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Play 4H


Poky

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I can see three possible lines:

 

A) Win the K, play A and Q. Hope that they can't get a spade ruff immediately and that spades and clubs can be played for 2 losers.

 

:P Win the K, take the club hook, intending to take the heart hook later. This obivously gains with respect to line (A) when the heart king is on, but inceases the risks of a quick spade ruff.

 

C) Win the A and take the heart hook. This allows you to take all three finesses without significantly increasing the chance of a spade ruff. It does risk being shortened in trump when they split badly. It also risks an extra spade loser when they split 4-1.

 

 

At the table I would never be able to figure out which line has the best chances. I think that line © is the classiest, so I choose that one.

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Crash the 's and play the 10 off the board. Using the A as a pitch for the 4th spade (in case they are 4-1) doesn't seem very wise to me. This maximizes dummies entries for the spade and heart hooks.

 

I may regret this if hearts break 4-1 and 2 of the cards are offside, mind you, but I'm probably in trouble anyway.

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win K, play Q. If it loses, you have yourself 2 entries for finesses. If it wins, you can discard your loser on A (later in the game) because sneaky RHO could still hold K. So then we only need to play trumps and for 3 losers, which is a piece of cake...

 

I don't like to play A and drop the K under, since you might get in trouble if some finesses don't work and opps play which you have to ruff.

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I am not pretending to have worked out the odds, but my line is to win the K and lead a low to the J.

 

If this wins, I am almost assured of a make: lead the 10, and I can afford 2 losers and will not lose control if trump are 4-1.

 

If it loses, then my line depends on how the defence goes. If RHO leads a low , that might be from Axx or from Qxx, and I need to guess. If RHO leads the A and a , that is probably from Ax but might be from AQx.

 

Assume that I get the guess right half the time: now I have to guess again: does the short hand have 2 or 3 trump? If 2, then I must play A and a trump. If 3, then I have to hope the K is onside.

 

Bear in mind that I will by then have some clue: rho will have shown the Q (because of the lead) and the K. If he also has the A, I will not play him for the K.

 

I think my line is 50% (roughly) when the hook wins and about another 15% or so for when it loses (If the guess is relevant, I get it right 50% of the time and I then get the trump right most of the time when it is possible).

 

The problems with Hannie's other two lines include the giving up in trump (unless the K is stiff), which means betting that you can hold your black suit losers to 2: most of the time you can do this, my line works as well, and my line works half the time that you have to lose 3 black tricks.

 

The 3rd line: winning trick 1 n dummy seems to me an unnecessary risk: you create a tap suit for the opps and you are almost always failing when trump are 4-1 unless both the K and Q are onside.

 

But this is the type of hand on which the Rodwells and Rosenbergs of the world demonstrate their strengths: I bet they'd know the correct line, percentagewise, while I am sort of fumbling my way to the answer :P

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win K, play Q. If it loses, you have yourself 2 entries for finesses. If it wins, you can discard your loser on A (later in the game) because sneaky RHO could still hold K. So then we only need to play trumps and for 3 losers, which is a piece of cake...

 

I don't like to play A and drop the K under, since you might get in trouble if some finesses don't work and opps play which you have to ruff.

Great line of play Frederick. :) Never occurred to me.

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