Poll: bid after 4H opening

[AceOfHeart]

At all vul imps in teams, west deals and open 4H. After 2 passes Its your turn to bid.

What do you bid here holding ♠87654 ♥2 ♦KJ ♣AkJ92 ?

 

The 4 hands on the next post.

[AceOfHeart]

[hv=n=sa32h108da10432c543&w=skqhaqj76543d87cq&e=sj109hk9dq965c10876&s=s87654h2dkjcakj92]399|300|[/hv]

[han]

I passed before seeing the whole hand. (it's nicer if you don't show it yet though)

 

I expect others (Luis?) to bid 4S.

[Guest Jlall]

I consider this a clear 4S bid. This example hand is a good reason why. Don't be scared :)

[luis]

4♠.

[mikeh]

I would bid 4♠: certainly that is the bid that occurred to me before I saw the whole hand: I agree with hannie in that I really think that the whole hand should NOT be shown early. It is impossible to be objective about one's answer when one knows the outcome: so the poll will not generate accurate assessments... if that is its purpose. Of course, I tend to be braver here than at the table, where I might talk myself out of the bid. Question: if you choose 4♠, do you run after P P double? (I say not)

[Guest Jlall]

Question: if you choose 4♠, do you run after P P double? (I say not)

That is a pure table feel and who your RHO is etc etc kind of thing that I don't think is possible to answer unless at the table.

[Sigi_BC84]

I'm interested in hearing some of the reasons you have for calling 4♠. Repeating your votes in the thread is not very valuable :-).

 

What is more likely: double game swing or -100/+100 swing? I have no idea, is there a good rule of thumb or something that comes close?

 

I've been told that it is rarely wrong to keep bidding at goulash boards esp. if holding spades.

 

--Sigi

[mike777]

I'm interested in hearing some of the reasons you have for calling 4♠. Repeating your votes in the thread is not very valuable :-).

 

What is more likely: double game swing or -100/+100 swing? I have no idea, is there a good rule of thumb or something that comes close?

 

I've been told that it is rarely wrong to keep bidding at goulash boards esp. if holding spades.

 

--Sigi

Assuming spades is our best fit then:

1) Larry Cohen/Bergen advocate bidding 4s very often over 4H. In fact they consider the opp opening 4H to be a transfer bid to 4s for us. :)

2) Take a look at FTL "fought the law" by Lawrence.

again assuming spades is our best fit then

13-(estimated combined 2 shortest suits)-(estimated adjusted combined working hcp).

13=total tricks

-3=estimated combined 2 shortest suits.

+1 or 0 or -1 on your estimated working hcp.

+1=22-24 whcp

0=19-21 whcp

-1=16-18 whcp.

etc.

 

Now you can do the same estimate for the opponents hands.

13=total tricks

-?=opponents estimated two shortest suits

-?=opponents estimated adjusted working hcp.

[Guest Jlall]

I don't have any actual data or simulations.

 

My feeling is that this hand is very offensive. Many hands opposite produce game from partner (if you hit good 4 card support and out, you will probably make a game). There isn't a bunch of defense. 4S has many ways to win.

 

Our game could make

Their game could make and ours is a good save

We push them to 5H erroneously

It's not a good save but they forget to X.

 

Sometimes the wins are very big. It will lose when you go minus when you could have gone plus, or go minus a LOT. Sometimes it will lose very big (-800 on a phantom).

 

My experience is that bidding with this kind of hand is a long term winner. There is a well known phrase "bid 4S over 4H.." it seems silly but it works quite well. Bergen and Cohen are the biggest advocates of this saying, they call it "principles of a lifetime" whenever this hand type comes up in MSC.

 

Another factor is that sometimes we will only beat them on a specific lead, or they will only beat us with a specific defense etc. Declarer's advantage on this kind of hand is bigger than usual.

[han]

Sigh, I admit, I'm a coward. I'll try to be braver in the future.

 

Do I get some credit for predicting Luis's vote, or was that too easy?

[Guest Jlall]

Sigh, I admit, I'm a coward. I'll try to be braver in the future.

 

Do I get some credit for predicting Luis's vote, or was that too easy?

That was way too easy :)

[han]

Darn, again no credit for me! :)

[MickyB]

Of course, I tend to be braver here than at the table, where I might talk myself out of the bid.

I tend to be more foolish at the table than here - I felt it was marginal when I saw the hand, so I'd undoubtedly have bid it at the table!

[AceOfHeart]

This is a twist however, these are not actually the 4 hands!

 

well the south and west hand are the same but the north and east hand are what i hoped to be :)

 

 

actual east holds ♠AJ1032 ♥108 ♦Q10965♣5

 

and north holds ♠9 ♥K9♦A432♣1087643

 

 

so the bidding procced 4♥ P P 4♠ P P X all pass

 

after which my p comment about that if i bid 4NT he would have bidded 5♣ and i should run after the dbl into 5♣!

My reply? : I never run holding a straight flush in spades!

 

and 4S only went down 3. With 4H going down 1 at the other table we lost 14 imps.

[han]

I don't think that any of the posters that responded here were influenced by the hands you provided. It is clear to everybody that 4S can be a double game swing but can also be a disaster, so I'm not sure what you were trying to achieve by posting these hands.

 

As the better players all seem to vote for 4S I believe that 4S is the right bid, and I told myself to be braver in the future.