Counting

[Finch]

We recently lost an important match by 5 imps. Well, there are 26 at stake on this hand which could have come out of an intermediate textbook:

 

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=sqj98hak5da8ca1053&s=sak1072hj4d753ckj8]133|200|Scoring: IMP

P 1♣ P 1♠

3♦ 4♠ P 4NT

P 5♣ P 5♦

P 5♠ P 6♣

P 6♦ P 6♠

all pass[/hv]

 

(the meaning of all the auction isn't that relevant, but North showed 3 key cards, the queen of spades and denied the queen of clubs)

 

The play starts as follows:

King of diamonds lead taken by the Ace on which East plays a highish pip (standard count).

Three rounds of trumps on which West discards two diamonds

AK of hearts and a ruff, to which all follow

You exit in diamonds. West wins and plays another diamond which you ruff in the dummy, East discarding the Queen of hearts.

 

You are down to 4 clubs in the dummy, 3 clubs and a trump in hand. How do you play the club suit, and why?

 

[The very sad thing about this hand is that my partner took the correct line, and went off. That wouldn't have happened in a textbook.]

[ArcLight]

Francis,

 

Do the opponents use 2♦ as a weak 2 bid? OR does it have a different meaning, such as Flannery, Multi, etc.

 

The reason I ask is for West to hold KJQxxx in Diamonds, White on Red, (Not Vul vs Vul opps) and not open the bidding at 2♦ seems unusual to me.

 

Some players wont open a weak 2 with a void, but from the carding you have described, West has 1 Spade, and at least 3 Hearts.

 

Some players also will not bid a weak 2 with a 4 card major. Does that fit your opponents bidding style?

 

Because then it implies that west has what they consider a flawed 2♦ bid, they have 4 hearts.

 

West is: 1=4=6=2

 

Therefore the percentage play is to place East with the missing ♣Q.

 

In any case, West doesn't need anything more than the diamond suit we've seen to bid 2♦, and having the club Q wouldnt cause them to bid 3.

 

 

I place the Q with East and will also go down when West has it. :rolleyes:

Its the percentage play, which works in the long run.

[inquiry]

Hidden stuff... simple counting as proposed in the problem, and some personality types discussion to make the dry mathematics a little more interesting.

 

 

The question is who to finessee for the ♣Q (you can play to drop doubleton queen with WEST, but that is the same as finessing him for it anyway, as EAST can not have a doubleton). The distribution is either EAST 3-4-2-4 or EAST 3-5-2-3. Don't read too much in the ♥Queen discard as he would discard that from either four or five ♥'s. With 3♣ without the ♣Queen, he might be MORE tempted to discard the ♥Queen to look like someone with 4♣'s, as he knows now that you are missing ♣Queen or you would have claimed, or you are missing ♣king in which case you will hook his partner's king.

 

So here is the logic to the play. When ♣'s are 3-3, finessing the queen either way is the same quess (50-50 proposition). When ♣'s are 4-2, the queen is more likely to be with the hand with 4[♣'s. That is, if ♣'s are 4/2, the queen is with the hand with 4♣ 67% of the time. So there are two ways you can calculate the odds on way to play the hand. The first is to make an assumption about the chances of ♣ being 42 versus 33. If you assume 50-50 chance for each, hooking EAST for queen is 58.5%, if you assume it is only 10% chance, hooking EAST is only 51.7%, if just one percent chance, hooking east is 50.17%. Finally if you assume it is 0% chance, hooking EAST (or west) is 50%. Since there is some chance ♣ are 4-2, the odds favor playing EAST for the ♣Q. The second way is easier. Since if ♣ are 3-3, you can hook either way, ignore that in your calculations. And when they are 4-2 hook the hand with four, and since they are either 3-3 or 4-2 with EAST having four, hook EAST.

