And you thought it was going to be easy

[Gerben42]

After a slam try auction it always looks silly to go down in a lower contract. This is exactly the danger you face on the following hand.

 

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=sakq52ha64dkq92ct&s=s87hq75da74caq873]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

Uncontested auction starting from South:

 

1NT (12-15)

- 2♦ (GF relay)

3♣ (5♣)

- 3♦ (Relay)

3♥ (2335)

- 4NT (Quantitative)

Pass (Minimum)

 

The lead is ♠J and you duck, hoping it was from JT9x or the like after the pinpointed doubleton in declarer's hand. No such luck, LHO leads another round and you win, RHO discarding a Diamond.

 

How do you make this one?

[Free]

I'm going for ♣ right away, planning to endplay West in ♠ and get my 10th trick from ♥Q. I need a 9th trick first, which I hope will come from ♣-♦ pressure for RHO. It's quite difficult to say how I'll play EXACTLY, since too many possibilities and inferences will occur... But at trick 2 I'll let ♣T run.

[Gerben42]

For Frederick and others, if at trick 3 (remember you ducked a ♠ and then won the second) you lead ♣10 preparing to run it:

 

 

West wins the King and returns a small Diamond

(hidden)

[mikeh]

The main problem with running the ♣10 is that, should it lose to the Jack or even if it drives out the King, you are very short of entries to establish and enjoy the ♣.

 

But consider losing to the Jack, and back comes a ♠. I assume we pitch a ♦ but now how do we come back to our hand to play the ♣A and then guess whether the K is tripleton (exit low) or the 9 is tripleton (exit the Q)? If we cross in ♦ then even if we get the ♣ right, we will still be down. The opps will have won 3 black tricks and by exiting a ♠ (LHO) or a ♦ (RHO) they will stick us on dummy, forced to surrender a trick to the ♥ K even if it is onside.

 

Losing to the K improves our chances: back a ♠, now we come to our hand in ♦ and establish our long ♣, but we still lose another ♣ trick: LHO cannont hold KJ9 if he won the 10 with the K, and RHO cannot have J9x or he would have covered the 10. And whoever wins the 2nd defensive ♣ trick puts us in dummy and the defence gets the ♥K.

 

So if the ♣ 10 forces the K, we do NOT set up our long ♣: we win LHO's assumed ♠ in dummy and lead a ♥ to the Queen. If it wins or if RHO pops the K, we have 10 tricks. If it loses, we play for a minor suit squeeze on RHO.

 

However, running the 10♣ requires misdefence, albeit perhaps easy to make misdefence: would/should RHO cover with Jxxx?

 

We can improve our chances, if we lose the 1st ♣ to the J, by trying to get back to our hand in ♥ (assuming a ♠ exit): if the K is onside, then the opps can take it and give us our 2nd ♥ trick or duck it and lose it. If the ♥ is offside, we have compounded our problems, since they can now exit in ♥.

 

My line: win the 2nd ♠, play a ♣ to the Q. If it loses, and a ♥ comes back, I have to duck (presumably losing) and I now play for a minor suit squeeze on east: the count will have been rectified for me.

 

If a ♠ comes back, win, pitching a ♣ and lead a ♥, hoping for the K onside and a minor squeeze as before

 

If the ♣ hook wins, I am up to 9 tricks and have a choice of plays for 10. I think I would exit a low ♣, pitching a ♠ from dummy: I would not want to play A and a ♣ because I am squeezing dummy. I have not worked out all of the permutations but I think the worst case depends on the ♥K being onside.

 

I have not tried to cover all the possibilities (thus I have not discussed LHO winning the ♣K at trick 3 and making the unlikely return of a minor ;) )