slam how should I get there and what % is it pls

[sceptic]

[hv=d=s&v=e&n=sqthjt6432dj3ca83&w=sak75hak5da762c95&e=sj6432hq9dq9ckqj6&s=s98h87dkt854ct742]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

West North East South

 

 -     -     -     Pass

 1♦    2♥    2♠    Pass

 3♥    Pass  3NT   Pass

 4♠    Pass  Pass  Pass

 

 

I opened 1 diamond in an Indy

 

slam how should I get there and what % is it pls

 

also can I have comments on what the 3 heart bid should show as I alerted it as a Good Spade raise and I think I was wrong

[mr1303]

3H is just a general "do something sensible" bid. When you pull partner's 3NT to 4S you show that you had a strong spade raise, after which partner might do something more interesting.

 

Having said that, you need trumps 2-2 or a singleton Q and nothing else bad to happen, which is not exactly odds on. A club lead and diamond switch makes life tough as well.

 

All in all, I wouldn't lose any sleep about missing this one.

[P_Marlowe]

I would not have reached the slam.

Usually 3H is a stopper ask, unless 2S

was already game forcing, just bid 4S.

 

Responder will Pass, and thats it, sometimes

suits break 3-1, and sometimes responder

holds the ten of spades instead of the Jack.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

 

PS: Slam needs trumps 2-2 or the Single Queen

of spades, else you loose a trump and the ace of club.

[JohnnyH7]

Off the top of my head trumps for no losers is about 52 %. Subtract half a percent or so for a potential club ruff, and it's definitely a marginal slam. No big deal to miss it.

[Wackojack]

In isolation the odds of slam making are fractionally better than 50%. The heart overcall fractionally increases the likelihood of a singleton spade, thus reducing the odds to 50% as near as makes no difference.

 

If you know your opponents, and if you are leading near the end of a match, do what you think they would do and if you are behind do the opposite of what you think they would do.