Another doubtful situation...

[Free]

You hold:

[hv=d=e&v=n&s=satxxhxxxxdtxxxca]133|100|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

The bidding starts with 3 passes, partner doubts before bidding 1NT showing a balanced 13-16HCP hand (any 5332 possible). Dunno why he thinks, because all hands are very specific in 4th seat. RHO passes, up to you:

pass - pass - pass - 1NT* (13-16)

pass - ???

 

You have following tools available:

pass (obviously)

2♣ (starts like Stayman, includes garbage stayman)

4 suit transfers (not much of use here imo)

 

What do you bid and why?

If you decide to start with 2♣, what do you plan to do after a 2♦ response? And what after a 2M response?

[Blofeld]

Gut reaction:

 

2♣, will pass 2♦ or bid 3M.

 

Obviously I ignore the hesitation.

[Guest Jlall]

2C then pass whatever. Have played in a 4-2 fit this way before, and will play in one again. I think this is a definite long term winner with this shape.

[Kalvan14]

I'd be sooo very tempted by a pass, hoping that LHO will take the bait :P

In reality, I'd bid 2♣, and pass any 2M. Over 2♦, I'll probably bid 2♥: I am not too excited by the idea of playing 2♦ in a possible 4-3 [4-2 ;) ?] fit.

[foo]

You hold:

[hv=d=e&v=n&s=satxxhxxxxdtxxxca]133|100|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

The bidding starts with 3 passes, partner doubts before bidding 1NT showing a balanced 13-16HCP hand (any 5332 possible). Dunno why he thinks, because all hands are very specific in 4th seat. RHO passes, up to you:

pass - pass - pass - 1N* (13-16)

pass - ???

 

You have following tools available:

pass (obviously)

2♣ (starts like Stayman, includes garbage stayman)

4 suit transfers (not much of use here imo)

 

What do you bid and why?

If you decide to start with 2♣, what do you plan to do after a 2♦ response? And what after a 2M response?

1st thing: 4HCP 1N openings are too wide ranging. play 13-15 or 14-16, but not 13-16.

 

2nd thing: If you aren't playing Drury in 4th seat, start.

No more need to open 5M332's 1N.

 

ITRW the shapes for a 1N opening tend to be

all 4333

all 4432

all 5m332

=2452, =2425, or =2245 w/o a rebiddable m suit nor strong enough to reverse.

That's 25 shapes (4+12+6+3)

having 5M332 (6 more shapes) increases the number of possible shapes beyond reasonable.

 

Reason for both pieces of advice? To narrow down the number of hands Responder has to take into account when deciding what to do.

 

That being said, you have 21-24 HCP between you, your shape says that if Opener has a long suit it is most likely C's, and getting frisky with a Stiff A rarely works out well IME.

 

I'd pass. On a bad day we only make 1N or go down in 1N when 2M or 3m makes. On a good day 1N makes overtricks or is the only making contract.

[akhare]

Well, since we are likely to have problems only if pard has exactly 2 ♦s, bid 2♣ and hope to play in a 7 card ♦ fit.

 

If we end up in a 6 card♦ fit, hopefully pard has low clubs and the opps won't lead trump and we can scramble to 8 tricks:)...

 

Atul

[Free]

1st thing: 4HCP 1N openings are too wide ranging.  play 13-15 or 14-16, but not 13-16.

 

2nd thing: If you aren't playing Drury in 4th seat, start.

No more need to open 5M332's 1N.

 

ITRW the shapes for a 1N opening tend to be

all 4333

all 4432

all 5m332

=2452, =2425, or =2245 w/o a rebiddable m suit nor strong enough to reverse.

That's 25 shapes (4+12+6+3)

having 5M332 (6 more shapes) increases the number of possible shapes beyond reasonable.

 

Reason for both pieces of advice?  To narrow down the number of hands Responder has to take into account when deciding what to do. 

 

That being said, you have 21-24 HCP between you, your shape says that if Opener has a long suit it is most likely C's, and getting frisky with a Stiff A rarely works out well IME.

 

I'd pass.  On a bad day we only make 1N or go down in 1N when 2M or 3m makes.  On a good day 1N makes overtricks or is the only making contract.

It's always nice if people want to give us advise on our bidding system, however let me point some things out for you (most people here know I like non-natural systems, and I forgot to say 'welcome' to you ;) ):

- we play a strong ♣ system.

- we open quite light in 1&2 seat: our limited openings are 9-14HCP, balanced hands 11-14. We haven't had problems with this 4-point NT range.

- in 3&4 seat we open solid: limited openings are 12-16, balanced hands 13-16, so no need whatsoever for Drury. The limited openings are always 2-suited in canapé, so 5332's don't fit in.

- we alert almost every bid: openings, overcalls, passes when opps interfere,... We love artificial bids, and want to prove there's another way than 'natural with some conventions'. :D

 

So now you know what we play,

1st thing: we don't need to do much after a 3rd or 4th seat 1NT opener except passing, transfer+signoff, or invite. We count on our handevaluation skills rather than HCP, and this range is very playable. We even open 12HCP balanced sometimes, so it's more like a 4.5 point range.

 

2nd thing: we have other tools, and don't open light in 3&4 seat.

 

The 1NT opening only has 4333, 4432 and 5332 hands, unless we deviate (which is rare!)...

[P_Marlowe]

Pass.

 

If you bid 2C, over 2D bid 2H, asking

for partners 3 card mayor suit.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[joker_gib]

Pass.

 

If you bid 2C, over 2D bid 2H, asking

for partners 3 card mayor suit.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

Agree and I don't like 13-16 which is too wide (but I understand it in your system, Frederick ! ;) )

 

Alain

[Gerben42]

Partner was thinking because he had a doubleton ♠ and a minimum. Since you would have opened agressively in 2nd but didn't he was considering passing.

