joshs Posted March 6, 2006 Report Share Posted March 6, 2006 I wrote a series of articles on Hand Evaluation that were published in the Albuquerque bridge magazine over the last few years, and my friend Boye Brogeland translated them into Norwegian for Norway's Birdge Magazine. Here is article 1. If there is interest, I can post more articles. Hand Evaluation, part 1ByJosh Sher In this series, I want to discuss hand evaluation. We start this series with the question: what constitutes an opening hand? Today we discuss the Work count and the Bergen count and discuss the limitations of each. The traditional method for evaluating an opening hand is the 4321-point count (Work count) that you are all familiar with. This method works pretty well with balanced hands but has a number of shortcomings. 1. The Work point count undervalues the importance of shape A hand like Aqxxx KJxxx xx x is MUCH better than a balanced hand such as Aqxx KJxx xxx xx. Why is this? In short suits, only high cards are likely to take tricks, but in long suits the 4’th, 5’th and later cards might take tricks merely because all the other cards in that suit have already been played! Further, if one of your long suits is trumps than the opponents high cards in your short suits become worth less since you can trump them.As an example:North: Aqxxx KJxxx xx xSouth: Kxxx Ax xxx xxxx4S is a very good contract here on 17 HCP. In a later article, I will discuss how to bid these hands to game. 2. The Work point count does not reflect the importance of having honors in combination. In particular, unsupported Q’s and J’s are overvalued. Consider the following card combination: Kxx vs Qxx.Here you probably make only 1 trick unless one opponent has a singleton or doubleton ace, and you guess which opponent has it.Change the combination to: KQx vs xxxHere you have a 50% chance of scoring 2 tricks by leading twice toward the KQx. 3. The Work point count does not differentiate between honors in long suits and honors in short suits North: xxx xx Axx Akxxx (Hand A )South :QJxx AQ Kxxx QxxHere 3NT by south is quite good! On the likely heart lead 3NT makes if clubs are 3-2 (68%). And even if they don’t lead a heart, 3NT is still decent. But move North’s AK of clubs into the majors and game is quite poor:North: Akx xx Axx xxxxx (Hand B )South: QJxx AQ Kxxx QxxOn a heart lead, playing on clubs is no longer an option. The best chance to make 3NT is to play for 3-3 diamonds (36%). Even worse:North: Axx Kx Axx xxxxx (Hand C )South: QJxx AQ Kxxx QxxHere on heart leads it would require luck to even take 7 tricks! The point here is that hand A is better than hand B which is better than hand C. Hand A is worth an opening bid, hands B and C are not. The reason A is a better hand is that it has its strength concentrated in its long suit. This makes it easy to set up and run the long suit. Hand C, on the other hand, has values in a short suit that are more likely to be wasted. 4. The Work point count undervalues Aces and undervalues spot cards especially tens. With Aces you have fast tricks and sure entries that do not require setting up. You also have control of a suit, which makes it easier to hold up until one opponent is out of that suit. Further, holding aces makes it easier to endplay an opponent or squeeze an opponent since you can determine when they win their tricks. Tens are quite valuable when combined with other honors. Consider: AJx vs xxx.Here declarer will take 2 tricks when both the K and Q are onside, which is 25% of the time. Strengthen the suit by adding a ten: AJT vs xxx. Now declarer will take 2 tricks when either the K or the Q is onside, which is 75% of the time. This ten is worth a half a trick on average, the same value as an unsupported K! Having discussed the problems with the Work point count, I now want to briefly discuss the Bergen count. The Bergen count is a slight improvement on the Work count since it takes shape into account. The Bergen rule is: take HCP and add the length of your two longest suits. If the total is 20 or more open the hand. For instance: Aqxxx KJxxx xx x. Here we have 10 HCP. The Longest suit has length 5 and so does the second longest. The Bergen rule gets: 10+5+5=20. Thus its worth an opening bid. Change the hand to: Aqxx KJxx xxx xx and the Bergen count is:10+4+4=18. Not even close to an opening