It forces me to pass. I am minimum for my double and partner did not want to take any action - double or 5S - so pass seems automatic (forced) for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted June 11, 2006 Report Share Posted June 11, 2006 Agree that pass now is automatic, I think that the previous call (pass, double, 5C?) was much more interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joshs Posted June 12, 2006 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2006 I guess I was the only person who thought this was an interesting problem. lets have a vote:a. How many tricks do we expect them to take? 9 tricks or less? 10 tricks? 11 tricks? 12 tricks? (Give probabilities)b. What distribution would you give on how many tricks we can take? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted June 12, 2006 Report Share Posted June 12, 2006 I guess I was the only person who thought this was an interesting problem. lets have a vote:a. How many tricks do we expect them to take? 9 tricks or less? 10 tricks? 11 tricks? 12 tricks? (Give probabilities)b. What distribution would you give on how many tricks we can take? Assuming pard is 4=2=4=3 shape with 7-8 working hcp (whcp) then I expect to take 9 tricks in spades. Assuming pard has 9-10 whcp I expect to take ten tricks. Assuming Pard has only 2 clubs then add one more trick. I expect the opp can make ten (65%) or eleven (35%) tricks in Hearts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hatchett Posted June 12, 2006 Report Share Posted June 12, 2006 I would pass. I have done a good thing by doubling and pushing to the 5 level, why should I try and win the board twice in the same hand? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blofeld Posted June 12, 2006 Report Share Posted June 12, 2006 I guess I was the only person who thought this was an interesting problem. lets have a vote:a. How many tricks do we expect them to take? 9 tricks or less? 10 tricks? 11 tricks? 12 tricks? (Give probabilities)b. What distribution would you give on how many tricks we can take? My gut feeling on this runs something like: a.9 or fewer 10%10 40%11 40%12 10% b.9 15%10 60%11 20%12 5% But then my gut feeling was also to bid 5♠ now. Very notably partner didn't pass 4♥x, and our hand has a higher than typical ODR for the auction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted June 12, 2006 Report Share Posted June 12, 2006 I guess I was the only person who thought this was an interesting problem. lets have a vote:a. How many tricks do we expect them to take? 9 tricks or less? 10 tricks? 11 tricks? 12 tricks? (Give probabilities)b. What distribution would you give on how many tricks we can take? A sucker bet... on any given hand, anything could make from 5♥ for them to 5♠ to you, or nothing can make. Just depends upon where the cards are. From your Response, I would guess that one side makes 11 tricks and the other 10 so the "correct" bid is 5♠ no matter which side wins 11. So what? Should that be the case, it makes 5♠ "the winning bid" but that outcome doesn't make double or 5♠ the "correct bid". And even in that case, if you bid 5♠ you might get it wrong, maybe it was far better to double, (neither side can amke 11 tricks), but if you doulbe, you miss your 5♠ when you make or you play 5♥X when they make. Without your follow up question, if I had to bet, I would think this is a 19 trick hand. or maybe a 20 trick hand. One thing seems clear, you will not run into a horrible spade split or they would have let you play 4♠. So partner likely has five, or if only four, they are spliting 3-2, and with five, no worse than 3-1. Without your follow up, my expectation would be for them to win 10 tricks. I expect we can win 10 tricks. I could be off by one trick for either side (we win 11, they win 10, or vise versa, or we win 9 they win 10 or vice versa). Bidding 5♠ wins if either side can make 11 tricks, loses if neither side can make 11 tricks, loses if it lets them bid 6♥ that makes, loses big if we can make only 8 tricks. Remember, you forced your partner to bid spades, how would you feel if he tabled four small spades to the Jack? (well you tabled your hand in spades and saw that). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joshs Posted June 12, 2006 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2006 I guess I was the only person who thought this was an interesting problem. lets have a vote:a. How many tricks do we expect them to take? 9 tricks or less? 10 tricks? 11 tricks? 