Matchpoint play problem

[Chamaco]

[hv=d=n&v=b&n=saxhkxxdakjxcqjxx&s=st8xxxxhqjxdxxcxx]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

Yesterday I ended up playing 3 spades from my side, in an uncontested auction.

I'd appreciate feedback o the decision about the line of play, with specific attentio to the Matchpoints tactics.

 

The lead was a small heart, I played low from dummy and my Q held the trick.

 

I could see that - under normal conditions - there was little hope of fulfilling the contract, losing 1 heart, 2 clubs, and 2+ trump.

 

However, I realized I had been lucky to avoid a lead that would allow the defense to cashout their tricks from the start.

I had now the chance to try to discard a club loser on diamonds.

 

I had 2 choices:

 

a. finessing directly the diamond Q.

If this holds, I cask spade ace and play AK of diamonds, discarding a club, hoping for no adverse ruffs, or that the one who ruffs has a natural trump trick (e.g. K9x over my T8xxxx).

 

b. Play for the drop of the diamond Q.

AK of diamonds, and diamond ruff.

If the Q drops, I cash spade ace, and discard a club, hoping for a favourable trump position.

 

Solution a. has a higher % to succed to discard, but if the finesse is wrong, it loses a trick rather than winning one, ending up by losing 2 clubs, 1 diamond, 1 heart + whatever trump losers.

 

So, if a. is wrong, is an almost sure bottom, if a. is right, it is a top.

 

Solution b has much less hope to succeed, because:

- dropping Qxx when 7 cards are outstanding has something like 35% (I did not check, but more or less that's what I expect)

- even if I drop it, then the good diamond (the J) will likely be ruffed.

 

However, if this play fails, I lose nothing compared to the other tables.

If it does succeed, it can work if the hand with Qxx has either a singleton trump of K9x over my T8xxxx

 

========================

 

Comments ?

[whereagles]

This one is easy: play to make. Opps have pushed you to the 3-level and they can't make anything. Not all of the field will be playing 3♠, so if you go down you're bound to get a bad score anyway. Better try and make the contract.

 

The difference between -100 and -200 is marginal, but between -200 and +140 is huge.

[Chamaco]

This one is easy: play to make. Opps have pushed you to the 3-level and they can't make anything. Not all of the field will be playing 3♠, so if you go down you're bound to get a bad score anyway. Better try and make the contract.

 

The difference between -100 and -200 is marginal, but between -200 and +140 is huge.

Don't you expect the "field" auction would be the following ?

 

1m(*)- 1♠(**)

2NT-3♠

 

1m(*) = either 1♣ or 1♦ opening, according to the system.

 

1♠(**) = here some might choose to pass out the 1m opener. However, I have found that the large part of the field tends not to pass with such a weak hand.

Some others might have the agreement of 2♠ = superweak, nonconstructive weak jump, which is winner here.

 

I expect that part of the field will play 2S, but only if they play very weak jump responses (say 0-4/5 hcp), which might send a danger signal to opener.

 

I tend to think that most tables would end in 3S anyways, but I'd like coments also about this inference of mine :(

[joker_gib]

Where I play, I expect the auction to be 1m-2♠ ..

 

So I'd finesse ♦ directly and try to make.

 

Alain

[whereagles]

Ah, yes. It was an uncontested auction. Still, some will pass 1m, while others will be playing 2♠. Play to make still applies, unless you're sure a 40% or so in the board is good enough at this stage.

[luis]

About the contract: Everybody will be in 3♠ so we are in the par contract.

Now what you have to do is to evaluate 2 things: 1) How you are doing in the tournament and 2) How good the field is.

 

If you are doing badly play to make it. You are not going to win with an average -100.

If you are doing well then:

- In a strong field play to make, since most of the other declarers will do the same

- In a weak field play to go down 1, avoid the bottom and keep your good score alive, they won't take a finesse that they don't need

 

Luis

[ArcLight]

I think you are not in the par contract, and are destined for a bottom, unless you can make your contract.

 

I would finesse the J♦.

 

----------------------------------------

 

Would most Souths respond after pards 1m opening?

 

Their points are junk on offense (QJx). Pass and pray opps balance. If they trap pass, you can then redouble for takeout. Might not West bid if South passes? Maybe Hearts?

