Thin Game

[Echognome]

[hv=d=n&v=b&n=st86hat53dk7ck852&s=skqj2hq942d96caj4]133|200|Scoring: IMP

P - 1NT

2♣ - 2♥

3♥ - 4♥

All Pass[/hv]

 

You open a weak NT in 3rd and partner makes an aggressive invite to propel you into game.

 

The opening lead is the ♣T which goes small to the Q and your A. You are now in a surprisingly good contract. How do you play trumps?

[Finch]

The CQ on my right was almost certainly the wrong card to play. Makes me think that clubs are 5-1 (either way) or possibly RHO has Q976 and is hoping you will go wrong! Anyway, even though there is some hope of eventually discarding a diamond on the 4th round of clubs, I'd rather concentrate on the best line in the heart suit than try too hard to keep LHO off leading a diamond through.

 

The percentage line in the suit for 3 tricks is ace and low to the 9, which guards against the most 4-1 breaks. But, can we cope with 4-1 hearts anyway? Suppose RHO has KJxx. Ace of hearts, heart to the 9 and pitch. Well, yes we can if things lie fairly favourably in the other suits.

 

Let's look at the keep-LHO-off-lead approach. For it to be worthwhile, we need the DA on our right and the SA on our left. This is less than 25%, because LHO might well have a natural D lead without the ace. But let's look at alternative lines in the heart suit, and for simplicity stick to 3-2 breaks.

 

RHO can have:

i) xxx (1 case)

ii) Kxx (3 cases)

iii) Jxx (3 cases)

iv) KJx (3 cases)

v) xx (3 cases)

vi) Kx (3 cases)

vii) Jx (3 cases)

viii) KJ (1 case)

 

Ace and low to the 9 picks up 14 of these

Ace and low to the Q picks up 14 of these

Run the Queen, then low to the 10 picks up 16 of these.

 

Seems like another close contest to me, but I am veering towards Ace and another heart in case clubs are 5-1. I think I'd have to work out how exactly how likely I am to make with hearts 4-1 to decide.

[Codo]

I let the 9 of H run. I was not so deep in this had like frances, but I like tghe idea of letting rho win the tricks. And A and a low H is not so much better, that we must play the hand that way.

[hatchett]

The CQ on my right was almost certainly the wrong card to play. Makes me think that clubs are 5-1 (either way) or possibly RHO has Q976 and is hoping you will go wrong!

 

He can play ♣Q with Qx/Qxx knowing it can't cost as well. I don't think we can read much into ♣Q

 

Let's look at the keep-LHO-off-lead approach. For it to be worthwhile, we need the DA on our right and the SA on our left.

 

No good they can cross on spade to play a diamond through!

 

I think we have to assume that diamond Ace is onside since if RHO had ♦A, LHO has either ♥K or ♠A, so the hand is about either trying to avoid a club ruff and not losing more than one trump trick. The chance of one hand having stiff club and doubleton heart is small and given the ambiguity in the club suit, I will concentrate on losing only one heart trick.

 

I would think that the two plausible lines of (i) ♥A and low to the 9, and (ii) low to the ♥T are about the same and then run ♥Q are about the same.

 

With (i) I can pick up some 4-1 ♥, for instance when the hand with 4♥ has at least 3♠

[Finch]

Sorry, I meant both aces on our right if the keep-LHO-off-load approach is to work.

 

By the way, if you want to run the H9 on the first round, you are better starting with low to the 10. LHO might have a singleton honour.

[keylime]

The trump suit almost works out for an intrafinesse.

 

I think the key to this auction is LHO's pass of the weak NT. They either have a flat hand or an equivalent hand sitting behind declarer.

[Echognome]

I chose to run the ♥Q. I agree that low to the T is better in case there is precisely a stiff K on my left. Although slightly inferior to low to the T, my line picked up trumps for one loser when LHO had Jx and RHO Kxx.

 

If I understood suitplay correctly, it plays low to the ace and hooks the J on the way back. I'm just wondering if the lines are equivalent. That is to say the double finesse versus small to the Ace and single finesse on the way back.

[Finch]

Low to the ace and finesse against the Jack on the way back picks up more 4-1s.

[hatchett]

I chose to run the ♥Q. I agree that low to the T is better in case there is precisely a stiff K on my left. Although slightly inferior to low to the T, my line picked up trumps for one loser when LHO had Jx and RHO Kxx.

 

Low to the ten, and then run the Q picks up this holding as well. Run the Q loses to the stiff K and potentially stiff J on your left as well.

[Echognome]

I chose to run the ♥Q. I agree that low to the T is better in case there is precisely a stiff K on my left. Although slightly inferior to low to the T, my line picked up trumps for one loser when LHO had Jx and RHO Kxx.

 

Low to the ten, and then run the Q picks up this holding as well. Run the Q loses to the stiff K and potentially stiff J on your left as well.

Agree that running the Q is slightly inferior because it loses out to the stiff K. Doesn't it swallow up the stiff J though?

[jdulmage]

Play the 9 and let it ride through