12 tricks? (Give probabilities)b. What distribution would you give on how many tricks we can take? Assuming pard is 4=2=4=3 shape with 7-8 working hcp (whcp) then I expect to take 9 tricks in spades. Assuming pard has 9-10 whcp I expect to take ten tricks. Assuming Pard has only 2 clubs then add one more trick. I expect the opp can make ten (65%) or eleven (35%) tricks in Hearts I don't believe that is a possible hand. Lets say you held that hand, wouldn't you have x'ed 5H? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted June 12, 2006 Report Share Posted June 12, 2006 AQxx..xx...Kxxx..xxxorAQxx..xx....Qxxx...xxx AQxx..xx.....Qxxx....Jxx AQxx...xx.....Kxxx....Jxx Ok partner cannot have this hand, NV, We opened it in first and second seat. ;) Maybe I should x but no I would not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joshs Posted June 12, 2006 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2006 I guess I was the only person who thought this was an interesting problem. lets have a vote:a. How many tricks do we expect them to take? 9 tricks or less? 10 tricks? 11 tricks? 12 tricks? (Give probabilities)b. What distribution would you give on how many tricks we can take? A sucker bet... on any given hand, anything could make from 5♥ for them to 5♠ to you, or nothing can make. Just depends upon where the cards are. From your Response, I would guess that one side makes 11 tricks and the other 10 so the "correct" bid is 5♠ no matter which side wins 11. So what? Should that be the case, it makes 5♠ "the winning bid" but that outcome doesn't make double or 5♠ the "correct bid". And even in that case, if you bid 5♠ you might get it wrong, maybe it was far better to double, (neither side can amke 11 tricks), but if you doulbe, you miss your 5♠ when you make or you play 5♥X when they make. Without your follow up question, if I had to bet, I would think this is a 19 trick hand. or maybe a 20 trick hand. One thing seems clear, you will not run into a horrible spade split or they would have let you play 4♠. So partner likely has five, or if only four, they are spliting 3-2, and with five, no worse than 3-1. Without your follow up, my expectation would be for them to win 10 tricks. I expect we can win 10 tricks. I could be off by one trick for either side (we win 11, they win 10, or vise versa, or we win 9 they win 10 or vice versa). Bidding 5♠ wins if either side can make 11 tricks, loses if neither side can make 11 tricks, loses if it lets them bid 6♥ that makes, loses big if we can make only 8 tricks. Remember, you forced your partner to bid spades, how would you feel if he tabled four small spades to the Jack? (well you tabled your hand in spades and saw that). I don't think the cards are randomly distributed here. I think you have a lot of information about all 3 players hands... There has already been one VERY suprising turn of events here. You xed 4S, preying to god that if partner sits, that they are actually going down. Partner, thankfully bid 4S. And then passed 5H. I would have bet good money that partner was going to x 5H. This tells you a lot of information. I believe on this auction they are making 5H over 80% of the time and probably over 90% of the time. The main risk of bidding again, is not a phanton sac going for a number. It is pushing them to a making 6H. My matrix would have been:Making 6: 15%Making 5: 75%Making 4: 10%Making 3 or less, close to 0 This is based on partner not xing 5H when I have shown a LOT more defense than I actually have. As to what we are making. I find it hard to beleive that partner would not have xed even with a 42(43) 7 count. I expect most of the time partner has a 5'th spade, and usually some shape. So the question is: are we close to making? If I think they are [probably] making and we are close to making its clearing a good save at imps, unless it pushed them to 6H which is also making. Anyway, those were my thoughts when I gambled a 5S "save". Which part of the argument do you guys disagree with? As to the events matrix:5S wins BIG if either side (or both) can make 5.It loses BIG if it pushes them to a making 6It loses big if it goes down 2 xed when they weren't makingIt loses just a little if both sides were down 1.Note that the consequences assocaited with each of these combinations are different and I don't think the relative probability of each of these are anywhere close to equal.