 

Anyway, I bid 2♣ which will turn out wrong since partner has 2335.

[pbleighton]

Pass. The hand is good enough to make pd odds-on to make 1NT. If it was weaker, I would bid 2C.

 

Peter

 

P.S. 4 point NT ranges are fine. I'm QUITE happy with 10-13.

[hrothgar]

Like the majority, I prefer a 2♣ response

 

I'll raise 2♠ to 3

I'll pass 2♥

I'll bid 2♥ over 2♦

 

This is matchpoints: I'm willing to sacrifice a 4-4 or even 5-4 Diamond fit to land to guaruntee a 4-3 major suit fit...

 

For what its worth, I ran a quick sim regarding expected Diamond length

 

North has a balanced hand with 2-3 Hearts and 2-3 Spades

South has 4=4=4=1 spade

 

2 Diamonds = 11.6%

3 Diamonds = 40.8%

4 Diamonds = 34%

5 Diamonds = 13.6%

 

Scrambling to 2♥ is clearly the best plan any time that partner has 2 or 3 Diamonds. The scramble will also pay out on some fraction of the hands where a 4-4 Diamond fit is available...

 

Odds look to be on my side

[000002]

depend on VULnerable

[Echognome]

I bid 2♣ and pass any rebid. I don't understand those that bid 2♥ over 2♦. Yes, we may end up in a 4-2, but we also run the risk of choosing a 4-3 over a 5-4! Partner may be (23)53. I disregard the hestitation in 4th. That's partner's problem not mine.

[hrothgar]

I don't understand those that bid 2♥ over 2♦. Yes, we may end up in a 4-2, but we also run the risk of choosing a 4-3 over a 5-4! Partner may be (23)53.

Two comments about passing 2♦

 

First: Passing 2♦ leaves you in a 5-4 fit 13.6% of the time. However this also leaves you in a 4-2 fit 11.6% of the time. The decision to pass fails catastrophically nearly as often as it succeeds.

 

Second: This is matchpoints. Nuff said

[Echognome]

Ah. I have to admit I missed the MP angle. Playing in a 4-3 is fair enough.

 

At MPs the decision whether to pass 1NT becomes much more interesting. However, I think the risk of missing a 4-4 major fit becomes too great and playing a 4-3 can be quite lucrative as well. I understand now the 2♥ bidders.

 

I hope they don't lead trumps. :wub:

[cherdano]

Would any of the passers raise 2M at IMPs? Let's say, vulnerable at IMPs and partner bids 2♠, I could not resist the temptation to bid 3♠. At MPs, I would pass.

[Al_U_Card]

Time for the percentage mavens to provide the chances of pard's having any 4+ card suit higher than clubs. I like 2C and pass the response, odds wise. The only down side is when pard would have opened 1 club and rebid 1NT over your 1H response. His values should compensate for this, the MP NT bonus notwithstanding.

[fifee]

I prefer pass after a 1NT opening.

 

The purpose of a weak NT opening (or weakish) is partly pre-emptive.

1. We know we don't have game, so penalizing the opponents is desirable :P

2. It is not clear what is the best strain for us.

 

So pass and hope our opponents will feel like they are being robbed and will enter the fray. :wub:

[hrothgar]

Time for the percentage mavens to provide the chances of pard's having any 4+ card suit higher than clubs.

Odds that North holds a 5332 with 5 Clubs = ~15.2%

Odss that North holds a 4333 with 4 Clubs = ~7.4%

 

Odds that North holds a 4+ card suit other than clubs = ~77.4%

 

Really not sure why you're worried about this statistic though...

4-3 fits often play very well

[Guest Jlall]

I do not agree that odds are correct to correct to 2H over 2D. While a 5-4 and a 4-2 are almost as likely, there is a 34 % chance of a 4-4. This is a significant amount. I expect a 4-4 to play much better than a 4-3 on this hand. When we have only 4-3's, it is not clear to me that there will always be a difference. Often both 2D and 2M will go down 1.

[Guest Jlall]

btw if I were to raise a major it would be HEARTS, not spades. I think a simulation would back that up *cough*.

[hrothgar]

btw if I were to raise a major it would be HEARTS, not spades. I think a simulation would back that up *cough*.

I readily admit that i didn't do a double dummy analysis

 

With this said and done, I'd be interested in hearing your reasoning

[Guest Jlall]

Not sure if I have any reasoning lol. Just intuitively feels like this is a better dummy for hearts than spades. Trying to logically think of some reasons for this feeling, if partner has KQJx of spades, his spade jack is wasted. If he has KQJx of hearts, his jack is not wasted. If partner has Kx of spades and we are in hearts, that's better than Kx of hearts if we are in spades. If partner has Qxx of a side suit and some trump holding, I'd rather that side suit be spades than hearts. If we have to ruff clubs, I'd rather ruff with hearts and then take finesses in that suit rather than having to ruff with spades after which finesses opposite something like J9xx or QJxx will be impossible unless its Hx onside. Again, I didn't really analyze it either but my gut feels pretty strongly about this. It has been wrong before though.

[MarceldB]

I don't understand those that bid 2♥ over 2♦.  Yes, we may end up in a 4-2, but we also run the risk of choosing a 4-3 over a 5-4!  Partner may be (23)53.

Two comments about passing 2♦

 

First: Passing 2♦ leaves you in a 5-4 fit 13.6% of the time. However this also leaves you in a 4-2 fit 11.6% of the time. The decision to pass fails catastrophically nearly as often as it succeeds.

 

Second: This is matchpoints. Nuff said

Is your calculation correct?

 

I come to:

 

5-4 fit in 23,35%

and 4-2 in 7,8%

 

taking into account the 4m333, 44m32, 5m332 distributions