To Slam or Not to slam: that is the question.

[Winstonm]

[hv=d=s&v=b&n=sa2ha83dq104cakq87&s=skq104hk1042da98c92]133|200|Scoring: IMP

Just got back from OKC where we lost in the quarterfinals of the KOs on this hand, a 20 imp swing. Looking at both hands, do you bid the slam or not? For the mathematicians, what odds of making do you calculate this slam to be?[/hv]

 

For the record, our auction was simple:

1D-2C

2N-4N

P.

[Codo]

easy pass imo..should be hard enough to make 4 NT ;)

[P_Marlowe]

simple and easy auction.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[inquiry]

Looking at the hands, I don't want to be in slam. But for what it is worth, after partner opens 1♦, the north hand is a ZAR monster...

 

19 HCP

11 Distributional points

7 Control points

2 FIT points for QT of diamonds

 

That comes to 39 ZAR points, and an opening biid on a bad say is 25 ZAR points, sot 25+39 = 64 ZAR points. Zar suggest that with "fit" 62 Zar points is enough, so the question is does this represent a "fit" (no, which is why it is a bad slam).

 

For percentage, I like my changes to make if ♣ are 3-3 or JT doubleton (38%) (will not always make, but with 11 tricks and squeezes and double hook in diamonds, the odds are good). While there is a small extra chance when singleton K or J of diamonds and you guess right (when clubs are wrong)... If East has five clubs, play WEST for singleton King or jack, if West has long clubs, play EAST for singleton K. I would hold it in reserve until I tried for 4S and a possible endplay in clubs or hearts for a forced ♦ lead.

 

Even with the enplay possibilliites (whoever is thrown in with club has to have doubleton heart and the spade J has to come down) it still seems less than 50%.

[foo]

♠A2♥A83♦QT4♣AKQ87

 

♠KQT4♥KT42♦A98♣92

 

31 HCP w/o a fit and without something special going on doth not a good slam create.

 

Sorry for the 20 IMP swing, but the Opposition was clearly swinging and got lucky.

[bid_em_up]

I'm still trying to figure out how 4N making against slam bid at other table represents a 20 imp swing.

[foo]

I'm still trying to figure out how 4N making against slam bid at other table represents a 20 imp swing.

It's impossible, so Something Else must have happened.

[cherdano]

I'm still trying to figure out how 4N making against slam bid at other table represents a 20 imp swing.

4N making vs slam making compared to 4N making vs slam going down sounds like 20 IMP difference...

[bid_em_up]

In the first case, 1440-660/690 = 780/750, which is lose 12 or 13. The second case is 630-690 + (100/200/300, or 200/500/800) which is again 12 or more. So a 24+ imp swing, I could understand, but 20?

 

And the auction is presented in such a way, that leads me to believe that his table stopped in 4N making, and the opponents bid and made the slam at the other table.

 

So again, how is this a 20 imp swing?

[Winstonm]

I'm still trying to figure out how 4N making against slam bid at other table represents a 20 imp swing.

4N making vs slam making compared to 4N making vs slam going down sounds like 20 IMP difference...

-1440 verses +690 instead of +660 and +100.

 

And you are right, it was a difference of 26 imps: +13 or -13.

 

My mistake, we lost the match by 20, of which 13 were on this board. Had it gone the other way, we would have 13 more imps while they would have had 13 fewer.

 

They (Don Stack and Co.) were leading by 7. Making 6 gave them 20 total, while going down in the slam would have meant for them a loss by 6.

[HeartA]

with 19 hcp, decent support for pd's opening suit, and controls on all other suits, I would bid slam directly. But it would not save the match anyway.

[civill]

pass for lower case of hand