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[hv=d=n&v=e&s=saqt9xxhxdtxxxcxx]133|100|[/hv]

1NT* - 2

2 - ?

 

Partner starts with 1NT (14-16), you transfer to , partner just accepts, opps being quiet. Do you try something or not?

- at imps?

- at MP's?

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I wish I had the spade J - then I'd have a no loser spade suit 1/2 the time opposite xxx. Without that card, I think it's too speculative to go on, although the shape is very tempting - 6/4 patterns tend to produce a lot of tricks and LTC encourages game. It seems awfully close.

 

With the spade jack I would have bid Texas; without I'm going to pass in hopes that this is one of those hands where LTC is wrong.

 

Winston

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HI,winstonm

could you tell me what is LTC meaning?

thank you

Losing Trick Count. A lot of variations so I'll just cover the basic concept without all the side issues. Ace, King, and Q are counted as 1 loser each so you have 12 total losers in any one hand.

 

AQ109xx - 1 loser, the King

x 1 loser, A

10xxx 3 losers, A, K, Q

xx 2 losers, A,K

 

Total is 7 losers. Add this number to partner's expected losers (6 or 7 for an opening NT) and subtract this total from 24. 7+7=14. 24-14=10. LTC says that 10 tricks should be available.

 

Winston

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Keri -- a method mentioned elsewhere in this forum -- has a way to show a six-card suit missing one high honor, which permits opener to step lightly on 3NT if he has the missing honor and three fast tricks elsewhere. As I recall it, Keri does this in a minor suit by responding 2C, then rebidding three of the long minor. I don't remember how the method does it in a major suit. My own (unofficial!) gloss on Keri in this area is to respond three of the long suit, whether it is a major or a minor, with HHxxxx and hopes that partner can bid 3NT with the missing honor and enough on the side. (I play weak notrumps, so 1NT-3X implies a side card as well as the six-card suit: it is too much to expect a weak-notrump opener to fill in the long suit and produce three more tricks.) One advantage of the method is that it lands in the contract you want to play if opener doesn't convert to 3NT.
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Keri -- a method mentioned elsewhere in this forum -- has a way to show a six-card suit missing one high honor, which permits opener to step lightly on 3NT if he has the missing honor and three fast tricks elsewhere. As I recall it, Keri does this in a minor suit by responding 2C, then rebidding three of the long minor. I don't remember how the method does it in a major suit. My own (unofficial!) gloss on Keri in this area is to respond three of the long suit, whether it is a major or a minor, with HHxxxx and hopes that partner can bid 3NT with the missing honor and enough on the side. (I play weak notrumps, so 1NT-3X implies a side card as well as the six-card suit: it is too much to expect a weak-notrump opener to fill in the long suit and produce three more tricks.) One advantage of the method is that it lands in the contract you want to play if opener doesn't convert to 3NT.

1N - 2 - 2 - 3 minor in Keri is just invitational. Its non-specific on # of honors.

 

Thats the original version of Keri anyway. The newer version (where 2 isn't automatic over 2) might play 3 minor as 2/3 honors.

 

With the subject hand, I'd certainly Texas over a 15-17 NT, and I probably would over a 14-16 as well. This hand evaluates real good on a ZAR / K and R basis and I would think there are many hands where game is excellent but pard doesn't accept an invite.

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I would texas at imps and transfer-pass at MP. I don't think this is a good candidate for an invite, we can never get partner to know that his diamond holding is what's crucial, or that club honors are better than heart honors.
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I'd actually invite on this hand. Transfer and raise is a different kind of invite than rebidding 2NT. I expect partner to evaluate that:

 

(1) Trump honors and side quick tricks are good.

(2) Trump fit is good, side doubleton very good.

(3) Slow outside cards are bad, although 3NT maybe an outside shot.

 

There are "maximums" where I would decline this sort of invite, and "minimums" where I would accept. For example game is good opposite:

 

Kxx

Axxx

Axx

Axx

 

Game is lousy opposite:

 

xx

KQxx

KQx

AQJx

 

It's true that diamond honors are worth more than heart honors, and that partner won't be able to figure this out, but I think partner is well-equipped to bid game on the first of these hands and pass 3 on the second.

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Id like to ask the experts who dont invite, is partner having 17 hcp instead of 15 doesnt increase the chances of the game to make ? is partner having 3(4) spades instead of only 2 increase the chances to make a game ?

I agree that he wont know exactly what good and what bad, but this isnt uniqe to this hand, and still know something.

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I'd actually invite on this hand. Transfer and raise is a different kind of invite than rebidding 2NT. I expect partner to evaluate that:

 

(1) Trump honors and side quick tricks are good.

(2) Trump fit is good, side doubleton very good.

(3) Slow outside cards are bad, although 3NT maybe an outside shot.

 

There are "maximums" where I would decline this sort of invite, and "minimums" where I would accept. For example game is good opposite:

 

Kxx.Axxx.Axx.Axx

 

Game is lousy opposite:

 

xx.KQxx.KQx.AQJx

 

It's true that diamond honors are worth more than heart honors, and that partner won't be able to figure this out, but I think partner is well-equipped to bid game on the first of these hands and pass 3 on the second.

Darn good analysis. The issue from my POV is which is more likely, hands more your 1st example or hands more like your 2nd?

 

ATT, I'd sweat over this one.

 

My thoughts would go something like this:

balanced 14 HCP => 4.6 controls on average

balanced 15 HCP => 5.0 controls on average

balanced 16 HCP => 5.5 controls on average

 

We need 7+ controls to be in Game. I have a 2 control 7 loser hand opposite a hand with 5 expected controls and 7 expected losers when we have a known fit. We may even have a 9 card fit.

 

Therefore my hand is worth an invite at MPs and a GF Red at IMPs (you are never going to accurately describe AQT9xx.x.xxxx.xx in the room available).

 

White at IMPs or playing BAM, I'm going to be playing a lot of possible boards in my head before I take my next call...

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