Guest Jlall Posted January 10, 2006 Report Share Posted January 10, 2006 possible distributions when it goes 1N p 2C p 2D are: 233523442353 323532443253 3325333433433352 I did not include possible 6 card minors in this. So it seems like there are 2 shapes with 5 diamonds and only 1 with 2 diamonnds that are equally likely not given our hand. Given our hand the shape with 2 diamonds is more likely, however I think the simulation numbers may be off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david_c Posted January 10, 2006 Report Share Posted January 10, 2006 I agree with Richard's numbers. You have to take into account the fact that you have 4=4=4=1 shape, and this really does make a significant difference to the percentages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted January 10, 2006 Report Share Posted January 10, 2006 I don't understand those that bid 2♥ over 2♦. Yes, we may end up in a 4-2, but we also run the risk of choosing a 4-3 over a 5-4! Partner may be (23)53. Two comments about passing 2♦ First: Passing 2♦ leaves you in a 5-4 fit 13.6% of the time. However this also leaves you in a 4-2 fit 11.6% of the time. The decision to pass fails catastrophically nearly as often as it succeeds. Second: This is matchpoints. Nuff saidIs your calculation correct? I come to: 5-4 fit in 23,35%and 4-2 in 7,8% taking into account the 4m333, 44m32, 5m332 distributions Did you take the conditional probabilities into account? Please recall that the 2♣ bidder is known to have 4=4=4=1 shape ANDthe 1NT opener has denied a 4 card major when I set up the sim using dealer I set the following conditions shape(north, any 4432, any 5332, any 4333) andspades(north) <=3 andhearts(north) <=3 andshape(south, 4441) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted January 10, 2006 Report Share Posted January 10, 2006 simulations can always be surprising, the conditional probabilities seem to change things a LOT more than I would have guessed in this case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted January 10, 2006 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2006 My partner deviated from our system and opened 1NT with a 2-3-2-6, I think it was KQ-AJx-xx-QJT9xx. Normally he should open 3♣ showing 12-13(14)hcp and a singlesuiter ♣, but I understand why he didn't. I choose to bid 2♣ and pass anything I got back. We played in the 4-2 fit, and on a magical way partner went only -1, but it was still a poor score. Afterwards, we concluded that it's probably acceptable to open 1NT, but that he should pass my 2♣ bid! He didn't open 3♣ because it might be too high, now he gets the opportunity to play 2♣, and there's no game available for us in like 90% of the time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mghmaine Posted January 10, 2006 Report Share Posted January 10, 2006 4-card NT ranges very troublesome in a system. In fact, even 3-card ranges should be minimized to the extent possible in system design. However, in 4th seat they are perfectly playable in many systems. I agree with the original poster's follow-up response re: Drury (no need for it in the context of many systems). There are also several good reasons to include a 5-cd M in your opening NT. If you do not have a fit, you have disclosed less about your hand. If playing strong NT, you might stop in 1NT instead of 2NT when a strong hand with a 5-card M would open 1M and then raise 1NT to 2. There are other advantages, and I have found that they outweigh the disadvantages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted January 10, 2006 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2006 What's a 4-card NT range? And a 3-card NT range? Do you mean 4-point and 3-point range? B) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_U_Card Posted January 10, 2006 Report Share Posted January 10, 2006 What's a 4-card NT range? And a 3-card NT range? Do you mean 4-point and 3-point range? :P Newbie nerves.... B) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalvan14 Posted January 10, 2006 Report Share Posted January 10, 2006 I don't understand those that bid 2♥ over 2♦. Yes, we may end up in a 4-2, but we also run the risk of choosing a 4-3 over a 5-4! Partner may be (23)53. Two comments about passing 2♦ First: Passing 2♦ leaves you in a 5-4 fit 13.6% of the time. However this also leaves you in a 4-2 fit 11.6% of the time. The decision to pass fails catastrophically nearly as often as it succeeds. Second: This is matchpoints. Nuff said I did not run a simulation, but I was another of the (minority) 2♥ rebidders.At MP, obviously; at IMP, pass 2♦ (or maybe pass 1N too) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTodd13 Posted January 11, 2006 Report Share Posted January 11, 2006 Wow. I'm really in the minority but here is my whacky view. I will bid 2♣ and then raise any 2M to 4M. Oddly, I believe I will also pass a 2♦ response with this hand though as my hand only has game values in a major. Two undervalued aces and lots of ruffing potential tell me to just bid the game here. Todd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted January 11, 2006 Report Share Posted January 11, 2006 I don't consider the ace of clubs undervalued, I consider if you are counting it as an ace and a stiff and upgrading according that it is overvalued. If it was in a red suit I'd like my hand's potential much more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blofeld Posted January 11, 2006 Report Share Posted January 11, 2006 Afterwards, we concluded that it's probably acceptable to open 1NT, but that he should pass my 2♣ bid! He didn't open 3♣ because it might be too high, now he gets the opportunity to play 2♣, and there's no game available for us in like 90% of the time...I've done that before (opened 1NT (weak) in 3rd/4th and passed 2♣ with a 6 card suit), and had good results from it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTodd13 Posted January 11, 2006 Report Share Posted January 11, 2006 I don't consider the ace of clubs undervalued, I consider if you are counting it as an ace and a stiff and upgrading according that it is overvalued. If it was in a red suit I'd like my hand's potential much more. When I said undervalued aces, I meant that most people look at this hand and think 2 aces = 8 points. In a major suit trump game, I think the two aces are worth 9 and the singleton worth around 3. So, with 12 points opposite 13 I'm going to game. I still think the aces are worth 9 in NT but no value for the singleton and I devalue the whole hand due to a likely misfit and that is why I don't even invite in NT. On the odd occasion, we'll play a 4-2 diamond fit here but then the singleton club ace still has some extra value then. Todd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double ! Posted January 11, 2006 Report Share Posted January 11, 2006 You hold:[hv=d=e&v=n&s=satxxhxxxxdtxxxca]133|100|Scoring: MP[/hv] 1st thing: 4HCP 1N openings are too wide ranging. play 13-15 or 14-16, but not 13-16. a simple request: at matchpoints: Don't knock it 'till you've tried it. Yes, it takes some getting used to and, yes, you might miss an occasional close game (that then goed down because of bad splits or card location.) and 13-16 NT is a lot of fun. DHL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted January 11, 2006 Report Share Posted January 11, 2006 You hold:[hv=d=e&v=n&s=satxxhxxxxdtxxxca]133|100|Scoring: MP[/hv] 1st thing: 4HCP 1N openings are too wide ranging. play 13-15 or 14-16, but not 13-16. a simple request: at matchpoints: Don't knock it 'till you've tried it. Yes, it takes some getting used to and, yes, you might miss an occasional close game (that then goed down because of bad splits or card location.) and 13-16 NT is a lot of fun. DHL I guess 15+ to 18 meets this 4 pt range standard? :PBut no one mentioned it :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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