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Improving judgement


luis

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[hv=d=w&v=e&n=saqjt3h5dcakj9762&w=sk54hkjdjt98432c4&e=s872haqt876dakqc8&s=s96h9432d765cqt53]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

Take the four seats in this amazing hand, what would you do at your turn in each round?

The excercise is to see what the final contract would be according to you if you make your best bid at each turn based on your judgement.

 

You can also comment on what happend when I played the hand

 

2 - 3 - 3 - P

4 - 4 - 5 - 6

X - p - p - p

+1090

 

Luis

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OK I'll try again...

 

West: pass. This hand is not suited for a direct preempt.

North: 1C. No problem yet.

East: 1H. Still no problem

South: pass. At these colors it would be nice to do something, but 2C is misdescriptive and 3C with only 4 clubs and a balanced hand is just too much.

 

West: 2D. Gotta bid this 7 card suit at some point.

North: 4S. His hand rocks.

East: hmmmm. I'd probably bid 5D. With all values in the red suits and RHO obviously having a big black 2 suiter this has the makings of a double game swing. Beware hands like this.

South: 6C. As a save, not to make. It cant be very expensive.

 

West: pass.

North: pass.

east: pass. I believe given north's bidding any good player would pass here. You need black suit tricks to be Xing.

 

NS+920.

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Was about to post Justin's auction.

 

I'd like to think I'd find the 6 call. If I were dozing I might not.

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I suppose the auction could go:

 

W....N.....E.....S

P.....1.....1....P

2....3....4....5

5....?

 

6 from North's perspective looks like its on a finesse. I can even see a subsequent 6 call over 6. Tricky to judge certainly.

 

I don't mind Justin's 4 call instead of 3 either.

 

Par appears to be +980 NS in 6.

 

Ah, we can all dream. :P

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It's hard to say what I'd do at the table, having seen all four hands.

 

Nonetheless, I feel that sometimes it's best on these sorts of hands to sell out at a low level. Looking at the east cards, you have an awful spade holding. Any black cards north needs to find are finessable. There's every reason to think your opponents can make 5, or possibly even 6 or 6. Perhaps it is better to pass 4, and hope that opponents do not find their making slam?

 

Certainly I've had excellent success with this in lower auctions -- often if you conceal your huge fit for partner it can talk opponents out of bidding a light (but making) game on their own concealed double-fit. Of course, one has to be careful not to talk partner out of the par spot; this kind of action is usually most effective at unfavorable vulnerability, where the opponents almost always "save" and you don't want them to end up making, and where your side going down is unlikely to be a good result.

 

What will happen in Justin's auction if east passes 4? Probably south corrects to 5. Does north bid six? How does he know whether the K is onside, or even whether south has an entry?

Perhaps they play 5+1 for 420 and a wonderful east-west result. :P

 

Again, can't guarantee I'd find the pass of 4 at the table, but there are certainly good arguments for it.

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Here is my auction, EW within parentheses:

 

(p) - 1C - (1H) - pass

(2C*)-4S- (5D?)-6C?

(p) - p - (Dbl?)- all pass.

 

* = transfer to diamonds.

 

I think that the auction is clear up to 4S. 5D is not entirely clear to me, and neither is 6C.

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Well, I wouldn't open as west. I think that 2 is dreadful (or worse)

 

So as North I would open 1, and get a 1 overcall.

 

South has no reason to bid.

 

West now bids: I would choose 2 unless playing transfer advances: then 2 is in order.

 

North has a freak and the red suit bidding by the opps increases his chances of finding at least a tolerable fit in partner's hand.

 

I would bid 4: this must be a powerful 5=6 or better.

 

East will bid 5, as a 2-way action.

 

Now South can judge that NS has almost no defence to 5 and so should bid 6, again as a 2-way action.

 

Now West has a nightmare decision. His hand screams that the opps have hit a home run, but he is vulnerable.

 

I do believe that he can logically bid 6. The key is that he can expect that his king will remain safe: surely S does not hold the K and the bidding suggests that South will not be ruffing the second round of . Whether I would be brave enough to bid 6 at the table is a question I cannot and will not answer :P

 

Note that this hand is bad for transfer overcalls: 6 by East is much less attractive

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1N(routine psych)-2N(Minors or a big 2 suiter)-3H(I want LHO on lead, I think)-P

P(LHO is currently on lead)-4H(Spades and a minor)-P(what is partner up to?)-4S(maybe I should bid 4N?)-P(have they stopped yet?)-5C(Too good to stop now)-P(I have a suprise AKQ of diamonds, maybe one will actually cash)-6C(Well I guess I have a trick for you)-All Pass

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How about this auction?

 

2N(Bad suit pre-empt in a minor)-3S(A distributional hand with a long minor)-P(I have seen my partner's prempts before, but I am pretty sure he has diamonds since I believe my opponent)-4C(pass or correct)-P-4S(I also have spades)-P-5C(please lets play a minor)-All Pass

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