MickyB Posted March 27, 2006 Report Share Posted March 27, 2006 Another hand from the White House International - this time I was filling in for Scotland, because they were having a lot of problems with illness. You are playing against the England U20s, one of the weaker teams. [hv=d=w&v=n&s=st92haj72dk98ck72]133|100|Scoring: IMPThe opponents bid -P:1♠2♣:2N3N 1♠ showed 5 cards, 2♣ didn't.What's your lead? How close is it?[/hv] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted March 27, 2006 Report Share Posted March 27, 2006 Sorry, I lead 4th best from my longest without thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hatchett Posted March 27, 2006 Report Share Posted March 27, 2006 Things look fairly desperate with nothing in spades and suits breaking well. I would lead a ♥ hoping partner has a 5 carder, or the heart T and declarer KQ etc. Doesn't feel like a hand to be passive on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joker_gib Posted March 27, 2006 Report Share Posted March 27, 2006 Sorry, I lead 4th best from my longest without thought. I won't not think more than Arend here ! ♥2 (which is likely wrong given that's a problem :) ) Alain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted March 27, 2006 Report Share Posted March 27, 2006 Heart seems canonical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerben42 Posted March 27, 2006 Report Share Posted March 27, 2006 because they were having a lot of problems with illness Hardly surprising if the weather was average for Amsterdam in March. To the question: If you lead the ♥2 it seems that declarer wins and cashes his 9 tricks. Looks like partner isn't too rich but we may still beat it by making 4♦ and ♥A, so my lead is ♦K. May cost an overtrick but might beat the contract. Was that crazy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted March 27, 2006 Report Share Posted March 27, 2006 I thing you might go for a passive lead here. ♠T is most passive and every finesse declarer would take in that suit would win anyway. ♥2 is my second choice, and ♦9 my 3rd. Both red suits might work briliant, but since declarer and dummy don't seem to have a long suit you might want to keep calm and don't give away any tricks. ♠9 might even work better, but partner may screw up with Jxxx... :o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenrexford Posted March 27, 2006 Report Share Posted March 27, 2006 I lead the heart Jack as a surrounding play. I expect partner to have Kxx, dummy Qxx, and declarer 10xx, or something like this. Perhaps Qxx-Kxxx-10x? Why do I do this? I always make surrounding play leads when the question is a forum question (not real life) and a surrounding play on opening lead is plausible. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sigi_BC84 Posted March 27, 2006 Report Share Posted March 27, 2006 Why do I do this? I always make surrounding play leads when the question is a forum question (not real life) and a surrounding play on opening lead is plausible. It would certainly be funny to have a totally innocent hand discussed in the Expert forum and after collecting three pages of clever answers come forward with the solution which would be "lead 4th best of the unbid major, wtp?" OK, maybe not that funny... --Sigi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted March 27, 2006 Report Share Posted March 27, 2006 Hmm, as I said I didn't think much about it, but once I do Gerben's choice of a diamond has a lot going for it. However, if I led a diamond, I would lead low, as a stopper is more likely to be in declarer's hand than in dummy's (well depends a bit on their style). However, I don't think it is so clear we need to cash 5 tricks immediately, declarer may well need to knock out a black stopper in partner's hand. So I stick to ♥2. I don't understand Free's reasoning at all. xxx in RHO's 5-card suit, probably 5-2, screams attack, and ♣Kxx too. Arend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenrexford Posted March 27, 2006 Report Share Posted March 27, 2006 Actually, although I said this as a joke, I am liking the heart Jack lead more and more. Opener's maximum hearts for this auction is three. Responder's maximum is four. Hence, the location of the heart Queen, if that is all that the opponents hold, is 4:3 favorite on dummy. Partner is also marked with at least two hearts, and probably more. If he lacks values in hearts, 3NT will likely make, probably through throwin's or squeezes against me. Our best trick source is probably hearts, and the Jack lead caters to dummy having the Queen. If partner holds the Queen, the Jack lead probably loses nothing, but it might possibly gain an entry to partner's hand or some neat problem for Declarer. If partner holds the 10 and dummy holds Qx(x) or Kx(x), the Jack hurts no more than the deuce. So, it seems that the real concern is partner with the King. Again, the odds favor dummy holding the Queen. More precisely, Opener seems to have 2.67 hearts. Dummy, however, is expected to haveslightly more hearts, perhaps in the neighborhood of slightly less than 3.67. HCP's seem titled slightly in favor of dummy, as Opener can have an 11-count. Opener also is expected to have more points in spades than in another suit. Counter to all of this is if Opener will not bid 2NT without at least Qx in each red suit. This seems logical, but I reject that argument because I want to (1) make a surrounding play lead and (2) argue in favor of it notwithstanding any logical arguments against it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted March 27, 2006 Report Share Posted March 27, 2006 Sorry, I lead 4th best from my longest without thought. concise Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickyB Posted March 30, 2006 Author Report Share Posted March 30, 2006 [hv=d=s&v=e&n=sakj87hqt4dajtc84&w=s653hk65d752cjt93&e=st92haj72dk98ck72&s=sq4h983dq643caq65]399|300|Scoring: IMPP:1♠; 2♣:2N; 3NI led the 8♦, which was not a success.[/hv] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finch Posted March 30, 2006 Report Share Posted March 30, 2006 Magic! Just for once someone posts a hand on BBO where 4th highest of longest and strongest beats 3NT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted March 30, 2006 Report Share Posted March 30, 2006 As I mentioned, a passive lead does the trick without any risk here B) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luis Posted March 30, 2006 Report Share Posted March 30, 2006 Magic! Just for once someone posts a hand on BBO where 4th highest of longest and strongest beats 3NT. Nope, here only a diamond lets 3NT make anything else works fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalvan14 Posted March 31, 2006 Report Share Posted March 31, 2006 As I mentioned, a passive lead does the trick without any risk here B) Provided that you do not discard hearts on the spade run, and that you play the 2H when you win the KD. Almost worthwhile playing it at 1st trick, don't you agree? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pigpenz Posted March 31, 2006 Report Share Posted March 31, 2006 yes some are always looking for the magic lead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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