Counting

[han]

I said no such thing.

well you said this

"With x xxx KQJxxx Qxx west would likely have opened 3D at these colors"

and i said this

"with the club Q west might have opened some number of diamonds" since "there are 9 hcp out and west is known to hold 5 of them, east 2"

 

 

so the two statements appear similar to me

The point was that west would be more likely to open 3D with 1-3-6-3 shape than with 1-4-6-2 shape, not that west would be more likely to open 3D with the club queen. I think that this is evident when you read my whole post, not just the sentence you quoted Jimmy.

[ArcLight]

Frances are you going to post the hand?

[jdeegan]

B) I don't think we can draw any inference from the ♥ Q discard. RHO knows the distribution of the heart suit. If LHO had not passed first seat, I would consider his having three clubs or two clubs as equally likely, so finessing RHO for the club queen makes sense.

 

However,

there must be some reason for that initial pass rather than a 2♦ weak two bid. The most likely is that he has four hearts - I would bet on it assuming that is what they play. (If not, back to original plan). Now, I may pay off to the Q doubleton of clubs, but bridge (they tell me) is a game of percentages.