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NEW - how to play it?


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[hv=d=e&v=b&w=s4hkj3daq964c8763&e=sahaq10652dj3caqj2]266|100|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

Over RKC we ended in 6 . No bid from opps.

 

How to play it, after spade lead?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Am I just "stupid" when I say - I think a good way could be either to draw one or two rounds of thrump and then play a small to the Jack?

 

This was winning way in this hand as split 4 -2 with K1082 after dummy.

 

split 2 - 2.

 

South had QJ109653 87 75 K4.

 

After 1 no bid ! - and maybe I bid wrong - but no agreements. I bid 4.

 

How would you play it?

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I think that is a double dummy line. It caters to north having 4 diamonds to the KT and south having the CK. Meanwhile it loses to more likely layouts like 4-2 diamonds with Kx or KTxx with south with the club king off, or 5 diamonds to the king with south, etc. Plus it's MP and may cost an overtrick.
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I like this line. The advantage is that you can first test the diamonds, and then take the club finesse if necessary. If you run J losing, you get a club return. Now you either have to give up on layouts with T falling and club king off-side, or on layouts with club king onside and T guarded.

 

Arend

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I kind of like the line. The alternative of running the J at T2 seems technically worse to me for 12 tricks, but I'll think about it more.

 

I'm not that concerned about an overtrick here. This is a great slam and I would need a lot of luck in both minors to make 13 here. I would say making 6 is at least an 80% board.

 

I would guess at other tables the opponents are more active with their 11 spades, which may or may not help other tables to get to 6.

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Why is this line better for 12 tricks? It caters to ONE SPECIFIC diamond holding (KTxx on right) PLUS the club king being off, and loses to the holdings i mentioned which are much more likely.
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Why is this line better for 12 tricks? It caters to ONE SPECIFIC diamond holding (KTxx on right) PLUS the club king being off, and loses to the holdings i mentioned which are much more likely.

Not really.

 

If the diamond finesse loses and a club comes back you have a nasty guess. Are diamonds 3-3? Or is the K on. I would venture to guess a good player will put a club on the table in a nanosecond just about every single time.

 

But as I said, I haven't fully digested the hand.

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You're right I overlooked that. So this line also loses when the CK is onside with a doubleton/singleton DK on right(not KT dub) in addition to the actual layout. Still not close I don't think.
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Justin, I think you are still overlooking something. Let's assume clubs are 3-2 for simplicity. Also let's assume hearts split 2-2. There are 3 lines:

1. Run J, hook if it loses to the king and a club comes back

2. Run J, win A if it loses to the king and a club comes back

3. Start with a diamond to the jack.

 

No. 1 has a success rate of 74% (either king on). No. 2 is a little better, it wins when either K is on, or T is at most tripleton (I guess 76% or so).

No. 3 almost always wins when K is with North (either you don't lose a diamond trick, or you have enough discards when diamonds are not 5-1). If K is with South, you can next test whether diamond ten falls, this already gives you about 75%. And when this fails, you still have the hope for K onside.

 

Unless I have overlooked s.th., No. 3 is the best, and it is not close. The point is it's the only line that allows you to test falling of T before you commit on the club hook.

 

(Yes I have analyzed it like an IMP problem. At MP it depends on the field-blah-blah.)

 

Arend

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Thanks, I know you are overlooking something.

 

Number 2 is A LOT better than number 1. You pick up any 4 card diamond suit that has the CK as well as any 3-3 diamonds, DK onside, or DT dropping doubleton. So you only don't pick up diamonds when it is KTxx(x) offside WITHOUT the CK, or K(x) with north WITH the club king. 2 and 3 are roughly equivalent but 3 gives up any chance of an overtrick. This one is a no-brainer.

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Thanks, I know you are overlooking something.

Heh, first to be clear, I make this detailed list not because I think you are dumb, but because I am dumb and need to do this to sort it out for me :lol:

Number 2 is A LOT better than number 1. You pick up any 4 card diamond suit that has the CK as well as any 3-3 diamonds, DK onside, or DT dropping doubleton.

Sorry, I still don't get it -- why do you pick up a 4-card diamond suit that has the K? I don't see a squeeze working.

This one is a no-brainer.

Maybe...but not for me...

 

(Of course, the line 2. above has non-technical advantages; if North has KTxx and Kxx, he may not find the club shift after winning the K.)

 

 

Arend

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At IMPs Low to the J is clearly the best line.

 

 

The switch is too probable.

 

 

 

In a tough field maybe you wont get a good score for 6h making. So maybe running the J is better.

 

 

But in a weakish field low to the J is a reasonnable anti-field "semi-safety play".

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ben

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