Let's talk about judgement

[cherdano]

Sorry for stealing the title, Frances, but I can't remember any system problems over the 96 boards last weekend either, just judgement problems.

 

1.

[hv=d=n&v=n&s=saqjxh8xxxdct97xx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

1♦-P-1♥-P

2♥-P-P-2♠

P-P-?[/hv]

 

2.

[hv=d=n&v=n&s=saqjxh8xxxdct97xx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

1♦-P-1♥-P

2♥-P-P-2♠

P-P-?[/hv]

2♣ was XYZ, so partner has shown an invite in spades.

 

(Edit: 4th club was missing.)

 

3.

[hv=d=n&v=n&s=saqjxh8xxxdct97xx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

1♦-P-1♥-P

2♥-P-P-2♠

P-P-?[/hv]

 

4.[hv=d=n&v=n&s=saqjxh8xxxdct97xx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

1♦-P-1♥-P

2♥-P-P-2♠

P-P-?[/hv]

 

5. [hv=d=n&v=n&s=saqjxh8xxxdct97xx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

1♦-P-1♥-P

2♥-P-P-2♠

P-P-?[/hv]

 

(Edit: Vuln corrected.)

 

6.

[hv=d=n&v=n&s=saqjxh8xxxdct97xx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

1♦-P-1♥-P

2♥-P-P-2♠

P-P-?[/hv]

Edited April 3, 2006 by cherdano

[inquiry]

1. I pass, I have their suit, I lack partners first suit, and I don't have "my suit" (8xxx).

 

2, We are not vul, so I don't have to push for game. Still, I have a very nice hand. If partners 2♠ promised four card support I will bid game. If it could be 3 card support, I will bid a non-forcing but strongly invitational 3♦... this hand is FAR from a minimum.

 

3. I play 2/3 doubles. Here I pass showing 1 or 4+ clubs. This will put the ball back in partners court, and protect us from evil things should he have opened light in third seat (as a side benefit).

 

4. Pass, easy. We are not vul, partner could have dirt.

 

5. Bid on scout.. We are RED they are not, partner will have a nice jump here, including five or more likely six card support. I think 3NT/5♣/6♣ are all still in the picture (after all 6♣ but two sets of AK is already 10 tricks). I will bid 3♥ pinpointing need for ♦ for 3NT to start off with.

 

6. If everyone is being truthful, RHO has 11, LHO has 8, partner has ZER0. This is imps, a double might work out (1♠, 2♣, 2♦, 1♥) for down two. But if spade ACE shows in dummy and someone has a singleton. or if each oppoenent has a singleton, your +500 on a good day can quickly becaime huge minus. Partner will not cooperate if you bid, and if you double, he might "run" anyway. The only option to pass is to bid 3NT and to hope partner has 4 to 5 clubs so you win 5C, 2D, 1H, 1S on a spade lead. A surprise heart lead or a bad club split will do this gamble in. The problem with 3NT is if they double, you will not be able to risk leaving it in... so I reluctantly choose pass. IF I am in despirate need a board, I bid 3NT and stick out a double.

[whereagles]

1.

[hv=d=n&v=n&s=saqjxh8xxx

♦   ♣ t97xx 1♦-p-1♥-p

2♥-p-p-2♠

p-p-?

 

2.

dealer: south vul: e/w scoring: imp

♠ at8x ♥ [space]dqj9xxcajx]133|100|Scoring: IMP Uncontested auction: 1[di]-1[he] 1[sp]-2[cl]* 2[di]*-2[sp][/hv] 2[cl] was XYZ, so partner has shown an invite in spades. 3. [hv=d=n&v=n&s=saqjxh8xxx ♦ [space] ♣ t97xx

1♦-p-1♥-p 2♥-p-p-2♠ p-p-?