bid! While the Bergen rule solves problem 1 from before, it still does not solve the other 3 problems. For instance, Qxxxx Jxxxx Kx A is also worth 20 according to the Bergen count, but it’s a much worse hand than Aqxxx KJxxx xx x and should not be opened. Further, we saw the 3 examples before:xxx xx Axx Akxxx (hand A )Akx xx Axx xxxxx (hand B )Axx Kx Axx xxxxx (hand C )We saw before that hand A was better than hand B that was in turn better than hand C. But the Bergen rule says all 3 hands were worth 19 in the Bergen count. In the next article, I will discuss a modified point count method that is an improvement on both the Work and the Bergen count. I will argue that hands like AKQxxx xxx xxx x and xxx xxx Axx AKxxx are worth an opening bid, but a 13 HCP hand like KJxx QJ KQx Jxxx is not good enough to open! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joshs Posted March 22, 2006 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2006 Hand Evaluation, Part 2: In my last article I discussed 4 principles of hand evaluation: 1. The importance of shape. A shapely hand has more potential than a balanced hand.2. Honors in combination are much more valuable than isolated honors. In particular, isolated Q’s and J’s are not worth their point count.3. Ace’s and Tens are more valuable than their point counts.4. Honors in Long Suits are more valuable than honors in short suits. In this article I want to discuss modifications of the usual 4321 point count that helps reflect these 4 principles. Note that this point count is all about how to evaluate your hand before your partner says anything. We will discuss hand evaluation after your partner bids later in the series. The first modification I want to discuss is the value of Isolated Queens and Jacks. A holding such as Qxx is worth less than 2 points. I recommend subtracting 0.5 points for such a holding. But if you add any card (9 or higher) to these holdings then count them at full value. Thus Jxx is worth only 0.5, but JTx is worth more than 1, J9x is worth 1 and KJx is worth 4. Adjustment #1: Subtract 0.5 point for any Isolated J’s or for Isolated Q’s in 3 card or shorter suits. The second modification is that short suit honors should be discounted some. Adjustment #2: Subtract 0.5 for doubleton Q’s or J’s. Subtract 1 point for all singleton honors. Basically a holding like Jx or J should be counted as 0 points. If after “counting points” you are still not sure if you should open, then use the presence of these J’s as tiebreakers. A holding like AJ should be counted as 4.5 points. 4 for the A, 1 for the J, -0.5 since the J is in a doubleton. The third adjustment is the value of Tens. Tens are worth around 0.5 points when in 3 card or longer suits with other honors. Thus QTx should be counted as 2.5 points. But QT should merely count as 1.5 points (2 for Q, -0.5 for doubleton, but no adjustment for being isolated since the T is present, and no points for the T since it’s a doubleton). Adjustment #3: Count 0.5 for T’s in 3 card suits that also contain a J or higher. Finally the value of Ace’s. Adjustment #4: Subtract 0.5 for a hand with no Aces. Add 0.5 for each Ace over 1. Putting this all together:Atxxx Qxx Akx JxAtxxx =4 for the A, 0.5 for the T = 4.5Qxx = 1.5 for Q with no supporting cards = 1.5Akx= 7 as usual = 7Jx=0 points for isolated doubleton J’s = 0Adjustment for Aces = 0.5 for the second Ace = 0.5Total = 4.5+1.5+7+0+0.5= 13.5 Move the J to a useful location:Atxxx QJx Akx xxAnd we get 4.5+3+7+0+0.5(2’nd ace) =15 Now I want to discuss the importance of shape and of having strength in the long suits. Some people recommend adjustments for shortness; other people recommend adjustments for length (for instance the Bergen count). What I will propose is doing some of each. Definition: A Decent Suit is a suit with 2.5-5 Points. Adjustment #5: Add 0.5 point for each card over 4 for a Decent Suit. Example: QTxxx is a Decent Suit (2.5 points) so we add 0.5 points for the 5’th card to get a total of 3 points. Definition: A Strong Suit is a suit with 5.5+ points. Adjustment #6: Add 0.5 points for the 4’th card in a strong suit, and 1 point for each additional card. Example: KQJxxx is a Strong Suit (6 points) so we add 0.5 for the 4’th card, 1 for the 5’th and 1 for the 6’th to get a total of 8.5 points. Finally hands with singletons are