Moysian slam

[MickyB]

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=skqxxhkqt98dqjxcx&s=saxxhadktxxcajxxx]133|200|Scoring: IMP

Contract 6♦

T1:♦-xQAx

T2:♦-x[/hv]

 

Have just lost in the first round of a k/o, making this would have been enough to win it. If it is any help, you are feeling quite lucky - you got to this not-too-shabby contract through a total misunderstanding :)

 

If you don't mind, please say whether you think you would have found your line at the table.

[Kalvan14]

T3: A♣

T4: small ♣ ruff with small ♦ in dummy

T5: A♥

T6: K♦, discarding small ♥ (if ♦ are 3-3, small spade to K, K & Q ♥; if J♥ has come down, 12 tricks. Otherwise back to hand with ♠A, and ♦T for a squeeze). If ♦ are 4-2, with 4 cards in RHO, I am still going to dummy, and playing K & Q ♥). If LHO has 4♦, I would play the last round of trumps, discarding a heart. Then K♠, K & Q ♥, and back to hand with A♠. I win with spades 3-3 or spades 4-2 with control in clubs in the hand with 4 spades.

 

This is a line of play i would selet at the table. i have not gone through the calculations of all the percentages. However, leading a trump against this slam might make me feel that RHO has a slow trick in both majors. If trumps are 4-2, I would expect that LHO has 4.

[Limey_p]

My "at the table" line is similar to Kalvan's, except I would cash the hearts before finishing trump. I don't know at this moment which line is better, but I'm getting out my pencil and paper to figure it out ...

 

AP

[Rebound]

Well, in this unlikely slam, I will play for the unlikely 3-3 diamond break and win the diamond return in hand, cash the ♥ A and play a diamond to the Q.

 

Of course, if they aren't 3-3 I'm stuck. But if they break, I can now ruff a heart and if they are 4-3, I get 4♦, 4♥, 3♠, and a ♣.

 

It's a simplistic line, I know. It requires that both diamonds and hearts break evenly. I just don't have enough brain cells working at the moment to come up with something better so it's likely what I would do at the table were I playing right now :P

[Rebound]

I suppose it wouldn't hurt to test some suits first. So, let's say I win ♦K, play ♥A, ♠x to K, ♥K, 9. What does RHO play on the 9?

[Fluffy]

T3: A♣

T4: small ♣ ruff with small ♦ in dummy

T5: A♥

T6: K♦, discarding small ♥ (if ♦ are 3-3, small spade to K, K & Q ♥; if J♥ has come down, 12 tricks. Otherwise back to hand with ♠A, and ♦T for a squeeze). If ♦ are 4-2, with 4 cards in RHO, I am still going to dummy, and playing K & Q ♥). If LHO has 4♦, I would play the last round of trumps, discarding a heart. Then K♠, K & Q ♥, and back to hand with A♠. I win with spades 3-3 or spades 4-2 with control in clubs in the hand with 4 spades.

 

This is a line of play i would selet at the table. i have not gone through the calculations of all the percentages. However, leading a trump against this slam might make me feel that RHO has a slow trick in both majors. If trumps are 4-2, I would expect that LHO has 4.

I would had played this way, then found dummy is squeezed too late.

[Kalvan14]

T3: A♣

T4: small ♣ ruff with small ♦ in dummy

T5: A♥

T6: K♦, discarding small ♥ (if ♦ are 3-3, small spade to K, K & Q ♥; if J♥ has come down, 12 tricks. Otherwise back to hand with ♠A, and ♦T for a squeeze). If ♦ are 4-2, with 4 cards in RHO, I am still going to dummy, and playing K & Q ♥). If LHO has 4♦, I would play the last round of trumps, discarding a heart. Then K♠, K & Q ♥, and back to hand with A♠. I win with spades 3-3 or spades 4-2 with control in clubs in the hand with 4 spades.

 

This is a line of play i would selet at the table. i have not gone through the calculations of all the percentages. However, leading a trump against this slam might make me feel that RHO has a slow trick in both majors. If trumps are 4-2, I would expect that LHO has 4.

