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7 imp loss


Winstonm

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Here is the critical suit that needs to be played for 4 tricks in a NT contract.

 

K4 opposite AJ983.

 

RHO opened 1H in third seat. LHO led a diamond indicating that RHO holds diamond length as well. Taking the position that LHO holds spade length, what is the best play?

 

This hand occurred in a team match and I led the Jack from hand - this turned out not so wonderful as RHO held Qx and LHO 10xxx. Clear cut error or bad luck?

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Let's call cashing KA line 1 and running the J line 2.

 

Anything works if the suit is 3-3.

 

If the suit is 4-2, then line 1 succeeds in 9/15 cases (at least one honor with East). Line 2 succeeds in 6+1/15 cases (QTxx with West or QT with East) plus half of 8/15 cases (East holds Tx) = 11/15

 

If the suit is 5-1, then we need to find East with a stiff honor. Line 1 always succeeds (1/3), line 2 only succeeds when East has the stiff T (1/6).

 

Nothing works if the suit is 6-0.

 

 

So... line 1 is probably slightly better than line 2.

 

It's interesting to note that running the 9 is inferior to running the J. It has the same odds when the suit is 4-2, but cannot win when it is 5-1, whereas the J wins when East has a stiff T.

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