 

Some pairs might use preemptive raises/weak jump shifts of 2♠. In that case North will pass. If a pair is using Strong Jump Shifts (a la Lawrence 2/1) they might not do so well.

 

I don't think 3♠ will be bid by everyone. Your probable -100 will be bad unless the 2 Heart games doesnt make. If half the pairs dont bid 3S and make their contract, then your score will be at best 50% if you go down. But if you make you can get 100%. If you go down 2, your 50% goes to 0% if they switch to clubs.

The 2♠ bidders wont even need the finesse to make their contract. So I'd go for it and take the finesse.

[Gerben42]

here some might choose to pass out the 1m opener

 

Count me in! Too weak for a constructive WJS. But also for play to make here. I wonder how you got this high, going down won't be worth anything as many might be in 2♠, unless you try to go down one less than those that are in 2♠, thus pushing the board with them

[kenrexford]

I am curious about the auction and about the pips. This may lead one to decipher the likelihood of a successful diamond finesse. For instance, if the heart lead appears to be away from the Ace, I expect LHO to have the diamond Queen, unless he neglected to open. If the heart lead appears to be from a doubleton, I expect the finesse to work also. In either instance, I split the club honors, spluit the top club honors, and count points. If RHO holds Qx-Axxxx-Qxx-Kxx, he'd overcall 1H, probably. If LHO holds Qx-Axx-Qxxx-Kxxx, he might open, and certainly would if the spade honor is better or if the club is the Ace, the latyter being likely for not leading a club instead.

 

As to par contract, I have little idea. 3S is the worst of most possible, but I expect some people to even languish in 2NT.

[Al_U_Card]

There will be a few passes and a few WJS and a few 2NT.....dont most play 3S after 2NT as a choice of games as 3 of the minor is a slam try and 3 of the other minor is NMF? That said, LHO has the C ace and at least a S honor so I would try the D hook at trick 2 and pitch the C after playing the S ace and the top D.

[Al_U_Card]

Pard didn't open 1 or 2NT did he? (You did say uncontested.....)

[Chamaco]

I am curious about the auction.

My pard during this event is considered one of the top players of the club (regular partner of an ex World Champion), who has offered me to play with him for a mentorship to help me improve.

 

He is teachig me a 5 card major system developed by Garozzo and Zucchelli, full of gadgets rather new to me, and this was the first time I played it.

 

Perhaps the system is not effective, but I am not going to argue about the system effectiveness with a strong players who accepts to mentor me :)

 

The auction went:

 

1C(1) - 2H (2)

2NT-3S

 

 

1) 1C(12-14/18-19 bal or clubs)

2) 2H = transfer to spades, 6+ bagger, either rubbish (0-5/6), or GF slammish

3) 2NT (shows extras, natural, 18-19 bal)

4) 3S = natural signoff

 

========

 

Almost nobody in italy (and for sure nobody at the Bologna club) plays the 1m-2S rubbish WJS, so I was expecting from the field, either a 1m - all pass OR a 1m-1S-2NT-3S auction at the other table.

 

 

============

 

To respond to Luis question:

the tourney was going very well, indeed this was the last board, and we won the event with 75% LOL (second pair had 60%)

[mikeh]

I don't know about the likely auctions at other tables in your club, but I would expect a significant number of tables to reach 3♠ and some to go higher. In a typical club field, the results approach random :lol: For example, some will respond with your hand, either weak 2♠ or 1♠, and opener will not stop short of game, even tho your hand will try its best.

 

So 3♠ is probably just a touch below par, in terms of level. If you get out for down one, then my guess would be about a 25-35% mp score. If you go down 2, my guess is a tied for bottom: say 5-10%.

 

If you make 140, a 85% board.

 

So by playing to make, you are risking about 20-25% of a board in an effort to gain about 50% of a board: so the cost/benefit ratio is heavily in favour of trying to make. I'd estimate your expectancy at 45%

 

That is not quite the end of the analysis, since you correctly observed that you could choose to play AK♦ ruff a ♦ (if the Q did not appear on rounds one or two). That may gain when the Q drops tripleton and the short ♦ holds the long ♠, but that is a low probability combination: I'd guess around 20% altho I have not done the math.

