Win or duck?

[helene_t]

[hv=d=e&v=n&w=sakxxhat9xxxdjcxx&e=sxhkjxxdaqxxxcaxx]266|100|Scoring: MP

-- -- 1♦ pass

1♥ 1♠ 3♥ pass

6♥ a.p.

North leads ♦6[/hv]

Matchpoints, intermediate opps. According to their reputation, the bidding shows that they both have 13 cards, and the lead of ♦6 shows that North has six of diamonds.

 

If you win with the Ace, you may loose a trump and a club if trumps are 3-0 and you misguess. If you duck, you will loose if the lead is a singleton and North is able to over-ruff the diamond return with the Queen.

[Guest Jlall]

ah matchpoints. This all depends who I am playing against. Against any advanced or better player, or a tricky novice/intermediate I would always duck and ruff with the ten on the way back if it lost.

 

Against a straight forward intermediate, I would probably take the lead for a stiff and pop ace and play the ace of hearts but that is quite a view.

[helene_t]

Why's that, Justin? Because advanced players are less likely to lead a singleton?

 

Btw, ducking is probably more likely to give you an overtrick. But it's unclear how big a fraction of the field will be in slam.

[Trpltrbl]

I don't think more then half the field will be in slam, so making is good enough.

 

GBB :blink:

[PMetsch]

I voted for win the ♦A and play a heart to the ace. Then ruff the 5th ♦ high for a club discard and ruff 2♠ in the dummy. This line will win 12 tricks unless north overcalled on:

 

♠QTxxx

♥

♦Kxxxx

♣???

 

If hearts split 2-1 and diamonds 4-3 then I make 13 tricks.

[Guest Jlall]

Why's that, Justin? Because advanced players are less likely to lead a singleton?

Advanced players are less likely to lead a singleton when holding the trump queen. Advanced players are also very likely to lead a diamond away from the king on this bidding. It is a well known thing to lead away from your king of dummy's side suit to do 1 of two things:

 

1) force declarer to commit to a line at trick one (eliminate possibility of combining chances)

 

2) make him think you have a singleton and be afraid to finesse.

 

This would not be common for an intermediate player though.

 

But as PMetsch wrote, winning the ace will give you the overtrick on a 4-3 break. I overlooked that for some reason, so that makes playing the ace clearly right.

[Fluffy]

The question should be how to make the overtrick, ♦ lead suggests the K, but you can be safer jsut trying for the ♦4-3. It heavily depends on whoom I am playing against. If they are the kind of players unable oto remember a deal after being played I will raise with the ace. Otherwise I would duck.