 

If you just can't stand a clever east throwing ♥Q from ♥QT and three small ♣ you could hook WEST, but mathematically that is a mistake (regardless of what ♥ EAST throws). But if YOU know EAST to be the sort of person who would only throw the Queen from stiff queen, then it is toss up which way to play, as ♣ will be 3-3 (this person would be a beginner or low intermediate). On the other hand, if you know EAST to be the sort of person only to throw the queen from stiff queen (obviously) or from QT but only when lacking the the ♣Queen (to look like someone with four ♣ to persuade you to hook him), then the odds again, oddly, SWING in favor of hooking WEST for the ♣Queen (since all the times clubs are 3-3 the ♣Q will be with WEST, and if he is 4-2, the ♣ queen would be with west 33% of the time. But if East will randomly throw the ♥Queen from any heart holding with it, the original odds hold true. Knowing your opponenets tendnecies can be very useful here. BTW, if you opponent is the type to always throw the QUEEN from QT when not holding the ♣ queen, don't tell him why you "guessed it right". As long as he is in the dark, you own him.

 

[Finch]

Opponents are not playing a weak two in diamonds.

[ArcLight]

>Opponents are not playing a weak two in diamonds

 

I think E has 3-4 Clubs and W 2-3, so the odds are slightly in favor of East having the Q.

 

- I don't think the heart Q discard is of much value.

 

- I dont think W needed the Club Q for the 3♦ bid, given the vulnerability. However, both opps had a chance to bid, so its preemption value is lessened.

[sfbp]

Noone discarded a club. That's odd, because against good opps the one with the Qxx might easily discard one to put me off.

 

If East has Qxxx he probably discard one too for the same reason. West cannot have Qxxx.

 

Clubs are either 3-3 or someone has Qx.

 

I am playing clubs from the top.

 

Stephen

[inquiry]

Noone discarded a club. That's odd, because against good opps the one with the Qxx might easily discard one to put me off.

 

If East has Qxxx he probably discard one too for the same reason. West cannot have Qxxx.

 

Clubs are either 3-3 or someone has Qx.

 

I am playing clubs from the top.

 

Stephen

Losing to all 3-3 clubs and 67% of all 4-2 club splits. I can hardly see how this line is any good at all. Further, why would anyone throw a club from any holding (to put you off or otherwise)? Even if clubs are 3-3 and EAST is tricky with 3 clubs and two hearts, and wants to look like a man with 4♣, pitching a club can hardly improve his chances... especially if people are going to take a totally wacky line simply because no club was pitched.

[sfbp]

Well, there is one additional element - OP said there was a problem :)

 

These are the hands I always get wrong at the table anyway.

 

sfbp

[inquiry]

Well, there is one additional element - OP said there was a problem :)

 

These are the hands I always get wrong at the table anyway.

 

sfbp

Every bridge hand is a problem :-)

[han]

I'm with Ben on this one, and I'd like to add one more hidden argument for his line:

With x xxx KQJxxx Qxx west would likely have opened 3D at these colors, so I think that makes it more likely that west is 1-4-6-2 and that the 4-card major detered west from opening 3D. I admit that I would have opened 3D with either hand though.

[sfbp]

I'm sure you're right. I just felt a little flippant :)

 

It's clear overcaller is 1=4=6=2 and so the finesse is favoured. Ergo, what's the problem?

 

Stephen

[luis]

Noone discarded a club. That's odd, because against good opps the one with the Qxx might easily discard one to put me off.

 

If East has Qxxx he probably discard one too for the same reason. West cannot have Qxxx.

 

Clubs are either 3-3 or someone has Qx.

 

I am playing clubs from the top.

 

Stephen

Nobody will discard a club from Qxx that would be too obvious.

 

Luis

[mikeh]

As readers know, I have great respect for Frances, but I think that this problem is more complex than it appears. It might well appear in an intermediate text, but, if so, with a dumbed down analysis. My thoughts are hidden:

 

 

 

If the ♥Q is an honest card, the inference to be drawn is that west was 1=4=6=2 and so East should be finessed in ♣.

 

However, if East holds Qxxxx Qxx in ♣, he should play a low ♥, leaving the placement of the 13th ♥ uncertain, while if he holds Qxxxx xxx, he should pitch the ♥Q to maximize the apparent odds of finessing him for the ♣.

 

Several posters have commented on E pitching a ♣ from Qxxx or Qxx.... Luis said that no-one would do that because it was too obvious: ok, Luis, against you, I pitch from xxxx :)

 

I think that, on balance, the odds are somewhat in favour of the hook through East, but I doubt that they are as good as most believe

 

 

 

[inquiry]

 

However, if East holds Qxxxx Qxx in ♣, he should play a low ♥, leaving the placement of the 13th ♥ uncertain, while if he holds Qxxxx xxx, he should pitch the ♥Q to maximize the apparent odds of finessing him for the ♣.