I would had played this way, then found dummy is squeezed too late.

Dummy is squeezed, but you can control the situation. The 5th heart can be discarded without any problems. If diamonds are 3-3, everything is fine. If not, I can check the hearts before it is too late.

[Winstonm]

Without the bidding it's a little harder....still, that diamond lead suggests holdings that are unpleasant from which to lead...what would you lead against this slam from Jxxx, Jxxx, xx, Qxx?

 

I'm going for the obvious if this is indeed the reason for the passive lead. Win in dummy, cross to the heart Ace, Club Ace and ruff, Heart King, then spade to hand to finish the diamonds and hope for the heart/spade squeeze.

 

Winston

[MickyB]

Didn't want to mention the bidding :) But here goes...

 

1♦:1♥

1NT:4♠

6♣:6♦

P

 

1NT showed both minors with longer diamonds, 4♠ was obviously intended as natural (pard sighed just after bidding, he knew the meaning of 1NT but had a brain freeze) but slowly alerted as a splinter. Not sure if this might have faced an adjustment had I made it.

 

That's an interesting point. Am I allowed to base the play on the affect that my partner's mannerisms may have had on the opponents? I guess not...but it is AI that he has misbid...hmm :(

[MickyB]

Rebound - I think your first line only gives you three diamond tricks, leaving you one short.

 

Kalvan - I basically followed your line except I missed the chance for a squeeze.

 

I think the right line is -

 

win T2 with the diamond queen

ace of clubs

club ruff

trump throwing a *SPADE*

 

Now if diamonds are 4-2 on the left, I have to play the 4th trump and trust the jack of hearts will fall, that is very slightly worse than the 3-3 spade break would have been (35.5% a priori, both a bit better after trumps have broken). Actually RHO had xxxx Jxxx Axx xx and I could - should - have ruffed out the heart.

[MickyB]

Limey, think I've just realised what you were going for with your line - was the paper+pencil any help?!

[Robert]

hello everyone

 

I do not believe that there would be any strong inference available after a trump lead. Most bidding would show majors in one hand and minors in the other hand.

The 4-3 nature of the trump suit would often be well known.

 

With either auction(using a Big Club opening and another auction with standard type methods) that I would use to bid to 4Ss, both auctions would show two unbalanced hands that were playing in a 4-3 fit.

 

If the contract happened to get to 6Ss, many defenders would lead a trump to try and stop a cross ruff.

 

The bidding(misbidding?) that resulted in this contract would not give much information away, however, that bidding was only given after the comments about the opening lead were made.

 

Regards,

Robert

[Fluffy]

Dummy is squeezed,  but you can control the situation. The 5th heart can be discarded without any problems. If diamonds are 3-3, everything is fine. If not, I can check the hearts before it is too late.

You would prefer to ruff a ♥ then win when they are 4-3 whoever has the J. Our line doesn't allow these even on ♦3-3. And what is worse,even if LHO is squeezed on 4th trump you do NOT KNOW yet, and your discard from dummy will be blind. That's why I realice now playing ♥KQ after ♣ruff might have a point. (Dunno the exact % of 4-3, but it is above 60%), problem is if they aren't, being ruffed by EITHER opponent will leave you with no chacne at all.

[Kalvan14]

Dummy is squeezed,  but you can control the situation. The 5th heart can be discarded without any problems. If diamonds are 3-3, everything is fine. If not, I can check the hearts before it is too late.

You would prefer to ruff a ♥ then win when they are 4-3 whoever has the J. Our line doesn't allow these even on ♦3-3. And what is worse,even if LHO is squeezed on 4th trump you do NOT KNOW yet, and your discard from dummy will be blind. That's why I realice now playing ♥KQ after ♣ruff might have a point. (Dunno the exact % of 4-3, but it is above 60%), problem is if they aren't, being ruffed by EITHER opponent will leave you with no chacne at all.

Fluffy, if I ruff a club, I reach 11 tricks, and squeeze combinations are better.

I know I loose the chance of Jxxx in hearts.

