Poky Posted December 22, 2005 Report Share Posted December 22, 2005 [hv=d=n&v=b&n=s109xxh107xdaxxcajx&s=skjxxhaqj9xdkcq10x]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]pass pass 1♥ pass2♣ pass 4♥ all pass Lead: ♦J Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted December 22, 2005 Report Share Posted December 22, 2005 I can see three possible lines: A) Win the ♦K, play ♥A and Q. Hope that they can't get a spade ruff immediately and that spades and clubs can be played for 2 losers. :P Win the ♦K, take the club hook, intending to take the heart hook later. This obivously gains with respect to line (A) when the heart king is on, but inceases the risks of a quick spade ruff. C) Win the ♦A and take the heart hook. This allows you to take all three finesses without significantly increasing the chance of a spade ruff. It does risk being shortened in trump when they split badly. It also risks an extra spade loser when they split 4-1. At the table I would never be able to figure out which line has the best chances. I think that line © is the classiest, so I choose that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pclayton Posted December 22, 2005 Report Share Posted December 22, 2005 Crash the ♦'s and play the ♥10 off the board. Using the A♦ as a pitch for the 4th spade (in case they are 4-1) doesn't seem very wise to me. This maximizes dummies entries for the spade and heart hooks. I may regret this if hearts break 4-1 and 2 of the cards are offside, mind you, but I'm probably in trouble anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted December 22, 2005 Report Share Posted December 22, 2005 win ♦K, play ♣Q. If it loses, you have yourself 2 entries for finesses. If it wins, you can discard your ♣ loser on ♦A (later in the game) because sneaky RHO could still hold ♣K. So then we only need to play trumps and ♠ for 3 losers, which is a piece of cake... I don't like to play ♦A and drop the K under, since you might get in trouble if some finesses don't work and opps play ♦ which you have to ruff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted December 22, 2005 Report Share Posted December 22, 2005 I am not pretending to have worked out the odds, but my line is to win the ♦K and lead a low ♣ to the J. If this wins, I am almost assured of a make: lead the ♥10, and I can afford 2♠ losers and will not lose control if trump are 4-1. If it loses, then my line depends on how the defence goes. If RHO leads a low ♠, that might be from Axx or from Qxx, and I need to guess. If RHO leads the A and a ♠, that is probably from Ax but might be from AQx. Assume that I get the ♠ guess right half the time: now I have to guess again: does the short ♠ hand have 2 or 3 trump? If 2, then I must play A and a trump. If 3, then I have to hope the K is onside. Bear in mind that I will by then have some clue: rho will have shown the ♦Q (because of the lead) and the ♣K. If he also has the ♠A, I will not play him for the ♥K. I think my line is 50% (roughly) when the ♣ hook wins and about another 15% or so for when it loses (If the ♠ guess is relevant, I get it right 50% of the time and I then get the trump right most of the time when it is possible). The problems with Hannie's other two lines include the giving up in trump (unless the K is stiff), which means betting that you can hold your black suit losers to 2: most of the time you can do this, my line works as well, and my line works half the time that you have to lose 3 black tricks. The 3rd line: winning trick 1 n dummy seems to me an unnecessary risk: you create a tap suit for the opps and you are almost always failing when trump are 4-1 unless both the ♣K and ♠Q are onside. But this is the type of hand on which the Rodwells and Rosenbergs of the world demonstrate their strengths: I bet they'd know the correct line, percentagewise, while I am sort of fumbling my way to the answer :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pclayton Posted December 22, 2005 Report Share Posted December 22, 2005 win ♦K, play ♣Q. If it loses, you have yourself 2 entries for finesses. If it wins, you can discard your ♣ loser on ♦A (later in the game) because sneaky RHO could still hold ♣K. So then we only need to play trumps and ♠ for 3 losers, which is a piece of cake... I don't like to play ♦A and drop the K under, since you might get in trouble if some finesses don't work and opps play ♦ which you have to ruff. Great line of play Frederick. :) Never occurred to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted December 22, 2005 Report Share Posted December 22, 2005 Have no idea what is best. Will just follow the rule of setting up side suit first so will lead Q of clubs and see what happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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