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted June 12, 2006 Report Share Posted June 12, 2006 I think you are giving the opponents credit to be making a lot more tricks than I would give them. Just give partner Axxx(x) of spades and out, and you have 4 top tricks, of which you need only 3 to stand up. I think they are more like 40%-50% to make. And I also don't like my own odds in spades that much. I will probably have to ruff a heart at trick 1, which will completely hamper my ability to use the clubs. Pass by a mile. By the way..what worked?! Or did you put save in quotation marks because it turned out to make? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted June 12, 2006 Report Share Posted June 12, 2006 I guess I was the only person who thought this was an interesting problem. lets have a vote:a. How many tricks do we expect them to take? 9 tricks or less? 10 tricks? 11 tricks? 12 tricks? (Give probabilities)b. What distribution would you give on how many tricks we can take? A sucker bet... on any given hand, anything could make from 5♥ for them to 5♠ to you, or nothing can make. Just depends upon where the cards are. From your Response, I would guess that one side makes 11 tricks and the other 10 so the "correct" bid is 5♠ no matter which side wins 11. So what? Should that be the case, it makes 5♠ "the winning bid" but that outcome doesn't make double or 5♠ the "correct bid". And even in that case, if you bid 5♠ you might get it wrong, maybe it was far better to double, (neither side can amke 11 tricks), but if you doulbe, you miss your 5♠ when you make or you play 5♥X when they make. Without your follow up question, if I had to bet, I would think this is a 19 trick hand. or maybe a 20 trick hand. One thing seems clear, you will not run into a horrible spade split or they would have let you play 4♠. So partner likely has five, or if only four, they are spliting 3-2, and with five, no worse than 3-1. Without your follow up, my expectation would be for them to win 10 tricks. I expect we can win 10 tricks. I could be off by one trick for either side (we win 11, they win 10, or vise versa, or we win 9 they win 10 or vice versa). Bidding 5♠ wins if either side can make 11 tricks, loses if neither side can make 11 tricks, loses if it lets them bid 6♥ that makes, loses big if we can make only 8 tricks. Remember, you forced your partner to bid spades, how would you feel if he tabled four small spades to the Jack? (well you tabled your hand in spades and saw that). I don't think the cards are randomly distributed here. I think you have a lot of information about all 3 players hands... There has already been one VERY suprising turn of events here. You xed 4S, preying to god that if partner sits, that they are actually going down. Partner, thankfully bid 4S. And then passed 5H. I would have bet good money that partner was going to x 5H. This tells you a lot of information. I believe on this auction they are making 5H over 80% of the time and probably over 90% of the time. The main risk of bidding again, is not a phanton sac going for a number. It is pushing them to a making 6H. My matrix would have been:Making 6: 15%Making 5: 75%Making 4: 10%Making 3 or less, close to 0 This is based on partner not xing 5H when I have shown a LOT more defense than I actually have. As to what we are making. I find it hard to beleive that partner would not have xed even with a 42(43) 7 count. I expect most of the time partner has a 5'th spade, and usually some shape. So the question is: are we close to making? If I think they are [probably] making and we are close to making its clearing a good save at imps, unless it pushed them to 6H which is also making. Anyway, those were my thoughts when I gambled a 5S "save". Which part of the argument do you guys disagree with? As to the events matrix:5S wins BIG if either side (or both) can make 5.It loses BIG if it pushes them to a making 6It loses big if it goes down 2 xed when they weren't makingIt loses just a little if both sides were down 1.Note that the consequences assocaited with each of these combinations are different and I don't think the relative probability of each of these are anywhere close to equal.... Ok you bid 5s...what hands did you play partner for with this bid?I would have guessed the odds against 5s being the winning bid at a bit under 3:1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joshs Posted June 12, 2006 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2006 AQxx..xx...Kxxx..xxxorAQxx..xx....Qxxx...xxx AQxx..xx.....Qxxx....Jxx AQxx...xx.....Kxxx....Jxx Ok partner cannot have this hand, NV, We opened it in first and second seat. :) Maybe I should x but no I would not. I think xing 5H is absolutely clearcut on all of those... I would expect 5H to go down about 110% of the time when holding those hands and there is a signifcant risk that you were making 4S, so you need to get as much compensation as possible... :) (Ok maybe 5H is only going down 98.8% of the time...