nasty guess

[han]

I had to make a nasty guess on the following hand:

 

[hv=d=s&v=b&n=saxxhqxxxdxcaxxxx&s=skq1098haj9xdckj9x]133|200|Scoring: MP

1S-2C-(2D)

3C-(3D)-3S

5D-5NT

6D-6S-all pass[/hv]

 

Not the top spot, but there you are. West leads the queen of diamonds. You ruff, play a spade to the ace, take the heart hook which loses, a heart comes back. You pull trump. West started with xx in spades and K10x in hearts.

 

As the club hook seems useless, you play the king of clubs and east follows with the ♣10. West plays low when you lead the jack. Do you finesse or go up with the ace?

 

 

You are playing in a team match against awm and his regular partner. A good guess might just be enough for a win, better get it right!

[inquiry]

This is a counting position, and a normal logic one too. Your opponents have a 12 card diamond fit, and only competed to 3♦ after finding a fit. This suggest flat distribution otherwise. So West had, two spades, and three hearts. We anticipate west with no more than 6 diamonds. With 7 and his partner overcall, he would be jumping through the roof. And EAST will not have 8♦ or there is no way he wouldn't take another call.

 

So West is either 2-3-6-2 (xx KTx Qxxxxx xx, or 2-3-5-3 (xx KTx Qxxxx Qxx), there is no good pick between either of these hands, both might bid 3♦ or 4♦. Now let's turn our attention to EAST. If West has only five diamonds, East would have seven. What would his hand be.. (six versus seven diamonds)...

 

Jxx

xx

(AKJxxxx) *you didn't give us the diamond spots which would help

T

 

If he had only six diamonds, it would be,

 

Jxx

xx

AKJxxx

Qx

 

The first hand looks preemptive, and with a single club. And even without the initial preempt might easily take another after his partner raises. The second hand, with club Queen and one less diamond makes both an initial preempt (which didn't happen) and the later competition (that didn't happen) much less attractive.

 

What the heck, every beginner knows how to play this... "eight ever, nine never"..... :-)

[Guest Jlall]

On the other side of Ben's analysis, we have the west hand.

 

xx

KTx

QJTxxx

xx

 

Seems like a very preemptive hand when partner overcalls 2D. However

 

xx

KTx

QJTxx

Qxx is much less likely to preempt.

 

It is much easier for me to envision a 2D overcall on Jxx xx AKxxxxx x than a simple raise with a prime hand and six trumps.

[inquiry]

Well with both of West hands you show Justin, West might do more than 3♦, as I mentioned (with five or six he might make a preempt). But with the secnod hand (xx KTx QJTxx Qxx), his partner will have....

 

Jxx xx AKxxxxx T <<--- which is MUCH less likely on this auction without a preempt by EAST or a further bid by EAST after a raise than the alternative of pass.

 

Jxx xx AKxxxx QT.

[Guest Jlall]

Well with both of West hands you show Justin, West might do more than 3♦, as I mentioned (with five or six he might make a preempt). But with the secnod hand (xx KTx QJTxx Qxx), his partner will have....

With 5332 and defensive values like the CQ and HK I think 3D is certainly reasonable. With 6322 and not much defense at all, it doesnt seem in the realm of normality at all.

 

Likewise I think with AK seventh and out overcalling 2D red then passing throughout is in the realm of normality.

[Chamaco]

I had to make a nasty guess on the following hand

 

...........

 

Do you finesse or go up with the ace?

 

 

I wonder whether the hearts finesse could have been postponed ?

 

After cashing trumps and AK and a club, even losing the 3rd club, there are some endplay positions ?

 

Seems like the best return is a diamond ruff/sluff (but is it so easy to find it for the defender ?), where the heart discard from hand is not so useful, and we can still fall back on hearts later ?

 

===================

 

Alternatively, i the line played by Han, I'd cash the hearts winners to finish counting the hand before attempting the crtitical play in clubs...

[han]

Drawing trump before you take the heart hook is very dangerous, as you could get trump short when they play more diamonds. It is very unlikely that you can endplay them after drawing trumps: they can always return a diamond.

 

 

I took a long time before deciding what to play. There were two people in my head, a little Ben and a little Justin, telling me that West or East should have the 12th diamond. I finally misguessed, as usual.

 

I don't think that the diamond spot (I have only one) matter. West clearly has QJ and east clearly has the AK.

[inquiry]

Drawing trump before you take the heart hook is very dangerous, as you could get trump short when they play more diamonds. It is very unlikely that you can endplay them after drawing trumps: they can always return a diamond.

 

 

I took a long time before deciding what to play. There were two people in my head, a little Ben and a little Justin, telling me that West or East should have the 12th diamond. I finally misguessed, as usual.

 

I don't think that the diamond spot (I have only one) matter. West clearly has QJ and east clearly has the AK.

I was meaning ♦ honors not small. The ♦Q looks like without the AK.. I think. But the guess is to figure out what your opponents would do with different hand types. One piece of logic, is the fellow with 7th diamond would have hard time not bidding again... should carry a lot of weight.

 

BTW, playing on hearts early to tell you how to play the club suit is 100% correct play imho... of course, that assumes you use the information you found.

[Chamaco]

What about cashing all hearts to get a count before playing the crucial club ?

 

EDIT: sorry just saw Ben's post