 

2.

dealer: south vul: e/w scoring: imp

♠ at8x ♥ [space]dqj9xxcajx]133|100|Scoring: IMP Uncontested auction: 1[di]-1[he] 1[sp]-2[cl]* 2[di]*-2[sp][/hv] 4.[hv=d=n&v=n&s=saqjxh8xxx ♦ [space] ♣ t97xx

1♦-p-1♥-p 2♥-p-p-2♠ p-p-?

 

2.

dealer: south vul: e/w scoring: imp

♠ at8x ♥ [space]dqj9xxcajx]133|100|Scoring: IMP Uncontested auction: 1[di]-1[he] 1[sp]-2[cl]* 2[di]*-2[sp][/hv] 5. [hv=d=n&v=n&s=saqjxh8xxx ♦ [space] ♣ t97xx

1♦-p-1♥-p 2♥-p-p-2♠ p-p-?

 

2.

dealer: south vul: e/w scoring: imp

♠ at8x ♥ [space]dqj9xxcajx]133|100|Scoring: IMP Uncontested auction: 1[di]-1[he] 1[sp]-2[cl]* 2[di]*-2[sp][/hv] 6. [hv=d=n&v=n&s=saqjxh8xxx ♦ [space] ♣ t97xx

1♦-p-1♥-p 2♥-p-p-2♠ p-p-?

 

2.

dealer: south vul: e/w scoring: imp

♠ at8x ♥  dqj9xxcajx]133|100|Scoring: IMP Uncontested auction: 1♦-1♥ 1♠-2♣* 2♦*-2♠[/hv] 1. Pass. This is probably going down and I'm not sure 3♥ makes.   2. I take it the card missing isn't a heart. In that case, 4♠.   3. Dbl. Could be wrong, but I take the chance.   4. There's a chance game makes if pard's bid is sane. I could fish for heart wastage if   1♦ 3♦ 3♠ 3NT 4♦   were non-forcing. But if it's not, I'll just take a flier at 5♦. Of course, if pard overbids often, I'd just pass 3♦.   5. The plan is to cash 9 tricks when dummy comes down. Just bid 3NT. Of course, dummy might come down with xx/xxx of diamonds, but there's no way to find out about that without messing up the bidding.. (there's a way to find out about the diamond stop, but I don't think I'm playing that... lol).   6. Dbl. We should have a fit somewhere, and it could be hearts. Pard has close to zero, of course, but game can still make!

[Gerben42]

1. Pass, I'm happy with opps choice of contract.

 

2. I'll bid game here. I'm confused by "we play XYZ here so...". I don't play this convention so tell me how is this different from a 3♠ bid by partner instead of 2♣?

 

3. I Double. If partner has opened light he should have pulled the XX right away. Note that the original posted does not play these 2/3 doubles :)

 

4. Depends on how inverted 3♦ really is. Does it show "junk" or does it show a mixed raise? If the first pass, if the second: 3♠

 

5. I bid 3NT and expect a major suit lead. If partner does not stop ♦ and they lead one, 5♣ would be down as well.

 

6. Double then 3NT. Hopefully 3♦ was based on shape. Did you ask if that was possible?

[Blofeld]

1. Double. This hand screams defence. Perhaps it's over-aggressive of me. I think this is fairly close between double and pass.

 

2. I appear to have 12 cards.

 

3. Double.

 

4. Pass

 

5. I'll try 3♠.

 

6. Double again.

[cherdano]

About the inverted raises: The only other raise would be 2m, showing 10+ with this partner, so you should expect 6-9. Partner may shade this a little with good shape, though.

 

About the XYZ sequence: 2♣ is the only way to invite, partner definitely has 4 spades, and the only other invite would be 2♣ then 3♠. This would show a stronger invite, but tends to be used rarely.

