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Lead logic problem


Finch

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[hv=d=e&v=n&s=skq10xhq10xxxdcj10xx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

3 P 5 x

5 x P P

6 P P x

all pass[/hv]

 

This is the first hand of the last 8-board set of a KO, opponents are 42 imps down (which may explain some of what went on in both rooms). Your pass over 6D was clearly forcing. Without a large lead you probably would have bid 6H, by the way, but it seemed safer to take what money there was.

 

I'm not asking what you lead: the winning lead is a club.

The really difficult questions are:

 

- why is a club right?

- if you lead a major you concede 1090 and gain 7 imps. What on earth is going on in the other room, given that they are trying to swing but haven't been absurd?

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I'm not going to claim I know the answer as I do not.

 

I just want to start in on some of the reasoning along the way to the right answer.

 

If I am to trust the opponents bidding at all 5 was a lead director in case we bid on over 6. 5 showed a willingness to go to 6, so the 3 hand is somehow tainted. Since the opponents are swinging, this should not be too much of a surprise. The lead director should be either an A or void. Either way, it seems fruitless to lead a spade.

 

Since we don't have a trump we can rule that out. I'm still think about why we should lead a club versus a heart. I will think some more.

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All things being equal if partner does NOT have A it is more likely to cost compared to a lead in when he does NOT have A. This is why I lead a .

 

7 IMPs is 270 - 310 so the other room scores between 1360 and 1400.

 

My guess is that 6 wound up redoubled (1540 if making) and the opponents saved in 6xx for 1400.

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