double or diamonds?

[whereagles]

Matchpoints, none vuln, you hold:

 

♠ --

♥ AKxxxx

♦ Txx

♣ QJ9x

 

You are playing random weak 2s, and you decide you're too strong for a 2♥ opening, so you open 1♥. Next thing you know, you're at the FIVE-level...

 

You LHO pard RHO

1♥ . dbl . 2♥ . 4♠

??

 

Your options are:

- double, penalties

- 5♥

- pass (not forcing)

 

Pard's 2♥ is normal 3-card raise (4-9 hcp or so). What now?

[pbleighton]

Pass.

 

Your chances of setting 4S appears to be less than 50% (if not, pd will act), and 5H looks hopeless, and will very likely be doubled.

 

Peter

[luke warm]

i know spades are gonna break badly for declarer.. i'd pass but i'm not sure it's best

[mikeh]

pass

 

sacrificing at mps should be done very, very rarely.

 

the 5-level belongs to the opponents: while all aphorisms should be looked at critically, this is a good one at mps.

 

If ♥ are 2-2, we may be going plus against 4♠. If ♥ are 3-1 or worse, we may be out of control in 5♥: we are tapped at rick one, draw trump in 3 rounds and then have to work on our ♣ suit: we may be okay if partner has an honour (even if only the 10) but otherwise this could get ugly. If he has some typical hand (typical for my partners anyway) such as J9xx Jxx KJx xxx, we might be 500 when we should be plus or 800 when we should be -420.

[Kalvan14]

Pass.4♠ may make, but 5♥ at best is likely to be minus 2 doubled. Overall, not worth the gamble

[mr1303]

I pass here. Partner might be able to double 4S with an appropriate holding, and I have a lot of losers.

 

Incidently, what's the reference to diamonds on the topic title? I'm not meant to be bidding 5D as a lead direct or something equally daft am I?

[awm]

I think this is actually pretty close, and would bid 5♥ at favorable. It's also more tempting to sacrifice if the 2♥ bid could be four trumps. Even when 5♥ is "wrong" there's a fair chance the opponents will take the push. Under the actual conditions I would pass, although 5♥ could easily be right.

[Fluffy]

I don't have anything to add, so pass.

[han]

I would also pass. I really prefer to have the 2H bid be less wide ranging, however, I don't think think that a good or bad raise would influence my decision.

[whereagles]

Thx all. hands were[hv=d=w&v=n&w=shakxxxxdtxxcqj9x&e=sqj8xhjxxdqxxxcxx]266|100|Scoring: MP

1♥ dbl 2♥ 4♠

??[/hv]

4♠ does make, but 5♥ goes 3 down.

 

Do you think responder should have raised or bid 1♠?

[kgr]

sacrificing at mps should be done very, very rarely.

Why is this?

I would rather think that you sacrifice less at IMP's.

If opps bid to 4S and you scrifice with 5H then...

...at MP's: if green - you gain a lot if 5H only goes down 3 and opps can make 4S. In the other cases you loose this board.

...at IMP's: you only gain a bit if 5H goes down 3 and opps can make 4S. But you loose a lot if 4S would have gone -1.

I would think that the potential gain/loss percentage is lower at IMP's?

[Blofeld]

Thx all. hands were[hv=d=w&v=n&w=shakxxxxdtxxcqj9x&e=sqj8xhjxxdqxxxcxx]266|100|Scoring: MP

1♥ dbl 2♥ 4♠

??[/hv]

4♠ does make, but 5♥ goes 3 down.

 

Do you think responder should have raised or bid 1♠?

Definitely raised. This is a competitive auction, and the hand is just worth one bid.

[luke warm]

ditto, raise to 2H..

[mike777]

Thx all. hands were<!-- EASTWEST begin --><table border='1'> <tr> <td> <table> <tr> <td>Dealer:</td> <td> West </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vul:</td> <td> None </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Scoring:</td> <td> MP </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td> <table> <tr> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td>  </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td> AKxxxx </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> Txx </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td> QJ9x </td> </tr> </table> </th> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td> QJ8x </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td> Jxx </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> Qxxx </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td> xx </td> </tr> </table> </th> </tr> </table> </td> <td> 1♥ dbl 2♥ 4♠

?? </td> </tr> </table><!-- EASTWEST end -->

4♠ does make, but 5♥ goes 3 down.

 

Do you think responder should have raised or bid 1♠?

Definitely raised. This is a competitive auction, and the hand is just worth one bid.

See Bergen's Bromad to handle these raises over takeout x. Been around for at least 20 years.

[flytoox]

Thx all. hands were

Dealer: West Vul: None Scoring: MP

♠ [space] ♥ AKxxxx ♦ Txx ♣ QJ9x ♠ QJ8x ♥ Jxx ♦ Qxxx ♣ xx

1♥ dbl 2♥ 4♠ ??

4♠ does make, but 5♥ goes 3 down.