 

Arend

[hatchett]

1. An easy pass.

2. My judgement is flawed with only 12 cards.

3. Depends on my agreements here. If I expect partner to pull with a singleton club then I would double and lead a club. I expect him to have at least a sound opener

4. I would be inclined to pass it's only a nv game, if i move 3s spades obvious.

5. Start with 3S. It's fairly hard to construct hands where 3NT is making and 5C isn't. There are many more hands where 5C is right and 3NT isn't. He needs something like a double diamond stop and a club loser before the suit runs for 3NT to be right. 6C might occasionally be on and biddable

6. Double again. I might make game opposite the almost nothing partner is likely to have.

[Codo]

1. I would double at mps, but not at imps, so I pass.

 

2. I make a game try. If you bid ss Trialbds 3 Heart, or Help suit 3 Diamond.

 

3. I hate the XX. I have no interest to double them in any suit. so I had choose a 1 NT bid. Okay, I did not. Now, I try a pass, I cannot X for pen. But I like BEns Idea of 2/3 doubles.

 

4. I need just Qxx, xxxx,Kxxxx,x to make 5 Diamond. But I will fail opp. xx,xxx,AKxxx,xxx.

I pass.

5. My plan is to bid and make 5 Club.

 

6. I will go quietly and pass. They should fail in 3 ♠, but my pd will run from my double and if he won`t I prefer +100 or -140 to +200 or -730....

[mikeh]

1. Pass: wtp? They have probably made a mistake, but double is primarily takeout

 

2. 3♣ game-try. I don't like making gametries, but this hand warrants it. After my sequence, partner will downgrade ♥ strength and upgrade everything else: which suits me fine

 

3. Pass: forcing. Perhaps I should double, but I don't like my lack of spots.

 

4. Pass: game is a long way away

 

5. 3N: if we played that over 3♥, partner's 3♠ showed a ♦ stopper and 3N showed a ♠ stopper (or vice versa) I still wouldn't bid it.. too revealing. This may well fail, but, if so, then 5♣ will probably be unmakeable.

 

6. Pass: vul opps do not psyche: if he has, he's got me. If he hasn't, then partner has one of the weakest hands on record. Yet he will bid if I double: for sure he will bid if he has a 5+ suit, and I think we will do better on defence than on offense. Great example of why one has to listen to the auction rather than merely count points: this great hand has become an easy pass.

[jdonn]

1) Pass, there is too little to gain at imps when they aren't vul, they really need to go down 3 for it to have been worth the risk. Plus partner may make a bad heart lead.

 

2) 3♣. I consider 4♠ an error actually, it's completely unilateral on a 12 count with a void in partner's suit. Not that I love this convention, but it has saved you a whole level of bidding here that people are wasting. You have no clue how high you belong and plenty of room to find out, why take a wild stab? Let partner know that you want honors outside of hearts and then he can decide.

 

3) Double. I have the most I can have with four cards in their suit, what does partner want from life? If he has a stiff he is supposed to pull.

 

4) Pass. Is this really a problem?

 

5) 3NT, why tell them what I don't want led? Besides diamonds is where partner's most expected length is, and they are more likely to lead a major on this auction.

 

6) Double. I wouldn't be surprised if pass worked better but I just have too much. Maybe they will even bid one more, and then I can double and mean it. Why should I trust them anyway, wouldn't 3♦ be a really safe psych with 5 trumps and no highcards?

[joshs]

Sorry for stealing the title, Frances, but I can't remember any system problems over the 96 boards last weekend either, just judgement problems.

 

1.

[hv=d=n&v=n&s=saqjxh8xxxdct97xx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

1♦-P-1♥-P

2♥-P-P-2♠

P-P-?[/hv]

 

2.

[hv=d=n&v=n&s=saqjxh8xxxdct97xx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

1♦-P-1♥-P

2♥-P-P-2♠

P-P-?[/hv]

2♣ was XYZ, so partner has shown an invite in spades.

 

(Edit: 4th club was missing.)

 

3.