 

That line increases your expectancy by 10% overall: thus getting you, I'd estimate, about a 40% average score if you played the same cards 100 times, with the ew cards randomized.

 

Which means that the second line of play appears to be slightly less attractive than the first: admittedly all my math is based on guesswork: the time of estimating I would do at the table.

 

If we were doing ok, and it was late in the round, I'd probably opt for line number two, which rates to score modestly, but has a low chance of being a near-zero: under all other circumstances, I would go with line number 1.

 

BTW, it's nice to see that the same gadget can be invented independently: I have been playing the two-way jump shift transfer to 1♣ (into either ♥ or ♠) for almost 10 years. Our followup is a bit more complex: 2N is an asking bid, with responder not allowed to bid 3 of his major, to ensure the strong hand is declarer.

[kenberg]

I would finesse. If it were clear that the contract around the room would be 3S, I would not finesse. That is not clear however.

 

For example, I would pass the 1D bid. Mostly this is because I find that when I bid 1S partner bids 2NT and we are too high. If partner does not have the 2NT hand then fourth hand will have some values and balance. They always do. Anyway, whether you agree or not (since you bid 1S I imagine that you don't agree), I am pretty sure I am not the only one who would pass 1D. 1D may make (not as crazy as it first appears since the cards will not be played with declarer's hand face up) and anyway, the contract may not be 1D since fourth hand has not yet been heard from. We may well end in 2S after a third hand pass. And of course there are those folks who think this is a 2S bid over 1D. I try not to play weak jumps shifts and I wouldn't make one here if I could, but folks do. So while 3S will be fairly common, maybe half the tables, it will not be universal.

 

Mostly I play for contract unless it is pretty clear that I should not. Funny things happen at other tables. Here it is not clear what will happen elsewhere and the finesse offers a reasonable shot at a plus score. So I take it.

 

I definitely would not criticize, silently or otherwise, a partner who played off the top diamonds. No guarantee comes with either line.

 

k

[Fluffy]

There will be more at 4♠ than 3.

 

But anyway most will be at 2 or 1m o sily contracts on their side. I think the best you can try is to win.

[Robert]

Hello Chamaco

 

I think you should play for the contract.

 

Another small consideration might be that some pairs playing a big club might bid 1C-1D-1NT-and show the spades to stop at the two level.

 

Some(many) Precision pairs play a 17-19HCP 1NT rebid. My 1C-1D-1NT rebid shows 18-20HCP. Blue Team Club would also bid 1C-1D-1NT=18-20HCP

 

Good question. :lol:

 

Regards,

Robert

[Guest Jlall]

I approach matchpoints differently, I guess that's why I suck at it. I do not try to guess what the field will be in and go through this mathematical analysis, it's simply impossible (for me). Will people be in 2S? 3S? 4S? doubled? I dunno, but I will just focus on the bridge.

 

I do know that if I hook and it loses I'm not down 2 yet. They still have to cash the clubs, and then cash the heart. I'm sure the percentage of them not doing that is between 20 and 80 % depending on who they are.

 

I would just play to make it here. I may not be able to estimate the field well, but I would guess +140 is a good score.

[Al_U_Card]

I like the D hook for 2 reasons. I HATE getting the 4th D ruffed out by a baby S (so it's not really a loser on a loser) and you can do it right away before they have too much info about the hand and how they should continue the defense. Like he cashes the H ace and tries to give pard a ruff.....

[pclayton]

I'd play for the diamond hook too.

 

I understand the logic of ruffing out the diamond and taking your pitch, however, getting the Q to come down Qx or Qxx is about 28% (seems thats what it is the last time I calced this combo). Even then, its possible that the short spade hand is taking the ruff of the J♦, so you aren't gaining anything. Further, you might have some other trump promotion lurking out there.

 

I think you are already behind the field here. Its possible some are stopping in 2♠, either with a strong club or passing 1♣. So -1 doesn't rate to be good anyway. Its hard to see the opponents can make much of anything, so you need to be in a plus position here.

 

I hate trying to play for an average minus (versus a zero) when I have a decent prospect of an average plus or better.