better than hands without (so for instance 5431 shape is better than 5422 shape). Adjustment #7: Add 0.5 points for a singleton. Add 1 point for a void. In general, I recommend opening hands that have a count of at least 12 adjusted points. A partnership that decides to open very aggressively might decide on opening 11.5’s or even 11’s. A conservative partnership might decide to wait for 12.5’s or even 13’s. It important to know your partnerships opening bid standards. Now lets look at some example hands:Axxxx Kxxx Qxx KAxxxx= 4 for ace + 0.5 for decent 5 cards=4.5Kxxx= 3 for K =3Qxx= 1.5 for Q with no supporting honor =1.5K= 3 for K – 1 for singleton honor + 0.5 for a singleton = 2.5Total = 11.5I think this is not good enough for an opening bid. Lets keep the same shape and move the high cards around:Akxxx KQxx xxx xAkxxx = 4 for the ace, 3 for the K, 0.5 for the 4’th card, 1 for 5’th card = 8.5KQxx = 3 for the K, 2 for the Q (2 since with another honor) = 5Xxx = 0X= 0.5 for the singletonTotal= 14.0Notice that by rearranging the locations of the high cards the hand became 2.5 points stronger! Now it’s well above a minimum opening hand. If we add some tens the hand becomes even stronger:AKTxx KQTx xxx xAKTxx = 4 for Ace, 3 for K, 0.5 for T, 0.5 for 4’th card, 1 for 5’th card=9KQTx= 3 for K, 2 for Q, 0.5 for T, 0.5 for 4’th card = 6Xxx = 0X= 0.5 for the singletonTotal=15.5 Lets look at two distributional hands:Qxxxx Kx Jxxxx AVsAqxxx xx KJxxx xI claim that the first hand is not close to an opening bid, but the second is a minimum opening bid. Lets use the modified point count on both hands:Qxxxx = 2 for Q with 4+ card suit= 2.0Kx= 3 for K = 3.0Jxxxx = 0.5 for J with no side honor = 0.5A= 4 for ace –1 for singleton honor +0.5 for singleton = 3.5Total= 9.0 Aqxxx = 4 for A, 2 for Q, 0.5 for 4’th card, 1 for 5’th card = 7.5Xx = 0KJxxx = 3 for K, 1 for J, 0.5 for 5’th card = 4.5X = 0.5 for singletonTotal= 12.5This hand is worth an opening bid! Another hand:AKQxxx xxx xxx xAKQxxx=4 for A, 3 for K, 2 for Q, 0.5 for 4’th card, 1 for 5’th, 1 for 6’th = 11.5Xxx = 0Xxx = 0X =0.5 for the singleton = 0.5Total=12This 9 HCP hand is actually worth a minimum opening bid! Kxx QJxx KQx Jxx Kxx = 3QJxx = 3KQx = 5Jxx = 0.50 Aces penalty = -0.5Total = 11Not an opening hand. KJxx QJ KQx JxxxKJxx = 4QJ= 2 for Q – 0.5 since in doubleton + 1 for J – 0.5 since in doubleton = 2KQx=5Jxxx = 0.50 aces penalty=-0.5Total= 11This hand has 13 HCP but is not worth an opening bid! If we add some tens to this hand it becomes a minimum opening hand:KJTx QJ KQT JTxxKJTx= 4.5QJ=2KQT=5.5JTxx=1.50 aces penalty = -0.5Total=13.0 Xxx xx Axx AkxxxXxx=0Xx=0Axx=4Akxxx=4 for A, 3 for K, 0.5 for 4’th card, 1 for 5’th card=8.5+1/2 for a second ace.Total=13Worth an opening bid. Axx Kx Axx xxxxxAxx=4Kx=3.0Axx=4Xxxxx=0+1/2 for a second aceTotal=11.5Not an opening bid. xxx Kx Aqxxx AJxxxx = 0Kx =3 Aqxxx = 4 for A, 2 for Q, 0.5 for 4’th card, 1 for 5’th card=7.5AJx = 5+1/2 for a second ace.Total=16This hand is worth opening a strong NT! Axx xx KQJTx KTxAxx=4Xx=0KQJTx= 3 for K, 2 for Q, 1 for J, 0.5 for T, 0.5 for 4’th card, 1 for 5’th card=8.0KTx= 3 for K and 0.5 for T=3.5Total=15.5This 13 HCP hand is actually a 1NT opening if you play 15-17 NTs. Xxx AKJx KQJx xxXxx=0AKJx= 4 for A, 3 for K, 1 for J, 0.5 for 4’th card=8.5KQJx= 3 for K, 2 for Q, 1 for J, 0.5 for 4’th card=6.5Xx=0Total=15Again, this hand is worth a strong NT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted March 22, 2006 Report Share Posted March 22, 2006 Great topic....ok what is this hand worth and what is our rebid? KQ874.....Q62....A64.....Q6 1H=1S2C=? You may assume pard would open and rebid all 11 hcp hands in this auction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbleighton Posted March 22, 2006 Report Share Posted March 22, 2006 "Great topic....ok what is this hand worth and what is our rebid from last night? KQ874.....Q62....A64.....Q6 1H=1S2C=? You may assume pard would open and rebid all 11 hcp hands in this auction." The hand is worth 4 hearts. Peter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted March 23, 2006 Report Share Posted March 23, 2006 normally i would devalue the ♣Q, but not with partner bidding the suit.. so i agree with 4♥ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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