suit combi

[han]

Matt currently holds ♦97xx, with ♦AQ8x in dummy. Assuming plenty entries in 3NT, how should he play the diamonds?

[han]

edited.

[Guest Jlall]

 

There are a few options to consider.

 

1) cash the ace first, then lead up to dummy. For 3 tricks this will pick up these holdings on left:

 

Kx(2), KT, KJ, JT, Jxx, Txx, KTx(2), KJx(2), KJxx, KTxx, JTxx

 

2) lead small to the queen. This will pick up:

 

Kx(2), KT, KJ, JT, KJx(2), KTx(2), KJxx, KTxx.

 

3) Lead the 9 planning to run it then small to the queen. This will pick up:

 

Kx(2), KT, KJ, JT, Kxx, KJx(2), KTx(2), JTx(2), KJTx(2), JTxx(?), KJTxx.

 

So 1 2 is obviously inferior. Comparing 1 and 3, the differences are 1 picks up Jxx, Txx, KTxx, and JTxx (2 3-2 breaks and 2 4-1 breaks). 3 picks up Kxx, JTx(2), and KJTx(2), KJTxx (3 3-2 breaks and 2 4-1 breaks, 1 5-0 break.). BUT there is a ? by JTxx...why? well if the x's are really x's, If lho has JT65 and covers the 9 then it goes Q K, he will take a trick with the T65. So on perfect defense, and with these spots all being x's, JTxx will not be picked up if you lead the 9. That means line 3 is still better, but it is by a small margin. It is superior against 1 3-2 and 1 5-0, but inferior by a 4-1.

 

[Echognome]

There's another line...

[Guest Jlall]

I guess you could run the 9 then lead small to the 8 picking up KTxx or KJxx onside, and losing to Kxx onside. I guess thats better albeit counter intuitive.

[han]

 

 

Justin, seems like you didn't consider running the nine and when this loses to the jack or 10, running the 7. Compared to line 3 this loses when there is J10 doubleton offside, but wins when there is the stiff J or 10 offside, so seems superior.

 

 

[Echognome]

I guess you could run the 9 then lead small to the 8 picking up KTxx or KJxx onside, and losing to Kxx onside. I guess thats better albeit counter intuitive.

 

It does lead to a common theme in some of these suit combinations. Whenever you can make a double finesse as part of your line, it will often be superior. It also often saves a guess in how you play.

 

Example:

 

AT9x

 

Qxxx

 

 

[sceptic]

I would play the 7 and cover anything or let it ride

 

Then finese the Q

[Chamaco]

A related question about defense and deception given this combination:

 

suppose we are East holding doubleton KJ, and declarer runs the 9 (AQ8x in dummy).

How often do you win the J and how often do you falsecard the K (and do you consider falsecarding with the K reasonable) ?

[cherdano]

A related question about defense and deception given this combination:

 

suppose we are West holding doubleton KJ, and declarer runs the 9 (AQ8x in dummy).

How often do you win the J and how often do you falsecard the K (and do you consider falsecarding with the K reasonable) ?

False-carding seems just wrong to me, unless you can see that declarer has communications problems and cannot test the suit next by cashing the A. Am I missing something?