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Best chances of making 6S


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I was kibitzing some experts this morning and this hand came up:

 

[hv=d=e&v=e&n=sqj642h63d5c98653&s=sa9853ha9daj6caq4]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

Bidding went 1S-4S-6S (East/West were passing through out). (South bid 1S)

 

 

Opening lead was the spade 7, you play the Q and it is covered by the K.

What do you do next?

 

 

How would you play if the opening lead was a ?

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What a ghastly contract!

 

With a trump lead; I'll win the A, go back to the J, club to the Ace, A, ruff, club up.

 

At the table, I'll have a pretty good idea where the K is. On line its tougher, but I'll still get a sense. Against good players, I'll stick to my guns and play the Q, even if I lose to Kx on my left.

 

With a heart lead its much tougher, but I have some very slight chances. Basically, it comes down to drawing trump via a finesse, eliminating diamonds, taking one club hook and cashing the Ace and exit a . If the hand that wins the heart has no more clubs, I get a ruff/sluff.

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Cover King, lead trump to Dummy, finesse the Club Q, play Club ace, and another, hopefully establishing clubs.

 

Ops can return a heart that you win.

Ace and diamond Ruff to table. Discard on Clubs, or you may have to ruff anotehr club.

Then another diamond ruff to table and discard heart loser on the good club.

 

(I think this is similar to Phils line).

 

Phil, why would you have an idea of where the K Club is at the table?

What can you do if its offside unless Kx?

 

 

As for the 2nd scenario, the heart lead, why would the defender with hearts all ow the other defender to win the trick, unless by accident?

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Cover King, lead trump to Dummy, finesse the Club Q, play Club ace, and another, hopefully establishing clubs.

 

Ops can return a heart that you win.

Ace and diamond Ruff to table. Discard on Clubs, or you may have to ruff anotehr club.

Then another diamond ruff to table and discard heart loser on the good club.

 

(I think this is similar to Phils line).

 

Phil, why would you have an idea of where the K Club is at the table?

What can you do if its offside unless Kx?

 

 

As for the 2nd scenario, the heart lead, why would the defender with hearts all ow the other defender to win the trick, unless by accident?

I think cashing the A is clearly superior on technical grounds (you have to lose a club trick regardless, so you might as well try to pick up a stiff king off side). If you trust your table feel, it also gives you the chance to pick up Kx on your left.

 

With the heart lead, if the heart and club layouts are:

 

xxxx..................KQJTx

JTx....................Kx

 

you can eliminate the hand, finesse the club, cash the Ace and exit to the heart. Its not a big chance, but its better than nothing.

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♠QJ642♥63♦5♣98653

♠A9853♥A9♦AJ6♣AQ4

 

S Deals: 1S-4S;6S

 

What a ghastly contract!

My sentiments exactly! S overbid their hand by a considerable amount.

 

Opening lead was the S7, you play the SQ and it is covered by the SK. What do you do next?

How would you play if the opening lead was a H?

 

With a trump lead; I'll win the SA, go back to the SJ, Club to the CA, A, ruff, club up.

 

At the table, I'll have a pretty good idea where the K is. On line its tougher, but I'll still get a sense. Against good players, I'll stick to my guns and play the Q, even if I lose to Kx on my left.

 

With a heart lead its much tougher, but I have some very slight chances. Basically, it comes down to drawing trump via a finesse, eliminating diamonds, taking one club hook and cashing the Ace and exit a . If the hand that wins the heart has no more clubs, I get a ruff/sluff.

Sounds reasonable. OTOH, if LHO shows up with 2 S's or leads a Hx indicating a reasonable chance of having greater H length than RHO, IMHO Vacant Spaces suggests that the CK rates to be onside and one should take the C hook.

 

Also, it should be noted that Declarer has to preserve a S in hand that is smaller than one in dummy to get to a higher S on the board to cash the established C's later in the play.

 

I do =not= like Us being in < 25% slams. Particularly when CHO is presumably an Expert and the auction screamed for caution.

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How does running the 9 fare wrt to cashing the A and low to Q?

Running the 9 if it is not covered gains on

4 layouts- -:KJTxxx (3vs2) and x:KJTx (4vs3) and JT:Kxx (4vs3)

and loses on

3 layouts- KT:Jxx (3vs4) and KJ:Txx (3vs4) and KJTxx:- (1vs2)

 

Given the bidding, there's a decent argument for the top 4 layouts to be more likely than the bottom 3 layouts, but you've got some transportation issues...

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i don't see how it makes unless the club finesse is on, so i'd win the opening lead, draw the last trump (high to high), to the ace and ruff a diamond then duck a club all around.. win the return, ruff last diamond and finesse the Q ... watch entries to dummy
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How experts were these experts? Bidding six opposite a preemptive raise is just horrid.
I do =not= like Us being in < 25% slams. Particularly when CHO is presumably an Expert and the auction screamed for caution. 

 

 

Even if it is a 1% slam, it does not make the bid "horrid" unless you also consider the state of the match (and perphaps other conditions). Maybe that was the last hand and a desperate swing was needed...

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i don't see how it makes unless the club finesse is on, so i'd win the opening lead, draw the last trump (high to high), to the ace and ruff a diamond then duck a club all around.. win the return, ruff last diamond and finesse the Q ... watch entries to dummy

Why not duck a club immediately after drawing the second trump? That way you have 3 spade entries to dummy (2 diamond ruffs and high enough spade).

 

In your line, if instead of a defenders return a you might lose an entry to dummy prematurely. Also, once defense has won a club trick, I see no point in them attacking hearts. If defense gets in to cash a heart, the contract is already down... It is probably better to attack dummy's entries.

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i don't see how it makes unless the club finesse is on, so i'd win the opening lead, draw the last trump (high to high), to the ace and ruff a diamond then duck a club all around.. win the return, ruff last diamond and finesse the Q ... watch entries to dummy

Why not duck a club immediately after drawing the second trump? That way you have 3 spade entries to dummy (2 diamond ruffs and high enough spade).

 

In your line, if instead of a defenders return a you might lose an entry to dummy prematurely. Also, once defense has won a club trick, I see no point in them attacking hearts. If defense gets in to cash a heart, the contract is already down... It is probably better to attack dummy's entries.

you're right, there's no need to play a diamond first... but i don't agree that if i duck a club i'm down... if the club finesse wins, it makes even with a 4/1 split.. so, win the lead, lead the 9 to the J, duck a club.. win the red suit shift... you should have (assuming a heart came back)

 

[hv=n=s642h6d5c9865&s=s853h9daj6caq]133|200|[/hv]

 

play the A and ruff a , finesse the Q, play the ace.. if clubs were 4/1 on the right, ruff another , ruff a club (with the 8) and lead the 3 to dummy's 6... now toss the last heart on the good club

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you're right, there's no need to play a diamond first... but i don't agree that if i duck a club i'm down...

I never disputed that, I agree with you here. In fact I think running the club 9 on the first club trick could be the best play. (Though seems like the majority opinion is to cash the A and then play a to Q...)

 

I was disputing the cashing of A before ducking a club.

 

Also, why do you always assume a return? A return seems more probable to me... (as a heart return seems to do no good to defense.. it is too late to set up a heart trick)

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cause most defenders would try to set up the setting trick, ony seeing the stiff in dummy.. in any case, it wouldn't matter.. take the A, ruff one, finesse, etc

 

as for ducking a club vs. playing the ace, i have no idea which is better but it seems better intuitively to duck first... my intuition has been wrong before though

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