[hv=d=n&v=n&s=saqjxh8xxxdct97xx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

1♦-P-1♥-P

2♥-P-P-2♠

P-P-?[/hv]

 

4.[hv=d=n&v=n&s=saqjxh8xxxdct97xx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

1♦-P-1♥-P

2♥-P-P-2♠

P-P-?[/hv]

 

5. [hv=d=n&v=n&s=saqjxh8xxxdct97xx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

1♦-P-1♥-P

2♥-P-P-2♠

P-P-?[/hv]

 

(Edit: Vuln corrected.)

 

6.

[hv=d=n&v=n&s=saqjxh8xxxdct97xx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

1♦-P-1♥-P

2♥-P-P-2♠

P-P-?[/hv]

1. Pass. Yes I think they are going down, but I also think they have the majority of the high cards, and I don't expect to get rich here. I think 1/4 times they will make this contract.

 

2. You need to describe your convention a little bit better. Where I come from 2C then 2S, 3S direct and 2C then 3S are all invites of different strengths. This sequence (2C then 2S) is a 2.5 spade bid. I don't claim that this is necessarily the best treatment, but it is a somewhat common one, but there are other treatments also (for instance 3S direct might be slammish with a good suit). If this is a mild game try I will just pattern out with 3C and think I am being hyper-agressive.

 

3. Double. Partner can pull with a stiff and an offensive hand.

 

4. Pass, not even close.

 

5. 3N. Live a little. I have been down before.

 

6. I guess I will x again, but honestly I think pass is the winning bid.... If I new both opps were honest citizens I would probably pass.

[inquiry]

If I new both opps were honest citizens I would probably pass.

Playing against honest citizens makes the game much easier doesn't it. Does that tell us something?

[Fluffy]

1. Pass, trump is bad, this hand asks for defence.

 

2. 3♣, never decide when you can describe.

 

3. Double.

 

4. Pass

 

5. 3NT what I think I can make :)

 

6. Double and double.

[luis]

Hi Cherdano!

Thanks for the nice problems!

 

1: Easy pass.

2: 4s, I like the shapish hand to play 4♠

3: Dbl, XX is a debatable call but once you XX you have to X 2♣

4: Pass, I'm NV and 3♦ will make.

5: 3NT lead please.

6: 3NT

 

Luis

[mike777]

Hi Cherdano!

Thanks for the nice problems!

 

1: Easy pass.

2: 4s, I like the shapish hand to play 4♠

3: Dbl, XX is a debatable call but once you XX you have to X 2♣

4: Pass, I'm NV and 3♦ will make.

5: 3NT lead please.

6: 3NT

 

Luis

Ditto on bids and side comments, thanks!

[HeartA]

1. Pass, trump is bad, this hand asks for defence.

 

2. 3♣, never decide when you can describe.

 

3. Double.

 

4. Pass

 

5. 3NT what I think I can make :)

 

6. Double and double.

I was going to write my answers and found identical ones from Fluffy.

[cherdano]

Since the answers seemed to have converged already, I will start telling what happened:

1.

Dealer: North Vul: None Scoring: IMP

♠ AQJx ♥ 8xxx ♦ [space] ♣ T97xx

1♦-P-1♥-P 2♥-P-P-2♠ P-P-?

I passed and it was down 2 despite misdefense by us, as they were in a 4-2 fit. Double seemed greedy to me but two players I asked said they would do so (no, not result merchants).

 

Of course, they have a 9-card fit in diamonds, but I doubt our opponents would have found it (yes, they should).

[cherdano]

2.

Dealer: South Vul: E/W Scoring: IMP

♠ AT8x ♥ [space] ♦ QJ9xx ♣ AJxx

Uncontested auction: 1♦-1♥ 1♠-2♣* 2♦*-2♠

2♣ was XYZ, so partner has shown an invite in spades.

As usual, I overbid with 4♠, of course 3♣ is waaay better.

