Raptor

[Sigi_BC84]

So, what's more frequent? Raptor or nat 1NT? :)

Suffering from acute simulationitis at the moment, I'm making a serious attempt to answer this question:

 

This time I'm assuming that first hand opens SAYC-style with 15-17 NT, again according to the Rule of 20 with 19+HCP hands excluded.

 

The Raptor point range is assumed to be 10-15 strictly, with no further contraints regarding suit quality or distribution of honours.

 

This is what I get:

 

(1x)-1NT*: 0.010394

Generated 1000000 hands

Time needed 3.238 sec

 

Quite interestingly, a Raptor overcall of that kind is quite exactly as common as a natural Notrump overcall: about 1 in 100 boards. This makes both conventions "moderately common" in my eyes :-).

 

If one adds additional contraints regarding suit quality, this number will be slightly lower, but since the choice of contraints would be somewhat arbitrary I've left it out (one could, for example, require at least 50% of the honours to be in the two long suits or something else along this line). Something similar applies to the natural overcall, where one would probably add stopper requirements (this is really tedious to specify, so make your own guesses about how that would influence the percentages).

 

Again, here is the Dealer file used to make the calculations (lengthy); you need the Dealer preprocessor for this one:

# 1 mio hands
generate 1000000

hw = hcp(west)
spw = spades(west)
hew = hearts(west)
diw = diamonds(west)
clw = clubs(west)

rule_20_opener = ( hw <= 19 and ( hw + spw + hew >= 20 or
       hw + spw + diw >= 20 or hw + spw + clw >= 20 or
       hw + hew + diw >= 20 or hw + hew + clw >= 20 or
       hw + diw + clw >= 20 ) )

balanced = shape(west, any 4333 + any 5332 + any 4432)
open_1nt = ( hw >= 15 and hw <= 17 and
        balanced )

open_one_suit = rule_20_opener and not open_1nt

open_one_spade = ( open_one_suit and
 shape{west, 5+xxx} and
 spw >= hew and spw >= diw and spw >= clw
)

open_one_heart = ( open_one_suit and
 shape{west, x5+xx} and
 hew > spw and hew >= diw and hew >= clw
)

open_one_diamond = ( open_one_suit and
 shape{west, 4-4-4+x:d>=c + 4432 + 5+M6+d(xx):d>s,d>h}
)

open_one_club = ( open_one_suit and
 shape{west, 4-4-xx:c>d + 4333 + 3433 + 5+M6+c(xx):c>s,c>h}
)

overcall_1nt = ( shape( north, any 4333 + any 5332 + any 4432 )
       and hcp(north) >= 15 and hcp(north) <= 18 and open_one_suit )

five_plus_minor = ( diamonds(north) > 4 or clubs(north) > 4 )
majors_length = ( spades(north) + hearts(north) )
four_major = ( spades(north) == 4 or hearts(north) == 4 )

raptor_range = ( hcp(north) > 9 and hcp(north) < 16 )

overcall_raptor = ( raptor_range and majors_length < 8 and (
       ( open_one_club and four_major and diamonds(north) > 4 ) or
       ( open_one_diamond and four_major and clubs(north) > 4 ) or
       ( open_one_heart and spades(north) == 4 and five_plus_minor ) or
       ( open_one_spade and hearts(north) == 4 and five_plus_minor ) ) )

action  average "(1x)-1NT*" overcall_raptor

[kenrexford]

This post has developed into one hysterical numbers contest. So, being always one for humorous anecdotes, I'll toss this in, perhaps in support of Raptor...

 

I used to play "R.U.N.T." with a former regular partner, a "convention" I invented. "R.U.N.T." stands for "Really Unusual No Trump" and, in its simplest form, is a weak three-suited takeout. I have no good assessment of its frequency, except that it was VERY common. I can also say that I remember scoring up a knockout to find out that we won by about 5 IMP's, having gained a total of 30 IMPs on two RUNT hands.

 

Our version of RUNT caused this colloquoy:

 

It was a swiss teams event, seven boards in the match. The room was quiet in play. At about hand #2:

 

"1C"

"1NT"

"Alert."

"What's that?"

"RUNT" (My partner had a liking for the dramatic.)

"What is RUNT"

"That stands for really unusual notrump. My partner has 5-10 HCP's with at least three of each of the other three suits, or 19-23 HCP's with any shap."

"How do you know which?"

"If he is weak, he will not bid again. If he is strong, he will."

"Okay..."

 

At about hand #5:

 

"One club."

"Double."

"Alert."

"OK, I'll bite. What's that?"

"Son of RUNT." (Again, the dramatic.)

"And, pray tell, what is this Son of RUNT?"

"Well, my partner could have 0-4 HCP's and at least three cards in each unbid suit. Or, he could have 11-18 HCP's, three-suited. Or, he could have 15-18 and balanced. Or, he could have 16-18 with any unbalanced hand. Finally, he might even have 24+ HCP's"

 

From across the room:

 

"Of course that's what he has, you idiot!!!"

 

The room erupted in laughter.

 

Incidentally, the "24+" meaning came up one time, with RHO not psyching an opening.