Missing something obvious again?

[grbradt]

[hv=n=sat643h6dk76ca532&s=sqj9haj9daq43ck84]133|200|Here is an example from Watson's Play of the Hand. Contract is 3NT, and west opening lead is ♥4, and east plays ♥Q. Watson now comments that "By applying the Rule of Eleven on his own behalf, the Declarer can see that a hold-up in hearts will do him no good". I don't understand this, east has at least 3 hearts, but if suit divides 6-3 a hold-up would work if the spade finesse fails...I agree going up with the A and hoping the J-9 develop into a second stopper is probably the percentage play, but what does rule of eleven have to do with it? [/hv]

[Finch]

I also don't see why hearts can't be 6-3, although the odds favour them to be 5-4 (LHO can have 5 hearts in lots more ways than he can have 6, where he has to have the 432 of the suit if it's a genuine 4th highest).

 

Minor point: if you take the first heart, remember to start with the ace of spades in case RHO has singleton king.

 

Watson might have wondered what was wrong with 4S as a contract.