Finesse or Safety play at Pairs...

[badderzboy]

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=sa754hq7dkqcaq876&s=skhaj10983da3ckj53]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

You bid to 6♥ after the following auction

 

1♥-p-2♣-X (♦/♠s)-3♥- opps now silent-3♠cue-4♦cue-...-6♥

 

Opps lead low ♣ which I took in dummy and led Q♥ and East plays low...

 

Do u finesse and try for 13 or take the Ace and make the easy 12...

 

Playing MPs of course...

 

Steve

[joker_gib]

♣ lead is a single (I hope) and there is no communication between the defenders so I finesse at MP

 

Alain

[hotShot]

Opponent lead low ♣, despite the fact his partner showed ♦ and ♠.

Why would he do that? Playing a single (holding 3♥?)? Hoping partner can ruff this or next round? How does he want to get to lead ♣ again?

I'll take the ace and follow high trump.

Making is good enough for me.

[joker_gib]

If I had bid 3♣ (what I would have done and not 3♥) I think I would take the 12 tricks cause my LHO would know that there is a ♣ shortness in front.

 

As I did not mention the ♣, I'm pretty sure that the lead is a single.

 

Am I wrong ? They have a ruff ! Bad luck ! Next board please ! ;)

 

Alain

[hotShot]

If LHO has single ♣, RHO has 3♣ and he should have 9 cards in ♦ and ♠. So i have seen RHO only ♥ already and the finesse will not work.

If RHO has single ♣ he has 2♥. LHO than has 3♥ and the chance is 60% the K is with LHO. If i finesse at once, LHO can play a club and RHO can ruff. I don't want that to happen. So i have to play the ace and draw a 2nd round of trump.

Edited April 11, 2006 by hotShot

[Blofeld]

What's the field like?

 

We've got 33 points between the two hands, so I'd expect the majority of most fields to be in slam. That being the case, I finesse trying to make 13.

 

Should also note that taking the ace doesn't guarantee 12. If the K is doubleton with either player and they can give their partner a club ruff ...

[kenrexford]

Two reasons for the safety play.

 

1. RHO doubled, and yet only seven HCP's are out there. Give him 5521 pattern, where it might matter, and the best he holds is QJxxx-Kx-J10987-x. That is a pretty lousy hand for offense, with some defense, where the double seems insane. Partner would then have xxx-xxx-xxxx-xxx, where leading one of partner's suits seems more plausible. Change it slightly to QJxxx-xx-J10987-x, and the offense-to-defense ratio increases. LHO would then have xxx-Kxx-xxxx-xxx, where a club lead makes sense.

 

2. The contract is ugly. I'd imagine that, with double stoppers in both sides suits and a double fit (trumping potential), at least half of the field is in 6NT. This is especially likely as most will not get this lead. If the "normal" play in hearts works, or makes no difference, we score probably 3 on a 12. If the abnormal play fails, we lose 3. If the abnormal play gains, however, we end up with about a 5 1/2. But, it is even worse. Most in 6H will not get this lead because they will not get this auction. So, it seems more like a 1/2 to 5 1/2 difference, perhaps. These numbers do not scream for the abnormal, but they bolster my inclination to follow instinct, as there is real potential of gain.

[Free]

Why aren't you in 6NT? Then you can safely finesse... :unsure:

[mikeh]

We can forget all those in 6N: they will be finessing and making 12 or 13 tricks: the only way we can outdo them is by dropping the stiff ♥K offside, which is not a high frequency occurence even without the auction.

 

But there are some other pairs we need to be concerned with.

 

Those who miss slam: we can maximize our chances of beating them by making the safety play: the only way we lose is by going down, so we do our best to avoid that.

 

Those who reach 6♣: if they get a ♥ lead, they will rise and pull trump. Otherwise they pull trump and finesse. Either way, they make, and whether they make 6 or 7 is irrelevant. What matters is that you can beat them by making your contract, and the overtrick is irrelevant. So you should safety play the trump suit if your goal is to outdo the 6♣ bidders

 

Those who reach 6♥ and get a different lead, probably with silent opps.

 

They will all take the hook. But if we take the hook, trying to stay level with them, we go down whenever the hook loses and LHO has made a lead from shortness. How likely is it that he has 3♣?

 

A 3 card holding in a unsupported suit seems like an odd lead: it seems to me that it is more likely that he has a stiff and hoped for his partner to hold either the ♣A or the trump ♥. He cannot expect either if he holds the trump K, so this argues for the hook.

 

However, there would seem to be a non-trivial chance that LHO has been clever with 3♣ and Kxx of trump: which means that, compared to other 6♥ players, we are at a disadvantage if we play for the hook. We break even when the hook wins and lose some of the time when the hook loses, and never gain when the hook loses.

 

The issue is just how strong an inference (that LHO has a stiff♣) are we prepared to draw?

 

I think that there are more cases where the play of the ♥A wins than when it loses.

 

As to what is at stake: going down is easy to estimate: 0

 

Making one trick less than the field still gets you some mps: beating the non-slammers, the ♣ slammers.

 

Making 13 tricks via a finesse gets you maybe 65-70% on the board.

 

I'd play the A, but I'd really like to be at the table :unsure:

[Finch]

Those who reach 6♣: if they get a ♥ lead, they will rise and pull trump. Otherwise they pull trump and finesse. Either way, they make, and whether they make 6 or 7 is irrelevant. What matters is that you can beat them by making your contract, and the overtrick is irrelevant. So you should safety play the trump suit if your goal is to outdo the 6♣ bidders

I think there will be a lot of 6C bidders. After all, it's our 9-card fit.

 

I haven't yet got a bad board for bidding and making a slam in a pairs competition. Even with 33-high.