[luke warm]

i agree with fluffy that there will be at least as many (or more) in 4♠ as there are in 2 or 3♠ combined... i could be wrong of course, but that's what i think... anyway, i'd try to make this and taking the ♦ hook appears to give me my best chance

[luis]

I am curious about the auction.

My pard during this event is considered one of the top players of the club (regular partner of an ex World Champion), who has offered me to play with him for a mentorship to help me improve.

 

He is teachig me a 5 card major system developed by Garozzo and Zucchelli, full of gadgets rather new to me, and this was the first time I played it.

 

Perhaps the system is not effective, but I am not going to argue about the system effectiveness with a strong players who accepts to mentor me :rolleyes:

 

The auction went:

 

1C(1) - 2H (2)

2NT-3S

 

 

1) 1C(12-14/18-19 bal or clubs)

2) 2H = transfer to spades, 6+ bagger, either rubbish (0-5/6), or GF slammish

3) 2NT (shows extras, natural, 18-19 bal)

4) 3S = natural signoff

 

========

 

Almost nobody in italy (and for sure nobody at the Bologna club) plays the 1m-2S rubbish WJS, so I was expecting from the field, either a 1m - all pass OR a 1m-1S-2NT-3S auction at the other table.

 

 

============

 

To respond to Luis question:

the tourney was going very well, indeed this was the last board, and we won the event with 75% LOL (second pair had 60%)

Ok If we are doing well I play to go down 1 I can stand a 40% board or so. No reason to try for 80% or 0% on a finesse.

 

Down 1 for me.

[kenrexford]

I suspect that my original post is being misunderstood. I am not "curious" about the auction because it seems odd. Rather, I am wondering who was dealer, and who had a chance to make a call. This might enable better analysis as to options.

 

I also find the pips critical.

 

To re-explain, a tad further. Suppose that LHO had passed initially. Suppose, further, that his lead is the deuce and that the played pips and visible pips in dummy makes a suck of the Ace from RHO odd. This suggests a strange Ace underlead. An underlead of an Ace suggests that this was the least of all evils. I would expect, therefore, something like Qx-Axxx-Qxx-Axxx, except that this is too strong -- LHO might open with this. However, perhaps Qx-Axxx-Qxx-Kxxx??? That seems remote. But, an underlead of an ace certainly suggests that a diamond from trash might have been selected. Hence, if it appears that the heart lead was small from A-empty, I'd finesse.

 

A better scenario, more likely. What if the heart looks like a doubleton? This places the heart ace to the right. With AK of clubs, LHO would probably lead one, so I split those honors. Ducking the heart Ace, as opposed to rising and sending a small one back (lead-director), suggests that RHO has the King of clubs, LHO the Ace. The attack of a doubleton (6-1 unlikely for the 1C-P start) suggests that LHO holds Kxx and RHO QJ tight of spades. Thus, the doubleton lead suggests that RHO holds QJ-Axxxx-???-Kx(x). You cannot add in the diamond Queen and get a pass. Thus, I'd finesse.

 

Of course, all of this changes if the opponents are nutcases.

 

In any event, as I type this, I am having some difficulty visualizing any scenario where the heart is the lead and I win the first trick when the diamond finesse fails. The sole logical situation appears to be when LHO leads what appears to be small but might be MUD (the three, when I do not see the 2?), and when RHO sticks in a card that caters to a J-based lead. Then, I suspect that RHO holds diamond control and does not fear a pitch of the hearts on diamonds. So, if my Queen won the 10, or perhaps the 9, or even the 8 if the 9 is on dummy, I now get concerned.

 

Figuring this problem out using bidding theory and such seems less fruitful than using the psychology of the opponent's strange allowance of winning trick one in hearts, as well as restricted choice and the auction limitations.

[Chamaco]

Rather, I am wondering who was dealer, and who had a chance to make a call. This might enable better analysis as to options.

 

I also find the pips critical.

1- Dummy was the dealer, opened 1st seat;

 

2- I do not remember the pips, sorry

 

=============================

 

Just for the record, in the actual hand both lines worked in this case:

LHO held Qxx in diamonds AND KJ9 in trumps, so after I ruffed out his DQ and cashed trump A, he ruffed the J of diamonds with a good trump.

 

I was simply curious about this choice because I was quite torn.