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joshs Posted June 12, 2006 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2006 I guess I was the only person who thought this was an interesting problem. lets have a vote:a. How many tricks do we expect them to take? 9 tricks or less? 10 tricks? 11 tricks? 12 tricks? (Give probabilities)b. What distribution would you give on how many tricks we can take? A sucker bet... on any given hand, anything could make from 5♥ for them to 5♠ to you, or nothing can make. Just depends upon where the cards are. From your Response, I would guess that one side makes 11 tricks and the other 10 so the "correct" bid is 5♠ no matter which side wins 11. So what? Should that be the case, it makes 5♠ "the winning bid" but that outcome doesn't make double or 5♠ the "correct bid". And even in that case, if you bid 5♠ you might get it wrong, maybe it was far better to double, (neither side can amke 11 tricks), but if you doulbe, you miss your 5♠ when you make or you play 5♥X when they make. Without your follow up question, if I had to bet, I would think this is a 19 trick hand. or maybe a 20 trick hand. One thing seems clear, you will not run into a horrible spade split or they would have let you play 4♠. So partner likely has five, or if only four, they are spliting 3-2, and with five, no worse than 3-1. Without your follow up, my expectation would be for them to win 10 tricks. I expect we can win 10 tricks. I could be off by one trick for either side (we win 11, they win 10, or vise versa, or we win 9 they win 10 or vice versa). Bidding 5♠ wins if either side can make 11 tricks, loses if neither side can make 11 tricks, loses if it lets them bid 6♥ that makes, loses big if we can make only 8 tricks. Remember, you forced your partner to bid spades, how would you feel if he tabled four small spades to the Jack? (well you tabled your hand in spades and saw that). I don't think the cards are randomly distributed here. I think you have a lot of information about all 3 players hands... There has already been one VERY suprising turn of events here. You xed 4S, preying to god that if partner sits, that they are actually going down. Partner, thankfully bid 4S. And then passed 5H. I would have bet good money that partner was going to x 5H. This tells you a lot of information. I believe on this auction they are making 5H over 80% of the time and probably over 90% of the time. The main risk of bidding again, is not a phanton sac going for a number. It is pushing them to a making 6H. My matrix would have been:Making 6: 15%Making 5: 75%Making 4: 10%Making 3 or less, close to 0 This is based on partner not xing 5H when I have shown a LOT more defense than I actually have. As to what we are making. I find it hard to beleive that partner would not have xed even with a 42(43) 7 count. I expect most of the time partner has a 5'th spade, and usually some shape. So the question is: are we close to making? If I think they are [probably] making and we are close to making its clearing a good save at imps, unless it pushed them to 6H which is also making. Anyway, those were my thoughts when I gambled a 5S "save". Which part of the argument do you guys disagree with? As to the events matrix:5S wins BIG if either side (or both) can make 5.It loses BIG if it pushes them to a making 6It loses big if it goes down 2 xed when they weren't makingIt loses just a little if both sides were down 1.Note that the consequences assocaited with each of these combinations are different and I don't think the relative probability of each of these are anywhere close to equal.... Ok you bid 5s...what hands did you play partner for with this bid?I would have guessed the odds against 5s being the winning bid at a bit under 3:1. Lots of hands. You make up a hand with Hxxxx of spades, nothing in hearts and a 6-7 count and I felt it to be a good bet at imps. But this was an interesting problem in my mind because 5S is clearly a bad bid at mps, since you have already pushed them 1 level higher than some of the field... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joshs Posted June 12, 2006 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2006 Pass would have won 5 imps against 5H-x making 5 at the other table. In 5S, what is your opening lead with:A AQTxxxxx x xxx on this auction? Is the opening lead clear? (Forget that you know that dummy has a heart void). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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