It is untrue that I have to make a blind discard. After ruffing club, I come back to my hand with A♥, draw a trump ,and - if diamonds are 3-3 - I go back to dummy with K♠ to cash K/Q♥ (and see if the J♥ tumbles down).

If diamonds are 4-2 I have to decide what to play on. If RHO opponent holds 4 diamonds, I can once again follow the same line of play. If LHO holds 4 trumps, I have to decide what suit is better (hearts is more likely, but spades leaves open squeeze chances (Spades/clubs).

[paulg]

Rebound - I think your first line only gives you three diamond tricks, leaving you one short.

 

Kalvan - I basically followed your line except I missed the chance for a squeeze.

 

I think the right line is -

 

win T2 with the diamond queen

ace of clubs

club ruff

trump throwing a *SPADE*

 

Now if diamonds are 4-2 on the left, I have to play the 4th trump and trust the jack of hearts will fall, that is very slightly worse than the 3-3 spade break would have been (35.5% a priori, both a bit better after trumps have broken). Actually RHO had xxxx Jxxx Axx xx and I could - should - have ruffed out the heart.

I think this is the best line, the key point being that you throw a spade when LHO follows to the third trump, preserving chances of ruffing down the ♥J when diamonds break 3-3. If LHO has four trumps, then you need the ♥J to fall in three.

 

However if LHO shows out on the third diamond, then discard a heart and play for a squeeze.

 

Paul

[Fluffy]

If diamonds are 4-2 I have to decide what to play on. If RHO opponent holds 4 diamonds, I can once again follow the same line of play. If LHO holds 4 trumps, I have to decide what suit is better (hearts is more likely, but spades leaves open squeeze chances (Spades/clubs).

I see what you mean. You don't give up on squeeze when RHO has 4♦. Sounds good. It will go down inmediately if ♠3-3 and ♥5-2. But still an improement over playing 4 rounds of trumps.

[Winstonm]

Having thought about this some more, I believe the correct play depends on whether the diamonds are 3/3 or 4/2. As the odds are close to 36% and 49% respectively, the chosen line should be based on an assumed 4/2 break. Any line that relies on ruffing out the heart suit must perforce depend on a 3/3 diamond break.

 

I now think this is the best chance:

 

Win the second diamond on table, cross to the club Ace, cash the heart Ace, and ruff a club. Now cash the K and Q of hearts. By doing this you risk a 27% chance that the A, K, or Q will be ruffed, but 37% of the time the heart Jack will fall singleton, doubleton, or third.

 

If the Jack doesn't come in, cross in spades and lead a big diamond - if LHO plays the highest oustanding spot card guess whether he is false carding or the diamonds really are 3/3 - if your guesser has low batteries, assume the 4/2 and play mechanically, discarding a heart and playing for a squeeze or the spades to be 3/3.

 

Depending on the spade spots, the hand can now be finished as a simple heart/spade squeeze against LHO, or if you are lucky enough to have the K or Q of clubs come down doubleton, a club/spade squeeze, a double-squeeze, or a double guard squeeze (if the spade spots allow it.)

 

This line would make 35% of the time - when diamonds are either 3/3 or 4/2 and the heart jack comes in - along with the additional chances for a squeeze or a simple 3/3 spade break.

 

All in all this line gets up into the 60%+ range I believe.

 

Winston

[Kalvan14]

If diamonds are 4-2 I have to decide what to play on. If RHO opponent holds 4 diamonds, I can once again follow the same line of play. If LHO holds 4 trumps, I have to decide what suit is better (hearts is more likely, but spades leaves open squeeze chances (Spades/clubs).

I see what you mean. You don't give up on squeeze when RHO has 4♦. Sounds good. It will go down inmediately if ♠3-3 and ♥5-2. But still an improement over playing 4 rounds of trumps.

True. But the problem is deciding if either hearts or spades are breaking. At least, I win if the ♥J is doubleton or tripleton; and I keep all the chances of a squeeze if it is Jxxx. Jxxxx vs. xx is a very low chance; however, if Jxxxx is with 4 diamonds, there is an automatic squeeze in the black suits.