 

Do you think responder should have raised or bid 1♠?

Definitely raised. This is a competitive auction, and the hand is just worth one bid.

Not really. If you read Robson's contested auction, then you will find he probably will pass rahter than raise with this hand. The point is that this hand is defensive not offensive.

 

Having said that, I would raise as well. But perhaps this hand shows why we should pass rather than raise.

 

After pd's 2H and RHO's 4S, I think I will bid 5H. This is wrong but the sin might be pd's raise.

[whereagles]

Definitely raised. This is a competitive auction, and the hand is just worth one bid.

Not really. If you read Robson's contested auction, then you will find he probably will pass rahter than raise with this hand. The point is that this hand is defensive not offensive.

 

Having said that, I would raise as well. But perhaps this hand shows why we should pass rather than raise.

 

After pd's 2H and RHO's 4S, I think I will bid 5H. This is wrong but the sin might be pd's raise.

You know what? That was precisely what I thought in the post-mortem.

 

Pard's hand, QJxx Jxx Qxxx xx, at most competes up to 2♥ if opps end up in 2m. If opps end up in 2♠ and pard didn't bid, then it's a fair chance that our side will go plus defending 2♠. So why bid 2♥ right away if you could outbid opps at the 2-level? There is no urge to show support with this hand!

 

This is Robson's point, which he illustrates with other examples: when you have lenght and strenght in opps suit, there is no need to rush and show support. You can do that later. The bottom line is when you DO support, you're automatically showing willingness to outbid opps game/partscore.

 

In this case this is simple: pass the double. If opps bid to 2m, you outbid them. If they bid to 4♠, pard won't be encouraged to bid 5♥. By bidding 2♥ you're showing willingness to go to the 5-level.

 

Obviously this is a lot simpler after having seen the 4 hands. But Robson's principle seems to apply here. Very instructive.

[Al_U_Card]

Since you were "close" to a weak 2H bid, maybe the field will open 2H......either way, had you bid 2H and pard had "bumped" the pre-empt over the dbl, you would not be well placed to make a move..... so don't.

[mikeh]

sacrificing at mps should be done very, very rarely.

Why is this?

I would rather think that you sacrifice less at IMP's.

If opps bid to 4S and you scrifice with 5H then...

...at MP's: if green - you gain a lot if 5H only goes down 3 and opps can make 4S. In the other cases you loose this board.

...at IMP's: you only gain a bit if 5H goes down 3 and opps can make 4S. But you loose a lot if 4S would have gone -1.

I would think that the potential gain/loss percentage is lower at IMP's?

There are a number of reasons.

 

The first is the random nature of most mp fields. On the posted hand, as an example, there will be some 1♠ reponses to the 1♥ opening and this will keep some opposition pairs from finding ♠ or, if they find the suit, from reaching game.

 

Some players will open 2♥ with your hand and that may be enough to get the opps to miss game.

 

We all know how infrequently we see a flat board, even on hands that seem to offer no problem to normal bidding.

 

So in competitive auctions, especially where one player or another has a borderline call at some point, inevitably the par spot is missed at many tables.

 

You may bid 5♥ here and go for 500 against their 620. That will be above average, but you are likely kidding yourself if you estimate a top.

 

And if you misjudge a save, going 100 when they cannot make, the only good news is that in most fields, estimating your matchpoint total will be easy.

 

The main problem is that you are not competing against a pefect field. You are not getting a zero for defending a making 4♠, nor a top for successfully saving, but you are getting a zero for a phantom save and for 800.

 

Whereas in imps, you don't care too much if you go 500 against 420 or even 800 against 620 or 650. And going 100 in a phantom situation is only 4 or 5 imps. While a good save, say 300 against 620, is a worthwhole pickup.

 

I suspect that I am not articulating all of the reasons well, but these are some of the reasons why one of the Bols Bridge Tips of some years back was 'The 5-level belongs to the Opponents'

[beatrix45]

:( 5♥ looks pretty routine to me.

 

We have at least six hearts and two clubs, so all I need is one more trick from pard's hand - club ace or king, diamond ace or king with the ace onside (significantly better than 50% given the bidding) etc. to keep the save at 300 or less.

 

Beating 4♠ is possible, in theory, but it won't happen very often. I'm more concerned they have a small slam. On that basis, 5♥ does make it harder to bid.

[beatrix45]

Thx all. hands were

Dealer: West Vul: None Scoring: MP

♠ [space] ♥ AKxxxx ♦ Txx ♣ QJ9x ♠ QJ8x ♥ Jxx ♦ Qxxx ♣ xx

1♥ dbl 2♥ 4♠ ??

4♠ does make, but 5♥ goes 3 down.

 

Do you think responder should have raised or bid 1♠?

:( Pard's 2♥ raise over the double is fine, IMO. Too bad pard has the 'magic hand' where the sacrifice at 5♥ is too dear. Oh well, next hand please.