Jump to content

Blind Lead


Echognome

Recommended Posts

[hv=d=w&v=n&s=sq9843hdkt743ct85]133|100|Scoring: IMP

2NT - 6

All Pass[/hv]

 

They say that those who think leads are blind must be deaf.

 

Well here was a lead I had to find last night and I certainly felt blind and deaf!

 

RHO is an international, but on the other hand, this is isn't such an important event.

 

At least your choices of suit are limited.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Jlall
A spade is an agressive lead as well, and has less of a risk of blowing a trick. On the other hand with a diamond lead we may cash the AK (stranger things have happened) or we may eliminate one of declarer's lines of play (diamond hook if he has a stiff). So I'll go with a diamond.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Diamond for the simple reason that I need less in partner's hand to set up a trick than I do in spades (queen instead of king). A passive club is out of the question. I don't go passive on this auction.

 

Roland

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I consider this lead problem to be neither blind nor deaf.

 

RHO's auction allows us to draw some inferences, albeit not as clearly as we might like. We can draw inferences from what he did not do: he did not transfer and then use some form of keycard, exclusion or regular, nor did he transfer and cue bid.

 

He should have 7+ and a hand based on playing strength, not especially rich in high cards (he did not even try to see if grand was possible and he had no interest in opener's degree of fit). Thus, given that dummy will afford some fillers for his side suits or pitches for losers, we can assume that we have a chance of beating this contract if we find the right lead (we have to assume that anyway, of course). More importantly, because he has a lot of winners, we will, more often than not, have to be aggressive on opening lead.

 

That need for aggression strongly suggests a lead, as everyone so far seems to conclude.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Boo. Everyone found the diamond lead. I thought it was the automatic lead given the auction and it turned out to be the right one. You cash partner's ace and your king and tuck the children into bed. Your teammates sensibly stopped in game. They were impressed we found the lead. Go figure, they needn't have been.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Diamond for the simple reason that I need less in partner's hand to set up a trick than I do in spades (queen instead of king).

Why is finding the Q more likely than finding the K with partner?

 

One reason I can think of is, if partner has enough points to have a King, then he can have the Q and any Jack instead, which makes the Q more likely than any K. (I don't think is very simple reasoning, maybe it is for most advanced players)

 

On this hand the above reasoning works fine, but I think I have seen authors state it (Q easier to find than K) without any supporting reason against game contracts etc where we can account for partner not holding any Jacks (we hold them!)

 

Are there any obvious reasons? (point count is not too convincing, what is 1 point here or there?)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...