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Try to make 3NT


Poky

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[hv=d=s&v=b&n=s8643ha6dj3cak987&s=sakqhkjt9dt82cj62]133|200|Scoring: IMP

1NT 2

2 3NT[/hv]

 

Lead: J - 3 - 5 [small=enc.] - ???

 

Play the play and try to get 9+ tricks!!!

 

P.S. 1NT was 15-17 but you opened a little light! ;)

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[hv=d=s&v=b&n=s8643ha6dj3cak987&s=sakqhkjt9dt82cj62]133|200|Scoring: IMP

1NT 2

2 3NT[/hv]

 

Lead: J - 3 - 5 [small=enc.] - ???

 

Play the play and try to get 9+ tricks!!!

 

P.S. 1NT was 15-17 but you opened a little light!  ;)

K, Ace, small to J & hope in a new spade :P

 

Paolo, at1839

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Ill play A, if no honor is droped ill continue with the K, if the Q didnt drop i have to decide how to play the s, since i dont see strong evidents either way, I will go with east, since this way if the spades are 3-3 i will only 3 h tricks and QXXX is also working for me. so after AK i take all my spades out and then A of H, collecting my small spade if possible, and finnesing to the J of H.
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s probably wont give us the 2 extra tricks we need, so I'll go for . A followed by running the 9. The only thing I might try is to play a to my J in trick 2, to 'make sure' (read 'hope') opponents don't find that switch. If they play a second I'll take with the Ace.
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[hv=d=s&v=b&n=s8643ha6dj3cak987&s=sakqhkjt9dt82cj62]133|200|Scoring: IMP

1NT 2

2 3NT[/hv]

 

Lead: J - 3 - 5 [small=enc.] - ???

 

Play the play and try to get 9+ tricks!!!

 

P.S. 1NT was 15-17 but you opened a little light!  ;)

The lead indicates that LHO likely has JT9x of S's. Playing for S's 3:3 is a nullo plan.

 

You win the S lead with the SK in tempo and only =then= pause for a long thought.

 

You have 7 top tricks and need 9.

 

The lead implies that RHO is more likely to have H or C length than LHO and therefore that RHO is more likely to hold the HQ and/or the CQ.

 

Put the CJ on the table, intending to run it if it is not covered by LHO.

LineA= CJ not covered and CJ wins. Play for 32 C's.

LineB= CJ not covered and RHO wins CQ.

Hope RHO returns a S thinking LHO led from AJTx and/or that D's are 4:4

Then play for C's 32 w/ split honors, holding the H finesse in reserve.

LineC= CJ covered. Win CA or CK and immediately take the H hook. Your hope is that H's are Q, Qx, or Qxx onside and that on the run of H's someone discards a C.

 

You are definitely in a race, and you definitely hope that D's are 4:4

 

Good Luck.

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I will assume the Jack denies a higher honor, so EAST knows the spade holding and will not be tricked into returning a spade regardless of what you do.

 

Since this is imps, I am not going to worry about down an extra or two. I win three rounds of spades. No luck there, then CLUB AK, hoping the queen falls, if no luck there, then I fall back on hearts (HEART ACE and heart hook) hoping for queen third with EAST. Of course fall of cards in other suits might influence my line of play, but probably not.I might win 3S, 4H, 2C, or 2H, 3S, 5C.

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You have 7 toptricks: 3, 2, 2.

You can't afford to lose a trick before you have your 9 tricks because of the -problem.

 

I believe I'll start with 3 rounds of and then cash AK. When nothing funny has happened (by which you can count the play), I'll play A and then take the finesse.

 

Chance is bigger that Q will fall than that Q will fall by cashing AK.

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I'll assume the opponents are not playing the much-maligned coded 9s and Ts, so RHO does not necessarily know that partner lacks a higher honor. I'll win the first spade trick with the queen (the one card LHO denies for sure) and play off the top clubs. If clubs break 3-2 with the queen still outstanding, I think I would try playing a third club! Obviously this line will go down most of the time on best defense (diamonds could block I suppose). But I suspect this play is more likely to succeed than aiming for Qxx of hearts onside against real opponents.

 

In fact another possibility is the "Zia" play of a diamond to the jack at trick two. This may induce the opponents to continue spades, then mistakenly try a major suit when in with the third club (but it may also go down spectacularly when the opponents run five diamond tricks right away after the shift and the club queen was doubleton all along).

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I'll assume the opponents are not playing the much-maligned coded 9s and Ts, so RHO does not necessarily know that partner lacks a higher honor. I'll win the first spade trick with the queen (the one card LHO denies for sure) and play off the top clubs. If clubs break 3-2 with the queen still outstanding, I think I would try playing a third club! Obviously this line will go down most of the time on best defense (diamonds could block I suppose). But I suspect this play is more likely to succeed than aiming for Qxx of hearts onside against real opponents.

I alsmost agree; I would rather run the J at trick two. Sane opponents will play either suit preference or Smith echo on the clubs, so they are much more likely to get it right when you give them 3 rounds of clubs to signal.

 

Arend

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  • 2 weeks later...
;) Ben has the play correct. Not a good situation. First try the spades, then try the clubs starting with the high honors. Your odds here are approximately 1/3 of 2/3 (queen drops doubleton) plus the queen drops singleton and either you can pick up the suit or get three tricks and the heart finesse works. Otherwise, try for two clubs and four hearts. You can combine these chances, so your overall situation is not too bad. I'm guessing around 40%.
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You have basically two lines of play:

1) the genuine line

2) various 'deceitful' lines

 

The best genuine line is to play for one of {clubs no loser} or {7 major suit tricks}. The best line for 4 tricks, no losers, in clubs is to cash the AK (this picks up any Qx and singleton Q on your right (30%); alternative of two finesses picks up any Q10 on your left and singleton 10 on your right (27%). As LHO might well have led a 5-card club suit, the AK line is a bit better than the odds show; also singleton queen on your left means you can still play on the majors. 4 tricks in hearts needs Qx or Qxx on our left, which is about 18% (less if you think LHO would lead a heart from 5 low rather than a spade from J109(x)). The combined chances of the genuine lines add up to around 55%.

 

There are various sneaky lines. If you are going to take a sneaky line, I would prefer to lose the first round of clubs before any signalling goes on. So I would win the spade with the king and run the jack of clubs at once. If this loses and they don't cash diamonds, I'm not certain I would now take another finesse, as this gives up on the majors coming in: it starts to feel like clubs are 3-2 anyway.

 

Which line is better depends on the standard of the opponents, so I don't think there's an absolute answer.

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You win the S lead with the SK in tempo and only =then= pause for a long thought.

That doesn't exactly sound highly ethical. I always thought you are supposed to pause for a long thought before playing the 3. :)

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Today I feel tricky. Win the spade queen and play a diamond(!!) to the 10 at trick 2. Next comes a spade to the ace. If all goes well, opps will think I have no more spades and I can now reach dummy with a heart to play a club to the jack. This loses but they insist on spades only to find out I now have 9 tricks :)

 

Or a lot of undertricks, of course :lol: :lol:

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