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Take out takeout doubles?


cherdano

Your bid:  

30 members have voted

  1. 1. Your bid:

    • pass
      15
    • 5 spades
      14
    • 5N
      0
    • 6[DI]
      1


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Brutal!

 

I'm pulling to 5 since I think I have the shape for the call. We also appear to have something of a double fit. I'm glad I'm a passed hand; hopefully pard will realize I don't have 6 or more spades since I didn't open a weak 2 (not a completely reliable inference ;) )

 

Passing is possible, but I'm not ready to take +100 / +300 when I think +650 OR more is available.

 

Its the big game of +1430 that I'm really after by pulling.

 

At least thats what I'll tell myself as I enter -100 on my scoresheet. :)

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5s

 

Using FTL and assuming p is 4414 with 12-14 whcp we should make 11 tricks.

13-2+0=11.

If partner is 4405 with 12-14 whcp or is 4414 with 15+ whcp we should have a play for 12 tricks.

If partner makes an auto assumption of 7 whcp in our hand hopefully they will be able to move on with the better hand. I guess partner will assume any finesses through my hand will work but through hers will fail?

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If double was takeout, it seems normal to bid 5. But is double takeout? I think standard is that it's just "values" and should only be removed with shape. If partner has a doubleton diamond, five spades is quite likely to be a disaster. In any case, suits are not breaking well on this hand, and there's no reason partner has to have four spades. I'll pass and take the plus score.
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I will give them the 4 imps or so that they get for my pass, if we can go 650 against their 500: and it is very difficult to construct hands on which they have more than 8 winners and we have 11. I will pay to a 9 or 10 card suit, and cater more to AKJxxxxx: a holding that would be more than we need for a white v red 5 opening. I would expect that dummy has no entry... and if it does, then we probably are in trouble if I bid. So I have some chance of 800 and little chance of less than 500. So passing gives up little when it is slightly wrong, and may win a little. Of course, passing gives up on slam, but that may be unbiddable anyway and it avoids a disastrous -100 either in 5 or if partner overbids (which he almost certainly won't).
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A question to the experts here:

can you provide some concrete examples of the hands that pard might have for his double ?

 

E.g. what is the minimum high card content requirement for his double, assuming he has shortness in the opened suit ?

 

This criterion would of course also impact some hands that, despite the ideal shape, would be too weak too double because the hcp content does not match the abovementioned criterion.

 

No state of the match issue, let's just consider it's just a normal board in a normal match.

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If p has the typical 4414 there're 18 total trumps. Q may be a negative correction factor but let's allow for 19 total tricks due to LHO's great length. So it's quite likely that neither 5 nor 5 will make, and "pass" will get me 500 vs 650 which I'm not woried about at IMPs.

 

The 5-level belongs to the opponents.

 

Btw, did opps play Namyats in 3rd seat? In that case, 5 in this position is just a text-book 3-opening. Nothing to be scared about.

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If p has the typical 4414 there're 18 total trumps. Q may be a negative correction factor but let's allow for 19 total tricks due to LHO's great length. So it's quite likely that neither 5 nor 5 will make, and "pass" will get me 500 vs 650 which I'm not woried about at IMPs.

 

The 5-level belongs to the opponents.

 

Btw, did opps play Namyats in 3rd seat? In that case, 5 in this position is just a text-book 3-opening. Nothing to be scared about.

You also need to make a slight adjustments in your total tricks, since you have Qxx which are lost in defense tnx to the Dbl.

 

Put me down for 5, with 6 as close second...

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You also need to make a slight adjustments in your total tricks, since you have Qxx which are lost in defense tnx to the Dbl.

If one is really to use the LOTT, then, according to Cohen (and commonsense) Qxx in opp suit should be a NEGATIVE adjustment (EVEN IF IT DISCLOSES THE TRUMP POSITION), lowering the number of total tricks available, and making it more appealing to defend than to bid, in borderline situations.

 

I have not enough experience to evaluate whether this is a "borderline situation" or not, but if one is to use the LOTT, here it would tell us to sit for the double, regqardles of any adjustments...

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I think this is close between pass and 5. Driving slam is a big overbid. If slam is making partner will bid it over 5S since a 5 level pull should normally have a reasonable expectation of making At IMPs I would lean towards a pass, expecting 500 most of the time 5S is making, and 5S to be off maybe 1/3 of the time.
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"If double was takeout, it seems normal to bid 5♠. But is double takeout? I think standard is that it's just "values" and should only be removed with shape. If partner has a doubleton diamond, five spades is quite likely to be a disaster. In any case, suits are not breaking well on this hand, and there's no reason partner has to have four spades. I'll pass and take the plus score."

 

Agree.

 

Peter

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B) Pass. It does look fairly close, but consider the following analysis:

 

a. By passing I am risking a probable 3-4 IMP loss if 5 makes versus a probable 10+ IMP gain if 5 goes down.

b. LHO figures to have either 8 or 9 diamonds or 7 diamonds and 4 or 5 clubs. Our defense of 5 doubled is likely to pick him clean (possibly with a club ruff or two), so +500 seems likely imo.

c. The play at 5 is sure to run into bad breaking suits. I could end up with two slow heart losers, or handling charges from 0-5 spades to name the two most likely horrors.

d. Finally, :o :o :o the way I am used to playing, pard does not guarantee a pattern hand, but rather enough defensive tricks to beat 5. ;) :ph34r: :ph34r: I am not terribly worried that pard would table a doubleton spade, but imo it will happen often enough to affect my decision here.

 

It is bidding after a preempt which is, of course, always a crapshoot. I have no doubt that once in a while we will have +1430 available versus only +300 defending.

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A question to the experts here:

can you provide some concrete examples of the hands that pard might have for his double ?

 

The problem with doing this is that it is easy to construct hands to support either pass or 5. Unless one is GIB (and can very quickly simulate several thousand hands), a better idea might be to compare poorly fitting but still doubling hands with well fitting doubling hands and then assess the upside/downside.

 

Would we double a 3rd seat 5 with Axx AQxx xx KQxxx?

 

If so, then bidding will likely be a disaster.

 

Certainly partner could have AQxx AQJx x Axxx and we will likely regret passing: but will he bid 6 then, over your 5? If he does on that, will he do it on AQxx AQJx x KQJx?

 

Imagine Axxx Axxx x Axxx: throw in a Q in one of the suits: certainly we'd all double with Axxx Axxx x AQJxx

 

5 probably makes, but 5 is going to do pretty badly as well.. so there is not much one way or the other.

 

To me, the risk of 5 being the wrong spot is too great on this hand... with the slight extra chance that when 5 works, we may overreach to 6

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I would also pass partner's double.

 

I am starting to pass in more of these auctions than I used to.

 

The difficulty is that while we'd like to say that partner's double is "take-out", it doesn't show a classical take-out double hand: all we can say is that it has high cards that aren't in diamonds, and would expect 5D to be going down most of the time.

 

So a hand like this would double 5D:

 

Ax

AQxx

x

Axxxxx

 

Partner should merely be happy that if we pull to a 6-card suit then we will have play for the contract.

 

Obviously as mikeh says it's easy to construct hands where 6 (or 7) of a major is cold.

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