 

Partner's hand was a reasonable minimum for this sequence:

9xxx AKxx KTx xx. On a diamond lead ducked I had to hope for misdefense, but they found the club shift in time.

[whereagles]

As usual, I overbid with 4♠, of course 3♣ is waaay better.

 

Partner's hand was a reasonable minimum for this sequence:

9xxx AKxx KTx xx. On a diamond lead ducked I had to hope for misdefense, but they found the club shift in time.

I dunno.. this isn't a question of high cards, but rather where they sit. Move a heart honor to diamonds or clubs and it's a lay-down.

[pclayton]

Good set Arend. Sorry I'm late.

 

1. Pass. Looks like the best chance for a plus. Furthermore, pard didn't take the push with the (assumed) stiff spade, so there's a good chance hearts are 4-3.

 

2. I'll pattern out with 3♣. Pard know whether or not we have heart duplication.

 

3. Double - yum! Expect at least 300 with a trump lead.

 

4 and 5. These are unsolvable problems unless you play a bandaid called Grant's Hack. Better yet, we are adding 1 minor - 2♠ as a mixed raise so that we have 4 minor suit raises. 1 minor - 3 minor - REALLY bad.

 

6. Pass. 3N is nuts. Double is hoping pard has some skewed shape, instead of a more likely 2443.

[jdonn]

I dunno.. this isn't a question of high cards, but rather where they sit. Move a heart honor to diamonds or clubs and it's a lay-down.

Isn't that EXACTLY why 3♣ is correct, so partner can appreciate where you want his highcards?

[han]

1. Pass. I think double is automatic at MPs, but the gain vs profit seems to small at IMPs. Bidding is not an option of course.

 

2. 3C, natural. I'm giving partner one chance to sign off with many wasted values in hearts.

 

3. Double. I assume that partner would have bid with a minimal hand that is not willing to defend. Doubling 2C is relatively safe.

 

4. Pass seems so obvious that I suspect we make 5D. Partner will need a maximum and the perfect cards.

 

5. 3NT, any hand with Kxxxx of clubs gives us a chance.

 

6. Double is take-out. Partner will surely pull, and I don't expect to make game in a suit. So pass is clearly better than double. 3NT is tempting, it might make opposite the right 0-count. Also, both opponents much have minimal hands, so it seems unlikely that they will find the double (whether it is right). But my wimpish side is showing up again: I pass and expect to go plus.

[cherdano]

3.

[hv=d=e&v=n&s=sqxhktxdqt8xca754]133|100|Scoring: IMP

P-P-P-1♠

X-XX-P-P

2♣-?[/hv]

The full hand:

[hv=v=n&n=sakt87hj54dj63cq2&w=sj63hat8d972ck986&e=s954hq963dak8cjt3&s=sq2hk72dqt54ca754]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

I passed, since I didnt like to double with the bad spots. We were in murky waters in the followup. Partner bid 2♠, I raised to 3♠, not a desirable contract to play. (I suppose 2N by me is better though.)

 

Any thoughts on the followups after pass?

 

Of course, after double, opponents would have wiggled there way to 2H, which is down 2 double dummy, but in practice probably down one after a trump lead.

[han]

I think the pass is not good Arend, even though mikeh is on your side. I can think of three reasons why you should double:

 

1) You redoubled and they bid one of your 4-card suits. If you don't double now, then when are you?

 

2) 2CX is not game, which makes doubling much more attractive. Also, there is no reason to think that they have found a fit, and you have the balance of strength.

 

3) There is a good chance that partner will be (somewhat) stuck when you. You certainly know that partner won't be able to double!

 

 

Partner's rebid of 2S doesn't even show 5 good spades, it may be on Jxxxx Axx AKx xx. This is not the time to raise on a doubleton. Passing 2S is possible, partner can jump to 3S with extras and a 6-card suit, and cuebid with extras and no good alternative.

[han]

I do hope you beat this east to a jelly, making take-out doubles like that.