 

A comment here....

 

 

Note in my hidden text in my first post about "owning" people who play too dogmatically.

 

Mikeh repeat that concept here by discarding a ♣ from xxx to "own luis". What he doesn't know, and we will not tell him as it is a secret, we all know own him because his strategy is with five hearts he pitches low heart when holding ♣Qxx and heart queen from five when holding ♣xxx.

 

For what it is worth, I suspect really mikeH will play a high heart and a low heart some of the time when holding five hearts regardless of where the ♣Queen is sitting, at least against a thinking opponent. Bluff, counter bluff... :-)

 

[mikeh]

 

However, if East holds Qxxxx Qxx in ♣, he should play a low ♥, leaving the placement of the 13th ♥ uncertain, while if he holds Qxxxx xxx, he should pitch the ♥Q to maximize the apparent odds of finessing him for the ♣.

 

A comment here....

 

 

Note in my hidden text in my first post about "owning" people who play too dogmatically.

 

Mikeh repeat that concept here by discarding a ♣ from xxx to "own luis". What he doesn't know, and we will not tell him as it is a secret, we all know own him because his strategy is with five hearts he pitches low heart when holding ♣Qxx and heart queen from five when holding ♣xxx.

 

For what it is worth, I suspect really mikeH will play a high heart and a low heart some of the time when holding five hearts regardless of where the ♣Queen is sitting, at least against a thinking opponent. Bluff, counter bluff... :-)

Agreed in part: as another recent thread commented (in far more mathematical detail than I could ever muster), a certain degree of randomization is best: but my strategy (as outlined in my hidden text) would not appear to require (as much)randomization since declarer cannot tell how many ♥ I have: so my choice of ♥ discard allows no clear inference.

 

I will leave to the mathematicians amongst us the question of whether and to what extent randomization is required: the reality is that I suspect that one could play many thousands of hands without duplicating this situation, so no one will remember what I did last time anyway :)

[luke warm]

i (obviously) don't know what's right here, but my thinking is like han's, in that

with the club Q west might have opened some number of diamonds... there are 9 hcp out and west is known to hold 5 of them, east 2... so since i don't think west passes with 7hcp and a 6 card suit, i'd have to play east for the queen

[han]

i (obviously) don't know what's right here, but my thinking is like han's, in that

with the club Q west might have opened some number of diamonds... there are 9 hcp out and west is known to hold 5 of them, east 2... so since i don't think west passes with 7hcp and a 6 card suit, i'd have to play east for the queen

I said no such thing.

[luke warm]

I said no such thing.

well you said this

"With x xxx KQJxxx Qxx west would likely have opened 3D at these colors"

and i said this

"with the club Q west might have opened some number of diamonds" since "there are 9 hcp out and west is known to hold 5 of them, east 2"

 

 

so the two statements appear similar to me

[ArcLight]

So what was the hand Frances?

[Finch]

Who's Francis?

[whereagles]

Francis Blake, capitain of the MI5 and friend of Philip Mortimer B)

[Thymallus]

I don't see how one can work out for sure who has the queen of clubs. It seems marginally more likely that East has it.

 

I would play off the remaining trump to see if I get any more info, like a heart/club discard from east. Then play a low club from hand and watch East carefully. If he/she sits there as quiet as a mouse this is a moderately good poker tell for them having the Queen. Similarly if they start reaching for their card as you play from hand they probably don't have the Queen.

 

Without any info I suppose I would play east for the missing Q though the 2 Diamond overcall seems very frisky.

 

I discovered, serendipitously, that if you print a thread then hidden text is revealed. Is there an easier way to see hidden text without destroying rain forests :P

 

Thanks

 

john

[1eyedjack]

I discovered, serendipitously, that if you print a thread then hidden text is revealed. Is there an easier way to see hidden text without destroying rain forests :P

Drag your mouse over it (with the mouse button depressed)

[inquiry]

I discovered, serendipitously, that if you print a thread then hidden text is revealed. Is there an easier way to see hidden text without destroying rain forests :P

Drag your mouse over it (with the mouse button depressed)

You can also hit the "quote" button and then scroll through the text... or cut and paste it if you want into something esle.

[han]

or use recycled paper.