No solution?

[Finch]

From the London Year End Swiss Pairs. This was the auction at a good number of tables:

 

[hv=d=w&v=e&w=sjxxxxhjxxxxxdxcx&e=sxxhak10xdakqxxcaj]266|100|Scoring: MP

P 3♣ x 5♣

P P x P

5♥ P 6♥ all pass[/hv]

 

At both my table and my husband's table (we weren't playing together) the auction was completely identical: over 5H East thought for ages and eventually raised, in the hope that a spade lead would not be obvious.

 

5♣ is only one off.

[pbleighton]

The beauty of Forum bidding is that I can say with confidence that 6H is overly optimistic, given pd's pass over 5C.

 

Peter

[EricK]

Pre-empts work.

 

On the other hand, how likely is it that the weak hand will provide a twelfth trick? If diamonds don't provide 5 tricks (and I think it is against the odds that they do) slam seems a bit optimistic.

 

Eric

[mikeh]

IFF partner has 6♥, which is reasonable but not assured (give him Qxxxx Qxxxx xx x?), then you get 12 tricks IFF the ♦ suit comes home for 5 winners. Thus you need (in my view) one probable event (6♥) and one improbable event (5♦) and one probable event (a non-♠ lead). That trifecta is a low-probability event, altho admittedly it is enhanced by the counter-acting non-trivial possibility that partner has a ♠ control :P

 

I think it comes down to the general philosophy one adopts in high-level competitive auctions: is the glass half-full or half-empty? Do we strive to reach the ultimate spot or do we settle for the (almost) sure plus?

 

I am an old(er) player, with an inherently pessimistic view of life, so I pass 5♥.

 

However, I'd do so knowing that I might have missed a good slam.

 

I doubt that my musings help any, but I also doubt that Frances expected to read any piercing insights into what was essentially a guess and a poll of one's degree of optimism as East :)

[Kalvan14]

I doubt that my musings help any, but I also doubt that Frances expected to read any piercing insights into what was essentially a guess and a poll of one's degree of optimism as East ;)

Very well said :)

[Finch]

a poll of one's degree of optimism as East

 

Quite. How much does partner need to bid/double directly over 5C? So, what is partner's maximum? Also, I think the form of scoring is relevant: partner will bid over the double of 5C more often at pairs, so potentially a raise at imps is more tempting.